Tracking South Asian Monsoon in the 21st Century

In this study, we analyze data from Global Climate Models that are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) over the South Asian summer monsoon region for the historic (1970-1999) and the 21st century projection (2006-2100) periods. We apply monsoon depressions tracking algorithm to investigate the accuracy of the simulated processes in the GCMs that control the observed spatial and temporal distribution of South Asian summer monsoon rainfall. We sub-select the GCMs for the future period evaluations based on their ability in the simulation of the low pressure systems tracks that transport moisture over the South Asian land during summer monsoon season in the baseline period. Further, we use selected GCMs to understand the effect of increase in greenhouse forcing on the frequency and tracks of the low-pressure systems during summer monsoon season, and on the moisture sources.