2
Severe Convective Storms; Decision Support; Ensemble NWP; Forecast Verification

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
Tuesday, 4 February 2014: 9:45 AM-11:00 AM
Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:  Andrew L. Molthan, Earth Science Office/Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL and Kelly M. Mahoney, NOAA ESRL Physical Sciences Division, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO
Papers:
 
Poster 135 will now be presented as paper 5.2A

 
137
Relating Total Lightning and Storm Microphysics to In-Cloud Convective Turbulence
Sarah A. Al-Momar, Plymouth State University, Toledo, OH; and W. Deierling, J. K. Williams, D. R. Adriaansen, and M. K. Politovich

Handout (1022.4 kB)

 
138
Assimilating Kentucky Mesonet observations in a real-time forecasting system at the Kentucky Climate Center
Eric Rappin, Western Kentucky University, Bowling Green, KY; and R. Mahmood and S. A. Foster

 
139
Verification of the FSU/FPL Lightning Model and Analysis of the Meteorological Conditions Leading to the Highest Frequency of Lightning during the 2012 Convective Season
Michelle Wilson, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. G. Estupiñán
Manuscript (8.0 MB)

Handout (604.6 kB)

 
140
Model estimates of lightning in convective systems in southern Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepc
Jorge Clouthier-Lopez, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and G. B. Raga
Manuscript (489.0 kB)

Handout (382.5 kB)

 
141
Analysis of Lightning Trends Prior to the Occurrence of Severe Weather Events
Eric Wendoloski, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and C. Sloop and C. Liu

 
142
Using Total Lightning Cell Tracking to Improve Convective Nowcasts
Mark Hoekzema, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD

 
143
The Relationship of Precursory Precipitation and Synoptic-Scale Mid-Tropospheric Flow Patterns to Spring Tornado Activity in Oklahoma
Levi P. Cowan, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK; and M. D. Austin, J. Kurtz, M. B. Scotten, and M. Day

 
144
Differentiating Between Warned and Unwarned Tornadoes in California
Kayla M. Jordan, WeatherExtreme Ltd., Fallbrook, CA; and S. P. Bone

 
145
Objective characterization of intense vortices in very high-resolution supercell simulations

 
146
Climatology of Tornadoes in the British Isles (1980–2012)
Kelsey Mulder, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; and D. M. Schultz

Handout (11.2 MB)

 
147
Reducing NWS Tornado FAR – An Examination of Near-Storm Environmental Parameters in Tornado-Warned Thunderstorms across the Midwest and Ohio Valley
Kevin Deitsch, NOAA/NWS, Louisville, KY

 
148
Forecast implications of regional variations in storm modes and environments that produce significant tornadoes in the United States
Larry J. Hopper Jr., Univ. of Louisiana, Monroe, LA; and J. I. Pullin

 
149
The Role of the Elsinore Convergence Zone on Severe Weather Vulnerability in Southern California's Inland Empire
Stephen P. Bone, WeatherExtreme Ltd., Fallbrook, CA; and J. K. Purpura, K. M. Jordan, and E. J. Austin

 
Statistical study of CAPE and daytime thunderstorms in Singapore
Manuscript (303.0 kB)

 
150
Synoptic-scale precursors, characteristics, and typing of nocturnal Mesoscale Convective Complexes in the Great Plains
Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and C. M. Kelly

 
151
High Resolution WRF Simulation and Climatological Analysis of Severe Weather Events during the North American Monsoon
Megan Jares, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. L. Castro, H. I. Chang, C. Carrillo, J. J. Mazon, J. Stutler, and J. J. Brost

 
152
Examining the land-lake-atmosphere interactions of the May 5, 2003 severe weather event over southwest Michigan
David M. Wright, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and D. J. Posselt and G. Mann

 
153
Hurricane Force Winds in Extratropical Cyclones: The Role of Frontogenesis and Frontolysis
Benjamin Albright, Howard Univ., Washington, DC; and J. M. Sienkiewicz

 
154
Far Upstream Precursors to Severe and Extreme Weather over the Midwestern United States
Jason M. Cordeira, Plymouth State University, Plymouth, NH; and N. D. Metz

 
155
Improving the Ensemble Predictability of High-impact Events using Forecast Sensitivity
Brian C. Ancell, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX

 
156
Verifying WRF ensemble forecasts of updraft helicity
Logan C. Dawson, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and G. Romine, R. J. Trapp, and S. Tessendorf

 
157
Multiscale Characteristics of Convection-Allowing Ensemble Perturbation Evolution in Warm Season Precipitation Forecasts
Aaron T. Johnson, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, M. Xue, F. Kong, G. Zhao, Y. Wang, K. W. Thomas, K. Brewster, and J. Gao

 
158
Neighborhood-based verification of high resolution ensemble forecast system in KMA
SeHyun Kim, Yonsei Univ, Seoul, South Korea; and H. M. Kim

 
159
ECMWF and GFS Model Forecast Verification During DYNAMO: Multi-scale Variability in MJO Initiation over the Equatorial Indian Ocean
Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

 
160
3D-mask for the ETR Initialization in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Juhui Ma, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and Y. Zhu

 
161
An Automatic Wind Warning System for Construction Projects
Martin Gauthier, RWDI, Calgary, AB, Canada; and R. J. Chapman, J. R. Lundgren, D. M. Cherneski, M. P. Gibbons, and C. De Jong

 
162
Expansion of the Real-Time SPoRT-Land Information System for NOAA/National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications
Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc., Huntsville, AL
Manuscript (4.9 MB)

Handout (4.1 MB)

 
163
Development and Testing of a Layer Precipitable Water Product to Aid Forecasting of Heavy Precipitation and Flooding
Stanley Q. Kidder, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and J. M. Forsythe and K. K. Fuell

 
164
Using Atmospheric Freezing Level to Predict Severe Hail in WFO Miami's County Warning Area
Jose Diaz, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, Mayaquez, PR; and S. Konarik and J. Estupinan
Manuscript (300.0 kB)

Handout (751.6 kB)

 
165
Some Considerations for Developing an Ingredients-Based 1-3 KM Turbulence Algorithm
James R. McCormick, UCAR, Offutt AFB, NE

 
166
The Model Evaluation Tools (MET) Update
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, R. Bullock, T. Jensen, B. Brown, K. Newman, N. Rehak, and J. Prestopnik

 
167
USAF Use of an Editable Weather System for Decision Support Services
Jeffrey A. Fries, United States Air Force Weather Agency, Offutt Air Force Base, NE

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