Analysis of Earth Networks Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts (DTAs) Performance over CONUS for 2012

Studies have shown that in-cloud (IC) lighting tends to prevail in early stages of convective development, while cloud-to-ground (CG) lighting activity tends to be in the later stages of the storms. Total lightning data with both IC and CG have a good correlation to the development and severity of the storms. The detection of total lightning data, especially IC lightning data, enables improvements in the lead time of severe weather prediction and alerting. Earth Networks Total Lightning Network (ENTLN) provides the capability of detecting total lightning data efficiently on a continental scale. Using total lightning data from the ENTLN, a real-time lightning cell tracking program has been developed to identify and track the properties of storm cells, such as the lightning flash rate, directional movement and speed of the lightning cells. The Earth Networks Dangerous Thunderstorm Alert (DTA) has been developed based on this lightning cell tracker and is currently being used in a nowcast system.

In this presentation, the methodologies employed in creating the Dangerous Thunderstorm Alerts and the statistical analysis on the performance of the DTAs will be discussed. The objective of this study is to provide validation of the effectiveness of the DTA, by comparing DTAs with NWS severe storm warnings and storm reports over CONUS for the entire year of 2012.