Improved Volcanic Emissions Forecasting: Integrating Satellite Observations with a Lagrangian and Eulerian Assimilation System

Forecasting the transport of volcanic emissions from explosive eruptions is difficult. Many properties crucial for forecasting volcanic emissions, such as the eruption time/duration and the emissions injection altitude, are frequently estimated from little information. Uncertainty in these parameters can lead to inaccurate short-term volcanic emissions forecasts and highlights the need for an integration of satellite observations with forecasting models. By combining information from satellite observations and model simulations, crucial forecasting parameters can be better constrained to produce more accurate forecasts. In this presentation, the NASA GEOS-5 model is used to forecast volcanic emissions using observations from several satellites, including NPP/OMPS, to improve the accuracy of the resulting GEOS-5 aerosol forecasts. The framework of this integrated volcanic emissions forecasting system is demonstrated with respect to a near-realtime environment.