NCEP regional ensemble update: current systems and planned storm-scale ensembles

The NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) system was operationally implemented in 2001 and has become an integrated part of the daily weather forecasting process in the U.S. National Weather Service. The current 16km SREF system was upgraded in August 2012, and a new time-lagged approach based North America Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE-TL) tailored for aviation weather was also implemented in 2012. Both the 16km SREF and NARRE-TL will be overviewed in this talk. As the expected further increase of NCEP computer power, the dream of running real-time operational storm-scale (1-3km) ensembles could become a reality at NCEP in near future. The plan of such dream systems will also be outlined.