Comparison Of Extratropical Cyclones Process Among Yyphoon Forecasting Model Using Cyclone Phase Space

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Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Na InChae, National Typhoon Center / KMA, Jeju, South Korea; and W. J. Lee, J. Kim Sr., K. H. Chang, N. Y. Kang, and J. H. Lee

Forecaster declare the end of the typhoon when typhoon maintain the properties of typhoon no longer. In other words, what is judge to extratropical transition in typhoon work is important. What is the process of extratropical cyclones, typhoon is the process of the collapse of the characteristic structure of the typhoon, including the break of warm core of and break of the symmetry of the isobars. National Typhoon Center have judge extratropical transition from satellite images that appear near the center of the typhoon in weakened convection cloud, asymmetric cloud, center of dark zone the intrusion to disappear warm core, stretches south from the center of the typhoon convective cloud formation. Besides, cyclone phase space (CPS) calculated from the forecasting model of time-dependent structural changes in the typhoon for forecasts of the extratropical cyclones (Hart, 2003). Therefore, the purpose of this study compared to the Korea Meteorological Agency for the production of UM model and the process of extratropical cyclones between the foreign main model for CPS. As a result, the GFS prediction showed a stable trend better than UM, CMC, UKM (Table 1). UM showed UKM model similar error through the influence of based on UKM model. Also, UM model did not forecast the extra-tropical cyclone of several typhoons. Hence, think it would be helpful tendency of the typhoon case In the future and external institutions evaluate the performance of the model. References Hart, R. E., 2003: A cyclone phase space derived from thermal wind and thermal asymmetry. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 585-616.