Case Study on the Difference of the Analyzed Typhoon Positions of Typhoon Centers over western North Pacific Region

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Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Ki-ho Chang, National Typhoon Center / KMA, Jeju, South Korea; and W. Lee, K. Y. Byun, W. S. Yoon Sr., and J. H. Lee

Typhoons give the many countries such as Japan, the Philippines, including Korean Peninsula cause serious damages economically and socially every year. To more accurately investigate the present status of typhoons, typhoon centers use many observation data such as satellite, radar, Automatic Weather System (AWS), Buoy, etc. However, the number of data is very limited for the analysis since typhoons spend most of their life in the ocean among them. The real-time analyzed typhoon positions by National Typhoon Center/KMA, Regional Specialized Meteorological Center/JMA, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, have been compared for the eleven affecting typhoon cases to Korea Peninsula during the recent 3 years (2010-2012). The results show that the difference between the typhoon center's analyzed tracks is 16 34 km (standard deviation 19 29 km) on average for the cases, and its maximum reaches up to 272 km. It is concluded that the difference is mainly due to 1) initial developing stage, 2) weakening stage, 3) abnormal track, and 4) mistake of analyst for the cases.