Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification: Multivariate Attributes and Rapid Intensity Change
Evaluating TC forecast position and intensity errors independently has been a common verification practice. However, TC environments can significantly impact intensity (ex. warm versus cold sea surface temperature, TC interaction with land, etc.). This paper will present results of an exploratory multivariate analysis wherein conditional distributions and characteristics of TC forecast position and intensity errors will be considered. The TC forecast data sets were provided by HFIP model development groups as part of annual retrospective testing and demonstration exercises. Additionally, this paper will examine the frequency of TC rapid intensity change events in the National Hurricane Center Best Track Analyses and suggest frequency-appropriate statistics for these events.