An Overview of the Current and Future NOAA/NWS/NCEP Operational Modeling Suite

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Environmental Modeling Center (NCEP/EMC) is developing significant improvements into NCEP's operational forecast systems to increase both the scope and quality of NCEP's products. Ranging from seasonal to interannual prediction and climate reanalysis to hourly rapid updates, NCEP/EMC has advanced the quality of its products and is ready to make further improvements through model enhancements and new computing resources. Forecast advances in global and regional atmospheric systems, real-time ocean and waves, hurricanes, air quality and hydrological applications will be described. Modernization of the NCEP production suite is underway with construction of a software framework compatible with the community-based Earth System Modeling Framework and development of ensemble-based postprocessing techniques for generation of probabilistic products. Work has begun on advanced data assimilation techniques and preparation for the advanced satellite and radar data is in progress. The paper will provide an overview of the current NCEP operational model suite and plans for the next 5 years.