Ensemble Predictions of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Totals in Varying Synoptic Environments
First, the amount and distribution of inland rainfall will be quantified and placed in historical context using multi-sensor precipitation analyses. Then, the probabilistic precipitation forecasts from multiple ensemble prediction systems will be evaluated. These ensemble systems will include the global ensembles in the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) as well as a WRF-based convection-allowing ensemble. The results will be analyzed based upon the prevailing synoptic environment in each tropical cyclone case to identify possible differences in forecast skill, along with the representation of uncertainty by the different ensemble systems. Any statistical difference in skill will be compiled with a goal of determining NWP model tropical cyclone forecasted precipitation tendencies in specific synoptic patterns.