Meso-scale analysis and warning dicussion on“2011.6.9” heavy rainfall event in Hunan province

Using Doppler radar data, satellite cloud pictures, routine observational data, FNL data, the meso-scale characteristics of a heavy rainfall process of Hunan Province on 9-10 June 2011 are analyzed, and explores the focus on potential forecast and the possibility of heavy rainfall warning. The result shows that: the unstable energy has increased, K index and Showalter index have certain directive significance before the heavy rainfall occurred. The heavy rain occurs mainly in the east of the convective clouds with TBB temperature lower than -70°C. The heaviest rain occurs in the area where the TBB temperature is below -80°C. The low mass and high efficiency precipitation echo passing from Yueyang continuously bringing about the "Train Effect" results in the heavy rainfall, Radical velocity characteristics of the leeside region and the convergence and the divergence have certain forecast prediction. The long maintenance of low mass strong reflectivity value,the leeside region,the lower velocity convergence all provide valuable reference to the heavy rainfall nowcasting warning.