Anomaly Forecast—Useful Tool for Extreme Weather Detection
In this study, a new daily climatology, which is from latest CFS reanalysis (30 years), has been generated to compare with the NCEP/NCAR 40 years reanalysis. Apparently, CFSR has much improved quality through the observations, assimilation methodology and forecast model. The new climatology based anomaly forecast for NAEFS will be implemented to replace current climatology. Anomaly forecast for SREF is planning to be implemented in the future, ether. Meanwhile, the model climatology, based on GEFS reforecast (25 years), has been created to produce another set of anomaly forecast from raw ensemble forecast (no bias correction). The subjective evaluations of all these applications will be carried out to identify the values.