Performance and Verification Results of a Cycled WRF/DART Multiscale Ensemble System at Texas Tech University
The performance of the ensemble system will be presented. Spread/skill metrics and rank histograms are evaluated here to reveal whether desirable ensemble behavior, particularly with regard to spread and bias, is maintained throughout the extended forecasts. Ensemble mean forecasts are verified against hourly surface temperature, moisture, wind, and precipitation observations, as well as temperature, pressure, moisture, and wind observations aloft every 6 hours. In addition to comparisons to observations, ensemble performance is compared to several other numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and configurations. In particular, this comparison will include a TTU 12-km/3-km real time WRF deterministic simulation initialized from the GFS, as well as the U.S. operational NAM, GFS, and RAP models.