Session: Posters: Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques (94th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting)

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Posters: Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting

- Indicates an Award Winner

Tuesday, 4 February 2014: 9:45 AM-11:00 AM

Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )

Cochairs: Kelly M. Mahoney, NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO and Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL, Boulder, CO

Papers:

The Analysis of Abrupt Northward Turning of Typhoon Megi(1013) Using TIGGE Data

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Assessing the Impact of Initial Condition Errors on Intensity Forecasts of Hurricane Katia (2011)

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn, C. Davis, and T. Auligné

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Ensemble-Based Analysis of Factors Contributing to the 14 June 2010 Oklahoma City Flood

Nathan Dahl, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Manuscript (2.6 MB)

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CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System: Impact of IC and LBC perturbations

Fanyou Kong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., J. S. Kain, and S. J. Weiss

Manuscript (727.4 kB)

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Improvements in the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System

Ronald Frenette, EC, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. Charron, A. Erfani, and N. Gagnon

Handout (406.1 kB)

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The Development of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

Yuejian Zhu, EMC, College Park, MD; and D. Hou, X. Zhou, R. Wobus, M. Pena, and J. Peng

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Operational Multi-model Medium Range Forecasting: A NUOPC Update

David McCarren, Navy/CNMOC, Silver Springs, MD; and S. Sandgathe, F. Toepfer, and Y. Zhu

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Anomaly Forecast—Useful Tool for Extreme Weather Detection

Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and B. Yang

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Time-Lagged 3-km Ensemble High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecasts for Key Convective Storm, Fire Weather and Wind Energy Events in 2013

Curtis Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. S. Weygandt, D. C. Dowell, and E. P. James

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An Evaluation of the Impact of Increased Horizontal Grid Spacing on SREF Performance

Isidora Jankov, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, J. Du, G. DiMego, Y. Zhu, B. G. Brown, E. Mirvis, and Z. toth

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The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF)

Ligia R. Bernardet, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov, S. Albers, K. Mahoney, T. Workoff, F. Barthold, W. Hogsett, D. Reynolds, and J. Du

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Ensemble Data Assimilation in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) during CONCORDIASI (2010)

Matthew S. Elliott, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo and D. B. Parsons

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A neighborhood-based probability of precipitation forecasting technique: Further testing

Michael C. Kochasic, NOAA/NWS, Goodland, KS; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

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Probabilistic Global Convective Hazard Forecasts and Verification

R. Stretton, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. Buchanan, W. Hand, D. Suri, and S. Willington

Manuscript (531.2 kB)

Handout (753.9 kB)

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