The Wind Forecast Improvement Project: Final Results From The Southern Study Region

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Thursday, 6 February 2014: 11:15 AM
Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Jeff Freedman, AWS TruePower LLC, Albany, NY; and J. W. Zack, J. Manobianco, P. Beaucage, K. Rojowsky, J. L. Schroeder, B. C. Ancell, K. Brewster, K. Thomas, S. Basu, V. Banunarayanan, K. Orwig, J. M. Wilczak, J. W. Cline, and I. Flores

Wind energy forecasters and utility operators are presented with a variety of meteorological phenomena that can affect power production and grid operations on varying temporal and spatial scales. These features can be difficult to forecast, especially in the short-term (0 – 6 hr), resulting in significant errors because of inaccuracies in timing, magnitude, and placement of wind speed and wind direction discontinuities. These phenomena can also produce undesirable effects on the power grid, especially those associated with “ramp events.” The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) is a multi-year Department of Energy (DOE)/National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sponsored study whose main purpose is to demonstrate the value of additional atmospheric observations and model enhancements on wind energy production forecasts. The project takes a comprehensive approach to meet the DOE's goal of improving 0- to 6-hour wind forecasts by demonstrating the “value of additional atmospheric observations and model enhancements on wind forecasts at turbine height.”

The key questions WFIP seeks to answer include:

1. What model configurations are best suited for producing accurate forecasts of wind power production?

2. What instruments placed in what locations will be most valuable in facilitating better forecasts?

3. What is the economic value of the improved forecast?

WFIP work concluded in July 2013, after a one-year real-time forecasting modeling exercise supported by deployment of a network of remote sensing and surface observation stations. This was followed by a series of data denial experiments coordinated amongst project partners and NOAA. Here, final results from WFIP are presented, with focus on an overview of project results illuminating answers to the key questions posed above.