Posters: Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
Tuesday, 4 February 2014: 9:45 AM-11:00 AM
Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs:  Kelly M. Mahoney, NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO and Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL, Boulder, CO
Ensemble-Based Analysis of Factors Contributing to the 14 June 2010 Oklahoma City Flood
Nathan Dahl, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
Manuscript (2.6 MB)

CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System: Impact of IC and LBC perturbations
Fanyou Kong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., J. S. Kain, and S. J. Weiss
Manuscript (727.4 kB)

Improvements in the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System
Ronald Frenette, EC, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. Charron, A. Erfani, and N. Gagnon

Handout (406.1 kB)

The Development of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Yuejian Zhu, EMC, College Park, MD; and D. Hou, X. Zhou, R. Wobus, M. Pena, and J. Peng

Operational Multi-model Medium Range Forecasting: A NUOPC Update
David McCarren, Navy/CNMOC, Silver Springs, MD; and S. Sandgathe, F. Toepfer, and Y. Zhu

Anomaly Forecast—Useful Tool for Extreme Weather Detection
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and B. Yang

Time-Lagged 3-km Ensemble High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecasts for Key Convective Storm, Fire Weather and Wind Energy Events in 2013
Curtis Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. S. Weygandt, D. C. Dowell, and E. P. James

An Evaluation of the Impact of Increased Horizontal Grid Spacing on SREF Performance
Isidora Jankov, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, J. Du, G. DiMego, Y. Zhu, B. G. Brown, E. Mirvis, and Z. toth

The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF)
Ligia R. Bernardet, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov, S. Albers, K. Mahoney, T. Workoff, F. Barthold, W. Hogsett, D. Reynolds, and J. Du

Ensemble Data Assimilation in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) during CONCORDIASI (2010)
Matthew S. Elliott, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo and D. B. Parsons

A neighborhood-based probability of precipitation forecasting technique: Further testing
Michael C. Kochasic, NOAA/NWS, Goodland, KS; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Probabilistic Global Convective Hazard Forecasts and Verification
R. Stretton, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. Buchanan, W. Hand, D. Suri, and S. Willington
Manuscript (531.2 kB)

Handout (753.9 kB)

The Impact of Forecast Error Growth on the Medium-Range Predictability of a European Cyclone
William S. Lamberson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn and L. F. Bosart

Preliminary results of ETKF based ensemble precipitation prediction over the Korean Peninsula
Jun Kyung Kay, Yonsei University, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, South Korea; and H. M. Kim

Ensemble Cloud Forecasting to Enable Free-Space Optical Communications
Billy D. Felton, Northrop Grumann Corporation, McLean, VA; and R. J. Alliss