26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Program Chairs: Andrew L. Molthan , NASA/MSFC ; Kelly M. Mahoney , CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 1 February 2014

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 1 February 2014


Registration for Student Conference and Short Courses

Sunday, 2 February 2014

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


Registration for Short Courses and Conference for Early Career Professionals

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


Registration Open for Annual Meeting

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


WeatherFest

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


94th Annual Review, New Fellows, and Featured Awards
Location: Room C302 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

Monday, 3 February 2014

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Registration Continues through February 5

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
14th Presidential Forum: Extreme Weather, Climate, and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools
Location: Thomas Murphy Ballroom (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Superstorm Sandy and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
Moderator: Margaret Davidson, NOAA/Office for Coastal Management
Panelists: Leslie Chapman-Henderson, Federal Alliance for Safe Homes; David Perkes, Mississippi State Univ.; Ellis Stanley, Hammerman & Gainer International, Inc.; David W. Titley, Penn State University; Peter Kareiva, The Nature Conservancy
Speaker: Andy Revkin, Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times, and Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding, Pace University
  9:00 AM
Welcoming Remarks

  9:05 AM
PL1.1
The New Communication Climate - An exploration of tools and traits that give the best chance of success in facing a fast-forward media landscape and changing climate
Andy Revkin, Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times, and Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding, Pace University, New York, NY
  9:25 AM
Panel Discussion

  10:25 AM
Concluding Remarks

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Spouses' Coffee

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 1A
Analysis and Forecasting of Heavy Precipitation and Flooding I
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jonathan J. Gourley, NOAA/NSSL; Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University

Presentations on analysis and forecasting techniques focusing on heavy precipitation events, flooding, and related topics.
  11:00 AM
1A.1
  11:45 AM
1A.4
Probabilistic Flash Flood Forecasting using Stormscale Ensembles
Jill D. Hardy, NSF, Norman, OK; and J. J. Gourley, J. S. Kain, A. J. Clark, D. R. Novak, and Y. Hong
Recording files available
Session 1B
Forecast Center Overviews I: Recent Developments and Future Goals for NOAA Numerical Weather Prediction
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Chair: David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS
  11:00 AM
1B.1
An Overview of the Current and Future NOAA/NWS/NCEP Operational Modeling Suite
William Lapenta, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and J. C. Derber, G. DiMego, M. B. Ek, M. Iredell, S. Moorthi, V. Tallapragada, H. L. Tolman, and Y. Zhu
  11:30 AM
1B.2
The NOAA Environmental Modeling System at NCEP
Mark Iredell, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and T. Black and W. Lapenta

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Town Hall Meeting: NOAA’s Weather Modeling Strategy
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

In the wake of recent disasters, such as Hurricane Sandy, there is a new community awareness of the operational high-performance computing needs of NOAA. In response, NOAA is investing substantial additional resources to increase its operational computing capacity. The target of a 2 petaflop machine in 2018 represents a 10-fold increase from computing resources in 2013. These resources afford a rapid and radical evolution of the operational NOAA modeling suite over the next five years. However, to make it the best end-to-end system necessitates an unprecedented coordination among the modeling, forecaster, academic, and private sector user-communities. In an effort to foster this coordination, the AMS Board for Operational Government Meteorologists and the AMS Weather Analysis and Forecasting Committee are sponsoring a Town Hall Meeting on NOAA’s strategy for operational numerical weather prediction. In particular, the Town Hall will discuss NOAA’s strategy for applying these high performance computing resources to improve operational weather forecasting. NOAA officials will be present to explain the strategy and discuss current plans for the modeling system evolution. Special emphasis will be placed on plans to implement a global 10 km forecast system and the implementation of a CONUS storm scale ensemble. Representatives from the forecaster, academic, and private sector community will be present to discuss the opportunities and challenges the rapid evolution of the model suite presents. For additional information, please contact Trisha Palmer (e-mail: trisha.palmer@noaa.gov.
  12:15 PM
NWS Director Remarks: Louis Uccellini
  12:30 PM
Lapenta Remarks: WIlliam Lapenta

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Forecast Center Overviews II: Developments in NOAA Operational or Experimental Modeling Systems
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )
Cochairs: Trisha D. Palmer, NOAA/NWSFO; Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC
  1:30 PM
J1.1
The Rapid Refresh: Operational Upgrade to Version 2 at NCEP and Further Development Toward Version 3
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, M. Hu, T. G. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, C. Alexander, G. S. Manikin, E. P. James, J. M. Brown, P. Hofmann, D. C. Dowell, and H. Lin
  1:45 PM
J1.2
The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh: Recent Model and Data Assimilation Development Towards an Operational Implementation in 2014
Curtis Alexander, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, M. Hu, T. G. Smirnova, J. B. Olson, J. M. Brown, E. P. James, and P. Hofmann
  2:00 PM
J1.3
  2:15 PM
J1.4
NCEP regional ensemble update: current systems and planned storm-scale ensembles
Jun Du, Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and G. DiMego, B. Zhou, D. Jovic, B. Yang, B. Ferrier, G. Manikin, M. Pyle, E. Rogers, Y. Zhu, and S. Benjamin
Recording files available
Session 2
Analysis and Forecasting of Heavy Precipitation and Flooding II
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University; Jonathan J. Gourley, NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

Presentations on analysis and forecasting techniques focusing on heavy precipitation events, flooding, and related topics.
  1:30 PM
2.1
  1:45 PM
2.2
Precipitation and Temperature Forecast Performance at the Weather Prediction Center
David Novak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and C. Bailey, K. F. Brill, P. Burke, W. Hogsett, R. Rausch, and M. Schichtel
  2:00 PM
2.3
Diagnosing high-impact precipitation events from mass fields: The Extreme Precipitation Index (EPI)
Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and E. H. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum
  2:15 PM
2.4
The Role of Hurricane Ernesto (2006) in a Predecessor Rainfall Event
Jordan Dale, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. G. Lackmann

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Poster Session 1
Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC

Poster Session 1 Poster Session 1: Posters covering the topics of: Analysis and Forecasting of Precipitation and Flooding; Forecast Centers; Other Weather Analysis and Forecasting Contributions
 
97
 
98
 
100
The Influence of the Balcones Escarpment on Forecasting Major South Central Texas Rainfall Events
Alexandra M., Keclik, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. S. Schumacher

Handout (5.9 MB)

 
101
Examining high resolution ensemble QPF for case studies of flash flooding
Gina Hodges, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. J. Gourley and Y. Hong

 
102
Meso-scale analysis and warning dicussion on“2011.6.9” heavy rainfall event in Hunan province
Minghui Tang, Hunan meteorological bureau, Changsha, Hunan, China; and Y. Tian, C. Zhou, and C. Ye
Manuscript (771.4 kB)

Handout (4.2 MB)

 
104
Numerical simulation diagnostic of a flash flood event in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Ahmad E. Samman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and W. R. Cotton and G. Carrió

 
107
Vertical resolution increase of the Japan Meteorological Agency Global Spectral Model
Takafumi Kanehama, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and H. Yonehara, M. Ujiie, R. Sekiguchi, T. Kinami, T. Kadowaki, Y. Hayashi, S. Yabu, T. Tokuhiro, and M. Nakagawa

Handout (2.8 MB)

 
108
Pressure Signatures of Extreme Weather Events Deduced from Earthscope's USArray Network
Alexander A. Jacques, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. Horel

Handout (2.5 MB)

 
109
Untangling the Effects of Latent Heat Release on an Extratropical Cyclone Using Potential Vorticity Analysis
Gregory Tierney, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt

 
110
 
111
Impacts of the Upper Level Rossby Wave Packets on Medium-range Forecast Errors and Uncertainties
Minghua Zheng, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and E. K. M. Chang and B. A. Colle

 
112
Air Bubble Effects on Long Waves
Nikhil Chandra Sarkar, BRAC University, Dhaka, Bangladesh; and S. K. Debsarma, A. Nishat, and N. Mukherjee

 
113
Eastern Dryline Climatology and Synoptic-Scale Environment
Rebecca Duell, University of Nebraska - Lincoln, Lincoln, NE; and M. S. Van Den Broeke
Manuscript (410.0 kB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

 
114
An Evaluation of the Gustiness of Wind and Possible Causes on the Summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire
Thomas G. Padham, Mount Washington Observatory, North Conway, NH; and E. P. Kelsey

 
115
A Study on Relations between the Occurrence of Strong-wind and the Boundary from the Water Vapor Satellite Images
Jeoung-Yun Kim, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, South Korea; and J. Jung, I. G. Kim, S. Kim, J. Shin, B. J. Kim, and J. K. Park

 
116
Significant Early Fall Anchorage Wind Storm
James A. Nelson Jr., NOAA/NWS, Anchorage, AK


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 3A
Forecast Center Overviews III: Other Forecast Centers
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: R. Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency; Carolyn Reynolds, NRL

Keynote presentations from large-scale weather analysis and forecasting centers, operational headquarters, and model developers on recent, ongoing, and future research activities.
  4:00 PM
3A.1
The Met Office NWP system - status and longer term plans
Gilbert Brunet, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
  4:30 PM
3A.2
U.S. Air Force Numerical Weather Prediction Capabilities and Initiatives
John Egentowich, Air Force Weather, Washington, DC

  5:00 PM
3A.3
Overview of the Navy's Coupled Mesoscale Modeling System
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, S. Chen, S. Gabersek, T. Haack, E. Hendricks, R. M. Hodur, T. R. Holt, X. Hong, Q. Jiang, H. Jin, Y. Jin, J. R. Moskaitis, J. E. Nachamkin, P. A. Reinecke, J. Schmidt, S. Wang, and L. Xu
  5:15 PM
3A.4
Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM)
Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. F. Hogan, C. A. Reynolds, N. L. Baker, B. Ruston, J. A. Ridout, M. Liu, J. R. Moskaitis, T. R. Whitcomb, and S. Eckermann
Recording files available
Session 3B
Other Contributions to Weather Analysis and Forecasting
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC; Edward J. Szoke, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/GSD
  4:00 PM
3B.1
A New Spin on Vorticity Advection: Application to Upper Frontogenesis
Jonathan E. Martin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI
  4:15 PM
3B.2
The Epic Eastern North American Warm Episode of March 2012
Justin Arnott, NOAA/NWS, Gaylord, MI; and R. H. Grumm and J. Halblaub
  4:30 PM
3B.3
Multi-Year High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Forecast Climatology
Eric P. James, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, B. D. Jamison, and S. G. Benjamin

  4:45 PM
3B.4
An Analysis of Dryline Structure and Propagation Influenced by the Black Hills
Erin R. Walter, South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD; and A. J. French, W. J. Capehart, and D. Clabo
  5:15 PM
3B.6
The Complexity of Weather Forecasting in the Presidential Range of the White Mountains, New Hampshire
Michael A. Carmon, Mount Washington Observatory, North Conway, NH; and E. P. Kelsey

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Reception and Exhibits Opening

Tuesday, 4 February 2014

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 4A
Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Convective Storms I
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State College of Denver; Walker S. Ashley, Northern Illinois Univ.
  8:30 AM
4A.1A
  9:00 AM
4A.3
  9:30 AM
4A.5
An assessment of 26 April 2011 Pre-Frontal Squall Line in Kentucky
Emily Y. Thornton, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY; and J. D. Durkee and R. Mahmood
Recording files available
Session 4B
New Tools for Decision Support Services
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Edward Szoke, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory; R. Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency
  8:30 AM
4B.1
National Demonstration and Evaluation of a Real Time Lightning Jump Algorithm for Operational Use
Themis Chronis, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and C. J. Schultz, E. V. Schultz, L. D. Carey, K. M. Calhoun, D. M. Kingfield, K. L. Ortega, M. T. Filiaggi, G. J. Stumpf, G. T. Stano, and S. Goodman
  8:45 AM
4B.2
Lightning Tracking Tool for Assessment of Total Cloud Lightning within AWIPS II
Jason E. Burks, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and G. T. Stano and K. Sperow
  9:00 AM
4B.3
Integration of RGB "Dust" Imagery to Operations at the Albuquerque Forecast Office
Kevin K. Fuell, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and B. Guyer and D. Kann
  9:15 AM
4B.4
Using Simulated Satellite Imagery to Visualize Model Forecasts
Daniel T. Lindsey, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and L. Grasso, D. Bikos, and E. J. Szoke
  9:30 AM
4B.5
One Billion Dollars a Year: Mitigating Livestock Losses with the Cold Advisory for Newborn Livestock
Tanja Fransen, NOAA/NWS, Glasgow, MT; and K. L. Frank, W. J. Martin, and L. Kalkstein

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Spouses' Coffee

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

Joint Poster Session 1
Posters: Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL
 
118
Ensemble-Based Analysis of Factors Contributing to the 14 June 2010 Oklahoma City Flood
Nathan Dahl, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
Manuscript (2.6 MB)

 
119
CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System: Impact of IC and LBC perturbations
Fanyou Kong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., J. S. Kain, and S. J. Weiss
Manuscript (727.4 kB)

 
120
Improvements in the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System
Ronald Frenette, EC, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. Charron, A. Erfani, and N. Gagnon

Handout (406.1 kB)

 
121
The Development of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Yuejian Zhu, EMC, College Park, MD; and D. Hou, X. Zhou, R. Wobus, M. Pena, and J. Peng

 
122
Operational Multi-model Medium Range Forecasting: A NUOPC Update
David McCarren, Navy/CNMOC, Silver Springs, MD; and S. Sandgathe, F. Toepfer, and Y. Zhu

 
123
Anomaly Forecast—Useful Tool for Extreme Weather Detection
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and B. Yang

 
124
Time-Lagged 3-km Ensemble High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecasts for Key Convective Storm, Fire Weather and Wind Energy Events in 2013
Curtis Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. S. Weygandt, D. C. Dowell, and E. P. James

 
125
An Evaluation of the Impact of Increased Horizontal Grid Spacing on SREF Performance
Isidora Jankov, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, J. Du, G. DiMego, Y. Zhu, B. G. Brown, E. Mirvis, and Z. toth

 
126
The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF)
Ligia R. Bernardet, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov, S. Albers, K. Mahoney, T. Workoff, F. Barthold, W. Hogsett, D. Reynolds, and J. Du

 
127
Ensemble Data Assimilation in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) during CONCORDIASI (2010)
Matthew S. Elliott, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo and D. B. Parsons

 
128
A neighborhood-based probability of precipitation forecasting technique: Further testing
Michael C. Kochasic, NOAA/NWS, Goodland, KS; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

 
129
Probabilistic Global Convective Hazard Forecasts and Verification
R. Stretton, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. Buchanan, W. Hand, D. Suri, and S. Willington
Manuscript (531.2 kB)

Handout (753.9 kB)

 
132
The Impact of Forecast Error Growth on the Medium-Range Predictability of a European Cyclone
William S. Lamberson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn and L. F. Bosart

 
133
Preliminary results of ETKF based ensemble precipitation prediction over the Korean Peninsula
Jun Kyung Kay, Yonsei University, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, South Korea; and H. M. Kim

 
134
Ensemble Cloud Forecasting to Enable Free-Space Optical Communications
Billy D. Felton, Northrop Grumann Corporation, McLean, VA; and R. J. Alliss


Poster Session 2
Severe Convective Storms; Decision Support; Ensemble NWP; Forecast Verification
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC; Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

Poster Session 2 Poster Session 2: Posters on the topics of: Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Convective Storms; NWP Ensemble Guidance, Prob&Stat Applications of NWP Ensemble Forecasts; Forecast Verification Techniques; Decision Support Services
 
Poster 135 will now be presented as paper 5.2A

 
137
Relating Total Lightning and Storm Microphysics to In-Cloud Convective Turbulence
Sarah A. Al-Momar, Plymouth State University, Toledo, OH; and W. Deierling, J. K. Williams, D. R. Adriaansen, and M. K. Politovich

Handout (1022.4 kB)

 
138
Assimilating Kentucky Mesonet observations in a real-time forecasting system at the Kentucky Climate Center
Eric Rappin, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood and S. A. Foster

 
141
Analysis of Lightning Trends Prior to the Occurrence of Severe Weather Events
Eric Wendoloski, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and C. Sloop and C. Liu

 
142
Using Total Lightning Cell Tracking to Improve Convective Nowcasts
Mark Hoekzema, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD

 
144
Differentiating Between Warned and Unwarned Tornadoes in California
Kayla M. Jordan, WeatherExtreme Ltd., Fallbrook, CA; and S. P. Bone

 
146
Climatology of Tornadoes in the British Isles (1980–2012)
Kelsey Mulder, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and D. M. Schultz

Handout (11.2 MB)

 
150
Synoptic-scale precursors, characteristics, and typing of nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Complexes in the Great Plains
Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and C. M. Kelly

 
151
High Resolution WRF Simulation and Climatological Analysis of Severe Weather Events during the North American Monsoon
Megan Jares, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. L. Castro, H. I. Chang, C. Carrillo, J. J. Mazon, J. Stutler, and J. J. Brost

 
153
Hurricane Force Winds in Extratropical Cyclones: The Role of Frontogenesis and Frontolysis
Benjamin Albright, Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and J. M. Sienkiewicz

 
154
Far Upstream Precursors to Severe and Extreme Weather over the Midwestern United States
Jason M. Cordeira, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH; and N. D. Metz

 
156
Verifying WRF ensemble forecasts of updraft helicity
Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and G. Romine, R. J. Trapp, and S. Tessendorf

 
157
Multiscale Characteristics of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Perturbation Evolution in Warm Season Precipitation Forecasts
Aaron T. Johnson, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, M. Xue, F. Kong, G. Zhao, Y. Wang, K. W. Thomas, K. Brewster, and J. Gao

 
158
Neighborhood-based verification of high resolution ensemble forecast system in KMA
SeHyun Kim, Yonsei Univ, Seoul, South Korea; and H. M. Kim

 
160
3D-mask for the ETR Initialization in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Juhui Ma, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Y. Zhu

 
161
An Automatic Wind Warning System for Construction Projects
Martin Gauthier, RWDI, Calgary, AB, Canada; and R. J. Chapman, J. R. Lundgren, D. M. Cherneski, M. P. Gibbons, and C. De Jong

 
163
Development and Testing of a Layer Precipitable Water Product to Aid Forecasting of Heavy Precipitation and Flooding
Stanley Q. Kidder, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. M. Forsythe and K. K. Fuell

 
166
The Model Evaluation Tools (MET) Update
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, R. Bullock, T. Jensen, B. Brown, K. Newman, N. Rehak, and J. Prestopnik

 
167
USAF Use of an Editable Weather System for Decision Support Services
Jeffrey A. Fries, United States Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt Air Force Base, NE

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 2
Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques I
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL; Daniel Hodyss, NRL

Presentations featuring advancements or applications in ensemble prediction techniques, including modeling developments, new statistical techniques, and their applications.
  11:00 AM
J2.1
Algorithmic decision-making under weather uncertainty in atmospheric science field campaigns: a summary
Christopher J. Hanlon, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. A. Small III, J. Verlinde, and G. S. Young
  11:15 AM
J2.2
Applying Statistical Decision Theory to a Field Experiment with Multiple Research Objectives: The DC3 Campaign
Christopher J. Hanlon, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. A. Small III, S. Bose, G. Young, and J. Verlinde
  11:30 AM
J2.3
  11:45 AM
J2.4
Representing model uncertainty in data assimilation with stochastic physics
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and P. Pegion and T. Hamill
Recording files available
Session 5
Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Convective Storms II
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Chad M. Gravelle, CIMSS - Univ. of Wisconsin / NWS Operations Proving Ground; Mariana Scott, University of Alabama
  11:00 AM
5.1
  11:15 AM
5.2A
Total Lightning as an Indicator of Mesocyclone Behavior
Sarah M. Stough, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and L. D. Carey and C. J. Schultz
Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 5
Impacts of Aerosols on Storm Dynamics, Cloud Physics, and Precipitation–I
Location: Room C207 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions )
Chair: Hugh Morrison, NCAR
CoChair: Zachary J. Lebo, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
  11:00 AM
TJ5.1
The Impact of Aerosol Prediction in Cloud-Scale Numerical Prediction Models (Invited)
Jason A. Milbrandt, EC, Dorval, QC, Canada; and P. A. Makar and W. Gong
  11:30 AM
TJ5.2
Aerosol-Aware Bulk Microphysics Scheme: A sensitivity study of Hurricane Earl
Yaítza Luna-Cruz, Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and G. Thompson, G. Jenkins, and T. Eidhammer
  11:45 AM
TJ5.3
Assessing the Impact of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions on NWP
Adrian Hill, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and B. Shipway

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Lunch Break

Stanley a. Changnon Luncheon
Location: Room B401 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques II
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL; Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL

Presentations featuring advancements or applications in ensemble prediction techniques, including modeling developments, new statistical techniques, and their applications.
  1:30 PM
J3.1
Convective-scale Warn-on-Forecast
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker
  2:00 PM
J3.3
Producing Reforecast-Calibrated Extended-Range Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts
Francisco M. Alvarez, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO; and T. M. Hamill, T. P. Eichler, and C. E. Graves

  2:15 PM
J3.4
  2:30 PM
J3.5
  2:45 PM
J3.6
Outside the Envelope: When Ensemble Forecasts Go Awry
Trevor I. Alcott, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT
Recording files available
Session 6
Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Convective Storms III
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Chad M. Gravelle, CIMSS - Univ. of Wisconsin / NWS Operations Proving Ground; Sam Ng, Metropolitan State College of Denver
  1:30 PM
6.1
Use of DYMECS Observations to Validate the Representation of Convection over the UK in High Resolution Versions of the Unified Model
Humphrey W. Lean, Met Office, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom; and K. E. Hanley, C. Halliwell, T. H. M. Stein, R. Hogan, J. Nicol, B. Plant, and P. Clark

  1:45 PM
6.2
North Pacific Precursors to a Multi-Day Severe Weather Outbreak over the United States
Nicholas D. Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and H. M. Archambault and L. F. Bosart
  2:00 PM
6.3
  2:15 PM
6.4
Automating tornado debris signature detection in the United States
Steve Honey, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and W. Sheridan and T. Hutchinson
  2:45 PM
6.6

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques III
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR

Presentations featuring advancements or applications in ensemble prediction techniques, including modeling developments, new statistical techniques, and their applications.
  3:30 PM
J4.1
A First Look at the Meteorological Development Laboratory's Experimental ECMWF MOS System
David Rudack, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. P. Ruth, K. K. Gilbert, and T. Curtis
  3:45 PM
J4.2
Stochastic tendency in a global atmospheric model
Myung-Seo Koo, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and S. Y. Hong
  4:00 PM
J4.3
Accounting for Varying Variances in Ensemble Post-Processing
Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop
  4:30 PM
J4.5
  4:45 PM
J4.6
Distinct Characteristics of Hurricane Ensemble Forecasts using Physical Parameterizations vs. Stochastic Perturbations
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and F. Judt, J. Berner, C. Y. Lee, M. Curcic, C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno

Recording files available
Session 7
Analysis and Forecasting of Severe Convective Storms IV
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee; Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University
  3:30 PM
7.1
The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX): An Ensemble-Forecast-Based Mesoscale Field Campaign
Morris Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Trapp, L. Bosart, J. M. Brown, C. Davis, D. C. Dowell, G. Romine, R. S. Schumacher, D. J. Stensrud, and R. D. Torn
  3:45 PM
7.2
Overview and preliminary results of mobile upsonde operations during the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and M. C. Coniglio, R. J. Trapp, M. E. Baldwin, and D. J. Stensrud
  4:00 PM
7.3
  4:15 PM
7.4
The Role of an Upper-level Potential Vorticity Anomaly in a Severe Weather Outbreak During MPEX
Corey T. Guastini, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart
  4:30 PM
7.5
Assimilation of POES Radiance Observations and NCEP Conventional Observations in GSI for Tornado Outbreak Prediction
Erin A. Thead, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and A. E. Mercer and J. Dyer
  4:45 PM
7.6
Assimilating satellite retrievals and radar observations in a convection permitting model
Thomas A. Jones, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and D. J. Stensrud, P. Minnis, and R. Palikonda
  5:00 PM
7.7
Improved Convective Scale Prediction from the Assimilation of Rapid-Scan Phased Array Radar Data
Louis J. Wicker, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, T. E. Thompson, D. J. Stensrud, and P. L. Heinselman

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 1
Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture
Location: Room C106 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2013; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
  5:00 PM
L1.1
Towards a general theory of global monsoons (Invited Presentation)
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

Wednesday, 5 February 2014

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Applications of Data Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction I: Ensemble and Hybrid Data Assimilation
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC; Clay B. Blankenship, NASA/MSFC (USRA)
  8:30 AM
J5.1
Real-time mesoscale analysis and prediction with NCAR 4D-REKF
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Pan, Y. Wu, A. Bourgeois, J. Knieval, J. Hacker, J. C. Pace, F. Gallagher, and S. Halvorson
  9:30 AM
J5.5
Evaluation of enhancements to the Rapid Refresh GSI 3DVAR-ensemble hybrid data assimilation system
Ming Hu, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and D. C. Dowell, S. S. Weygandt, S. G. Benjamin, J. S. Whitaker, and C. Alexander
Recording files available
Session 8
Analysis and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones I
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Patrick A. Harr, NPS; Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather
  8:45 AM
8.2
  9:00 AM
8.3
Upper-Tropospheric Precursors Associated with Subtropical Cyclone Formation in the North Atlantic Basin
Alicia M. Bentley, University at Albany, State University of New York, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart
  9:15 AM
8.4
  9:30 AM
8.5
A Climatology of Central American Gyres
Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. S. Griffin, L. F. Bosart, and R. D. Torn
  9:45 AM
8.6

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Spouses' Coffee

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 8
Applications of Data Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction II: Remote Sensing
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Zhaoxia Pu, Univ. of Utah; Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC
  10:30 AM
J8.1
Assimilation of Dual-Polarimetric Radar Observations with WRF GSI
Xuanli Li, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and J. R. Mecikalski, T. Fehnel, B. T. Zavodsky, and J. Srikishen
  11:15 AM
J8.4
Convective Initiation and 0-6 hr Storm Nowcasting for GOES-R
John R. Mecikalski, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and C. P. Jewett, S. Weygandt, T. L. Smith, A. K. Heidinger, W. Straka, and S. Benjamin
  11:30 AM
J8.5
Recording files available
Session 9
Analysis and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones II
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS; Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather
  11:15 AM
9.4
  11:30 AM
9.5
Forecasting Hurricane Irene -- from Storm Formation until Unexpected Weakening
Barry H. Lynn, Hebrew Univ., Jerusalem, Israel; and A. Khain, J. W. Bao, T. Yuan, and S. A. Michelson
  11:45 AM
9.6
Probabilistic Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Intensity for the North Atlantic
James I. Belanger, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and M. T. Jelinek, J. A. Curry, and P. J. Webster

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Lunch Break

Women in the Atmospheric Sciences Luncheon: A Conversation about the Future
Location: Room C112 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Lecture 2
Horton Lecture
Location: Georgia Ballroom 1 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Seventh Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
Recording files available
Joint Session 9
Applications of Data Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction III: Coupled Systems
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc.; Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC
  1:30 PM
J9.1
  1:45 PM
J9.2A
  2:00 PM
J9.3
Coupled Weather-Fire Modeling of Landscape-Scale Wildland Fires: Understanding & Prediction
Janice L. Coen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. J. Riggan, W. Schroeder, and M. A. Shapiro

  2:15 PM
J9.4
Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department
Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc., Huntsville, AL; and J. Mungai, V. Sakwa, E. Kabuchanga, B. T. Zavodsky, and A. S. Limaye
Recording files available
Session 10
Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather I
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University; R. Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency

Presentations on various aspects of predicting winter weather, such as heavy snowfall, mesoscale snow bands, use of new observing systems, examinations of significant midlatitude snowstorms, and other topics.
  1:30 PM
10.1
  1:45 PM
10.2
Predictability Aspects of Two Severe European Winter Storms
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, C. A. Reynolds, and P. A. Reinecke
  2:00 PM
10.3A
  2:15 PM
10.4
The Weather Channel Approach to the Naming of High-Impact Winter Storms in the Continental U.S
Thomas Niziol, The Weather Company, Atlanta, GA; and B. Rose, S. Ostro, B. Norcross, and P. Neilley

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

Poster Session 3
Tropical Cyclones & Winter Weather; NWP physics and data assimilation
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC; Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

Poster Session 3 Poster Session 3: Posters on the topics of: Analysis and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones; Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather; NWP Microphysics; Data Assimilation
 
574
The Influence of the Low-Level Jet Upon the Overland Reintensification of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)
Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and R. S. Schumacher

Handout (2.5 MB)

 
576
A Diagnostic Phase Space for the Structural State of Pre-genesis Tropical Convective Systems
Charles N. Helms, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and J. P. Dunion and L. F. Bosart

 
577
New Vortex Initialization Scheme for the NCEP's HWRF Model
In-Hyuk Kwon, KIAPS (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems), Seoul, South Korea; and V. Tallapragada, Y. C. Kwon, M. Tong, and B. Zhang

Handout (1.5 MB)

 
579
The Galvez-Davison Index for Tropical Convection
Jose Manuel Galvez, SRG / NOAA / National Weather Service, College Park, MD; and M. Davison

 
580
Experimental Model Evaluations for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Louisa B. Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, P. A. Kucera, K. M. Newman, J. L. Vigh, and C. L. Williams

Handout (1.8 MB)

 
581
Formation of Tropical Cyclone Spiral Rainbands in a 3-D Cloud-Resolving Model
Diamilet Perez-Betancourt, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

 
582
Analysis of the origins of east Pacific easterly waves
Ernesto W. Findlay, University At albany, Albany, NY; and A. V. Rydbeck and E. D. Maloney

 
584
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification: Multivariate Attributes and Rapid Intensity Change
Christopher L. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland, P. A. Kucera, L. B. Nance, and K. M. Newman

 
585
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting: Predictability and Uncertainty
Falko Judt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

 
586
Ensemble Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Totals in Varying Synoptic Environments
Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

 
587
Case Study on the Difference of the Analyzed Typhoon Positions of Typhoon Centers over western North Pacific Region
Ki-ho Chang, National Typhoon Center / KMA, Jeju, South Korea; and W. Lee, K. Y. Byun, W. S. Yoon Sr., and J. H. Lee

 
588
Comparison Of Extratropical Cyclones Process Among Yyphoon Forecasting Model Using Cyclone Phase Space
Na InChae, National Typhoon Center / KMA, Jeju, South Korea; and W. J. Lee, J. Kim Sr., K. H. Chang, N. Y. Kang, and J. H. Lee

 
589
Case study on the formation of snowfall in a basin covered by the stratiformed precipitation system with an extratropic cyclone in winter
Tetsuya Sano, University of Yamanashi, Kofu, Yamanashi, Japan; and T. Suetsugi and S. Oishi
Manuscript (4.3 MB)

Handout (5.1 MB)

 
590
Numerical Modeling of a Historic Storm: Simulating the Blizzard of 1888
Allison Claire Michaelis, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and G. Lackmann

 
Poster 591 will now be presented as 10.3A

 
592
Analysis and Predictability of the Wasatch Windstorm of 1 December 2011
John Lawson, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and J. D. Horel

 
594
Observational Analysis and Numerical Simulations of a Lake-Effect Snow Event over Lake Tahoe
Brian Crow, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and N. Laird and N. D. Metz

 
595
Dynamical and Thermodynamic Processes Contributing to Thundersnow Events
Kyle J. Meier, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser, L. F. Bosart, and M. L. Jurewicz Sr.

 
596
 
597
Banded convection in Colorado snowstorms: insights obtained from X-band radar observations and numerical simulations
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge, M. R. Kumjian, P. Kennedy, and R. H. Johnson

Handout (10.4 MB)

 
598
An Objective Forecast Study for Northwest Flow Snow Events in the Southwestern Pennsylvania Region
Karly Bitsura-Meszaros, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

 
599
Comparisons of cloud microphysics schemes implemented in KIAPS-GM
In-Jin Choi, Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, South Korea; and S. Y. Bae and E. K. Jin

 
601
Monthly Forecast Improvement with Stratospheric Winds
W.F.J. Evans, North West Research Associates, Redmond, WA; and D. C. Fritts, L. L. Gordley, and M. J. McHugh

 
602
 
603
Assimilation of satellite and radar observations in a convection-resolving Observing System Simulation Experiment
Rebecca M. Cintineo, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. A. Otkin, T. A. Jones, S. Koch, L. J. Wicker, and D. J. Stensrud

 
605
The Potential for Self-Organizing Maps to Identify Model Error Structures
Walter C. Kolczynski Jr., NPS, Monterey, CA; and J. Hacker

 
Poster 606 will now be presented as 13.4A


Joint Poster Session 5
Poster Session on Transitions from Research to Operations
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); and the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems )
 
Poster 741 has been moved. Will now be 2.1A

 
742
A New Method for Calculating Vertical Motion in Isentropic Space
Michael Simpson, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO

Handout (389.6 kB)

 
886
Research to Operations, Possibilities for Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance in the next 25 years
Thomas Sparn, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and P. Pilewskie, P. Withnell, and G. Kopp

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 10
Applications of Data Assimilation in Numerical Weather Prediction IV: Mesoscale Data Assimilation
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS) )
Cochairs: Xuguang Wang, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma; Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC
  4:00 PM
J10.1
Storm-scale data assimilation and ensemble forecasting for Warn-on-Forecast
Dustan M. Wheatley, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. C. Dowell, K. H. Knopfmeier, M. Hu, and C. Alexander
  4:45 PM
J10.4
Evaluation of the NSSL Mesoscale Ensemble during the High-Impact Severe Weather Events of May 2013
Kent H. Knopfmeier, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Wheatley, G. J. Creager, M. Coniglio, D. C. Dowell, J. Correia Jr., and A. J. Clark
  5:00 PM
J10.5
Mesoscale Pressure Assimilation: A New Revolution for Research and Operations?
Clifford Mass, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and L. E. Madaus
  5:15 PM
J10.6
Modeling Studies of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers and Orographic Precipitation over Northern California
Arthur John Eiserloh Jr., San Jose State University, San Jose, CA; and S. Chiao and D. Stevens
Recording files available
Session 11
Analysis and Forecasting of Winter Weather II
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Justin Arnott, NOAA/NWS; R. Bruce Telfeyan, Air Force Weather Agency

Presentations on various aspects of predicting winter weather, such as heavy snowfall, mesoscale snow bands, use of new observing systems, examinations of significant midlatitude snowstorms, and other topics.
  4:00 PM
11.1
  4:15 PM
11.2
A Climatology of Lower Stratospheric Fronts in North America
Hannah E. Attard, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang
  4:30 PM
11.3
Sources of uncertainty in precipitation type determination and forecasting
Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Elmore, A. V. Ryzhkov, T. J. Schuur, K. L. Ortega, and J. Krause
  4:45 PM
11.4
  5:00 PM
11.5
The Motion of Mesoscale Snowbands in Northeast U.S. Winter Storms
Jaymes S. Kenyon, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and M. S. Evans

  5:15 PM
11.6
Lake to Lake Cloud Bands Originating over Lake Huron: Spatial Patterns and Variability
David A. R. Kristovich, ISWS, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois, Champaign, IL; and A. Ferguson, L. Stoecker, and L. Bard

Recording files available
Joint Session 12
Impact of Extreme Weather and Climate on Urban Environment
Location: Room C212 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; and the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Cochairs: A.A.M. Holtslag, Wageningen University, Meteorology and Air Quality Section; James A. Voogt, Western University
  4:00 PM
J12.1
Summer in the City—Forecasting and Mapping Human Thermal Comfort in Urban Areas
A. A. M. Holtslag, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; and R. J. Ronda, G. J. Steeneveld, B. G. Heusinkveld, and M. V. D. Harst

  4:15 PM
J12.2
High-Resolution, Coupled Hydro-Meteorological Modelling for Operational Forecasting of Severe Flooding Events in Rio de Janeiro
Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and J. P. Cipriani, A. P. Praino, R. Cerqueira, M. N. D. Santos, V. C. V. B. Segura, I. C. Oliveira, L. C. V. Real, K. Mantripragada, and P. Jourdan
  4:30 PM
J12.3
Experiences with a 100m versions of the Unified Model over an urban area
Humphrey W. Lean, Met Office, Reading, Berks., United Kingdom
  4:45 PM
J12.4
  5:15 PM
J12.6
On the Genesis and Evolution of the Summer 2013 Heat Wave Event In New York City: Observations and Modeling
Estatio Gutierrez, City College, New York, NY; and J. E. González, D. Melecio, M. Arend, B. Bornstein, and A. Martilli

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Lecture 3
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: Room C113 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Seventh Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
  5:00 PM
L3.1

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


94th AMS Awards Banquet

Thursday, 6 February 2014

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 6
Testbed Activities in Numerical Weather Prediction, Observations, Analysis, and Forecasting I
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )
Cochairs: John Pereira, NOAA/NESDIS; Trisha D. Palmer, NOAA/NWSFO

Presentations on a wide range of testbed and proving ground activities supporting the research to operations process. Topics include NOAA Testbed activities, government-academic partnerships, satellite proving grounds, and other applications.
  8:30 AM
J6.1
  8:45 AM
J6.2
  9:00 AM
J6.3
The Joint Hurricane Testbed
Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
  9:15 AM
J6.4
Transition of research to operations for the Hurricane WRF model
Ligia R. Bernardet, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and V. Tallapragada, T. Brown, S. Trahan, S. Bao, M. K. Biswas, D. Stark, and L. Carson
  9:30 AM
J6.5
An Ensemble Processing Application Under Development and Testing at the NOAA Aviation Weather Testbed
David Bright, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/AWC, Kansas City, MO; and J. S. Smith, B. R. J. Schwedler, G. Liu, and S. A. Lack
Recording files available
Session 12
Developments in Numerical Weather Prediction I: Land Surface and Boundary Layer Parameterizations
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Adam J. Clark, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NSSL/NOAA; Neil P. Barton, SAIC/ DeVine Consulting, Inc.
  8:45 AM
12.2
Recent Developments in RUC Land Surface Model (RUC LSM) Implemented in Operational Rapid Refresh (RAP) at NCEP
Tatiana G. Smirnova, CIRES University of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Brown and S. Benjamin
  9:30 AM
12.5
Implementation and Evaluation of a New Shallow Convection Scheme in WRF
Aijun Deng, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and B. Gaudet, J. Dudhia, and K. Alapaty

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Joint Poster Session 3
Posters: Testbed Activities in Numerical Weather Prediction, Observations, Analysis, and Forecasting
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )
Cochairs: Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC; Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
 
608
NWP Testing and Evaluation for Specific Needs: The DTC Connection with NOAA Testbeds
Edward Tollerud, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Boulder, CO; and T. Fowler, T. L. Jensen, W. L. Clark, E. Gilleland, L. R. Bernardet, and B. G. Brown
Manuscript (2.6 MB)

 
609
Expansion and Enhancement of the Mesoscale Model Evaluation Testbed (MMET)
Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Harrold and C. Phillips

Handout (2.8 MB)

 
611
Quantifying the effect of irrigation on non-local aspects of the atmosphere
Jennifer C. Nauert, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

 
612
Numerical Simulation of Sea Fog over the Yellow Sea: Comparison between PAFOG+UM and PAFOG+WRF Coupled Systems
WonHeung Kim, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and S. S. Yum and C. K. Kim


Poster Session 4
NWP Numerics, Boundary Layer Modeling, and Other Topics
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC

Poster Session 4: Posters including the topics: NWP Numerics, Land Surface/PBL modeling, Other NWP Contributions
 
613
A fully-compressible nonhydrostatic cell-integrated semi-Lagrangian solver (CSLAM-NH) with consistent and conservative transport
May Wong, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; and W. C. Skamarock, P. H. Lauritzen, J. B. Klemp, and R. B. Stull

 
614
A 3D RANS approach based on a modification of the effective Prandtl number for high resolution mesoscale simulations
Alberto Martilli, Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas, Madrid, Spain; and R. Rotunno, J. Ching, and M. A. LeMone
Manuscript (297.1 kB)

 
617
Improving Forecast Scores by Filtering Short Waves
Jia-Fong Fan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and H. M. H. Juang

 
619
A Global WRF-based forecast system: Implementation and applications
Todd A. Hutchinson, WSI Corporation, Andover, MA; and R. Turkington and C. Meyer

 
621
Operational bias correction of RWIS pavement temperature forecasts
Rob Davis, Pelmorex - The Weather Network, Oakville, ON, Canada; and B. Jones and I. Russell

Handout (995.5 kB)

 
622
High-Resolution Modeling of Heterogeneous Boundary Layers Using LES and Eddy Seeding
Brian J. Gaudet, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and D. R. Stauffer and A. Deng

 
623
Application of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo Algorithm to Orographic Precipitation Analysis
Samantha A. Tushaus, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt, M. M. Miglietta, R. Rotunno, and L. delle Monache

 
624
Aerosol mass distribution found in the marine boundary layer over the tropical Atlantic Ocean
Elsa Castillo, The University of Texas at el Paso, El Paso, TX; and V. Morris and R. M. Fitzgerald

Handout (2.6 MB)

 
626
To Incorporate Wildfire Burning Information in NWP
Yihua Wu, EMC, College Park, MD; and M. B. Ek

 
Poster 627 has been moved. New paper number 15.6


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 7
Testbed Activities in Numerical Weather Prediction, Observations, Analysis, and Forecasting II
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )
Cochairs: John Pereira, NOAA/NESDIS; Adam Baker, NWS/WFO Peachtree City

Presentations on a wide range of testbed and proving ground activities supporting the research to operations process. Topics include NOAA Testbed activities, government-academic partnerships, satellite proving grounds, and other applications.
  11:00 AM
J7.1
Using a Collaborative Testbed-Proving Ground Paradigm for Bridging Research to Operations
Kim J. Runk, NOAA/NWS Operations Proving Ground, Kansas City, MO; and C. M. Gravelle
  11:15 AM
J7.2
Recent Advancements of the Research-to-Operations (R2O) Process at HMT-WPC
Thomas E. Workoff, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and F. E. Barthold, M. J. Bodner, B. Ferrier, E. Sukovich, B. J. Moore, L. R. Bernardet, T. M. Hamill, G. Bates, and W. Hogsett
  11:30 AM
J7.3
The 2013 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment
Faye E. Barthold, NOAA/NWS/WPC and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and T. E. Workoff, W. Hogsett, J. J. Gourley, K. M. Mahoney, L. R. Bernardet, and D. R. Novak
  11:45 AM
J7.4
Recording files available
Session 13
Developments in Numerical Weather Prediction II: High Spatial Resolution
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Ming Xue, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma; James Doyle, Naval Research Laboratory

Presentations focusing numerical weather prediction at fine grid spacings, the associated challenges, and new techniques.
  11:00 AM
13.1
Compatibility of High Resolution Terrain with High Resolution Model Grid
William Y. Y. Cheng, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and Y. Liu, G. Roux, L. Pan, Y. Liu, J. Y. Byon, and Y. J. Choi
  11:15 AM
13.2
Recent Advances in High-Resolution Operational NWP, Utilizing WRF-ARW
James P. Cipriani, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish and A. P. Praino
  11:30 AM
13.3
Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling at Kilometer Scale Grid Meshes
Jason Ching, Univ. of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC; and R. Rotunno, M. LeMone, B. Kosovic, A. Martilli, P. Jimenez, J. Dudhia, F. K. Chow, and B. Bornstein
  11:45 AM
13.4A
Development of an Hourly-Updated NAM Forecast System
Jacob Carley, IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and E. Rogers, S. Liu, B. Ferrier, E. Aligo, M. Pyle, and G. J. DiMego

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 11
Testbed Activities in Numerical Weather Prediction, Observations, Analysis, and Forecasting III
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )
Cochairs: Adam Baker, NWS/WFO Peachtree City; John Pereira, NOAA/NESDIS

Presentations on a wide range of testbed and proving ground activities supporting the research to operations process. Topics include NOAA Testbed activities, government-academic partnerships, satellite proving grounds, and other applications.
  1:30 PM
J11.1
An Overview of the 2013 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and M. Coniglio, A. J. Clark, J. Correia Jr., K. H. Knopfmeier, C. J. Melick, S. J. Weiss, J. S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. W. Thomas, K. Brewster, Y. Wang, S. Willington, and D. Suri
  1:45 PM
J11.2
A four year climatology of simulated convective storms from NSSL WRF
James Correia Jr., CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma/SPC, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain and A. J. Clark
  2:00 PM
J11.3
Verification of Proxy Severe Weather Reports from Updraft Helicity
Mallory Paige Row, Valparaiso University, Valparaiso, IN; and J. Correia Jr.
  2:15 PM
J11.4
In search of CI: Developing a strategy for detection and verification of thunderstorm initiation in convection-allowing models
Stuart D. Miller Jr., CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. S. Kain, P. Marsh, A. J. Clark, M. Coniglio, and J. Correia Jr.
  2:45 PM
J11.6
Recording files available
Session 14
Developments in Numerical Weather Prediction III: Precipitation and Microphysics Parameterizations
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY; Alison Nugent, Yale Univ.
  1:30 PM
14.1
  1:45 PM
14.2
  2:00 PM
14.3
Evaluation of Model Microphysics Within Precipitation Bands of Extratropical Cyclones
Brian A. Colle, Stony Brook University/SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and A. L. Molthan, R. Yu, D. A. Stark, S. E. Yuter, and S. W. Nesbitt
  2:15 PM
14.4
High-Resolution NMMB Simulations of the 29 June 2012 Derecho
Eric Aligo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD; and B. Ferrier, J. Carley, M. Pyle, D. Jovic, and G. DiMego
  2:45 PM
14.6
The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection
Eugene W. McCaul Jr., USRA, Huntsville, AL ; and J. L. Case, B. T. Zavodsky, J. Srikishen, J. M. Medlin, and L. Wood

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 13
Testbed Activities in Numerical Weather Prediction, Observations, Analysis, and Forecasting IV
Location: Room C201 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations )
Cochairs: John Pereira, NOAA/NESDIS; Bradley T. Zavodsky, NASA/MSFC

Presentations on a wide range of testbed and proving ground activities supporting the research to operations process. Topics include NOAA Testbed activities, government-academic partnerships, satellite proving grounds, and other applications.
  3:30 PM
J13.1
  3:45 PM
J13.2
NASA-SPoRT Methodology for JPSS and GOES-R Proving Ground Assessments
Anita LeRoy, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. K. Fuell and L. Rosa
  4:00 PM
J13.3
SPoRT transition of JPSS VIIRS Imagery for Night-time Applications
Geoffrey T. Stano, ENSCO, Inc./NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center, Huntsville, AL; and K. K. Fuell, A. LeRoy, M. Smith, S. D. Miller, D. Kann, D. Bernhardt, N. Rydell, and R. Cox
  4:30 PM
J13.5
Sensitivity of Hurricane WRF model track and intensity forecasts to microphysics and radiation parameterizations
Mrinal K. Biswas, Developmental Testbed Center/NCAR, Boulder, CO; and A. Chakraborty, G. Thompson, Y. Kwon, S. Trahan, L. R. Bernardet, and V. Tallapragada

  4:45 PM
J13.6
Evaluating the performance of a sodar gap-filling algorithm in short term wind forecasting
Velayudhan Praju Kiliyanpilakkil, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, Raleigh, NC; and S. Basu

Recording files available
Session 15
Other Contributions to NWP Developments
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Steven E. Nelson, NOAA/NWSFO; Keith Stellman, NOAA/NWS
  3:30 PM
15.1
An update on the FIM and a look at forecasts for some recent high-impact weather events
Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and B. Jamison, S. G. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, and M. Fiorino
  3:45 PM
15.2
The Model Evaluation Tools: How to use its statistical output to understand model performance
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Fowler, J. H. Gotway, B. G. Brown, and R. Bullock
  4:00 PM
15.3
COAMPS Extended-range Simulations in the Tropics
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and X. Hong and J. D. Doyle
  4:15 PM
15.4
  4:30 PM
15.5
Building a U.S. Earth System Prediction Capability with NUOPC-based Models
David McCarren, Navy/CNMOC, Silver Springs, MD; and G. Theurich and C. Deluca

  4:45 PM
15.6
High-resolution microscale weather and climate (re-)analysis and short-term forecasting at Shenzhen, China
Yubao Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Li, Y. Jiang, L. Pan, Y. Liu, W. Y. Y. Cheng, G. Roux, and Y. Zhang

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


AMS 94th Annual Meeting Adjourns