Operational Multi-model Medium Range Forecasting: A NUOPC Update

The National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) multi-model ensemble comprised of the NOAA GEFS and the Navy EFS became operational in January 2011. Since then, the Navy EFS has been added to the NOAA GEFS-Canadian EFS North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) to create a three model, 62 member ensemble. Raw and bias corrected data are available in real time from the NCEP NOMADS server, both for operational users from NOAA, DOD, and CMC, but also for university, commercial and individuals to create products.

The three underlying models have undergone continuous improvement in both model parameterizations and model resolution since inception and the NAEFS/NUOPC system is scheduled to increase to 1/2 degree horizontal resolution in 2014. We will provide an update on ensemble model upgrades, data availability and current performance.