Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Program Chairs: Heidi Centola , CME Group ; Andrew Clifton , National Renewable Energy Laboratory ; Julie K. Lundquist , Univ. of Colorado ; Kathleen E. Moore , Integrated Environmental Data, LLC ; Brian D'Agostino , Sempra Energy
Reviewer: Stephen Bennett , EarthRisk Technologies

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 1 February 2014

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 1 February 2014


Registration for Student Conference and Short Courses

Sunday, 2 February 2014

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


Registration for Short Courses and Conference for Early Career Professionals

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


Registration Open for Annual Meeting

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


WeatherFest

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


94th Annual Review, New Fellows, and Featured Awards
Location: Room C302 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

Monday, 3 February 2014

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Registration Continues through February 5

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
14th Presidential Forum: Extreme Weather, Climate, and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools
Location: Thomas Murphy Ballroom (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Superstorm Sandy and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
Moderator: Margaret Davidson, NOAA/Office for Coastal Management
Panelists: Leslie Chapman-Henderson, Federal Alliance for Safe Homes; David Perkes, Mississippi State Univ.; Ellis Stanley, Hammerman & Gainer International, Inc.; Rear Admiral David W. Titley, Penn State University; Peter Kareiva, The Nature Conservancy
Speaker: Andy Revkin, Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times, and Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding, Pace University
  9:00 AM
Welcoming Remarks

  9:05 AM
PL1.1
The New Communication Climate - An exploration of tools and traits that give the best chance of success in facing a fast-forward media landscape and changing climate
Andy Revkin, Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times, and Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding, Pace University, New York, NY
  9:25 AM
Panel Discussion

  10:25 AM
Concluding Remarks

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Spouses' Coffee

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 1
Energy Applications for Weather/Climate Data Part I
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Shane Motley, Xcel Energy ; Joseph M. Woznicki, Purdue University
  11:15 AM
1.2
Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing
Daniel G. Burtch, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND; and G. L. Mullendore, D. J. Delene, and B. Storm
  11:45 AM
1.4
Advancements in Wind Integration Study Input Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit
Kirsten Orwig, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and J. McCaa, S. Harrold, C. Draxl, W. Jones, K. R. Searight, D. Getman, and B. M. Hodge

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 2
Energy Applications Weather/Climate Data Part II
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Amanda S. Adams, University of North Carolina
  1:30 PM
2.1
Towards a multi-time-scale integrated solar forecast system
Philippe Beaucage, AWS Truepower, Albany, NY; and J. W. Zack, J. Kleissl, A. Kankiewicz, J. Freedman, S. I. Gohari, and B. Urquhart
  1:45 PM
2.2
Implementation and Validation of a Surface Parameterization Ensemble for Solar Power Prediction
Patrick Mathiesen, Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. C. Collier and E. Novakovskaia

  2:00 PM
2.3
Solar Data Monitoring to Reduce Energy Production Uncertainty
Kathleen E. Moore, Integrated Environmental Data, LLC, Berne, NY; and A. Gaglioti

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Poster Session 1
Poster Session
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
 
393
The Relationships Between Meteorological Weather Features and Wind Turbine Icing Events
Heath W. Corder, Univ. of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and A. S. Adams

 
395
Solar insolation Data for Improved Electrical Use and Generation Forecasting
Dave Oberholzer, Earth Networks, Germantown, MD; and C. Sloop

 
396
Intraseasonal variability of the impacts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Gulf of Guinea
Fisseha Berhane, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik

Handout (1.9 MB)

 
398
Development of an Integrated Framework for Solar Power Forecasting
Duane Apling, Northrop Grumman Corporation, McLean, VA; and K. Darmenova and G. Higgins

 
399
Diagnosing the Pacific Tropical-Extratropical Pre-superstorm Environment
Matthew G. Fearon, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV; and M. L. Kaplan


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

4:00 PM-5:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 3
High Density Weather Observing Networks Utilized in Wind/Solar Electric Generation
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: John Bosse, Earth Networks
  4:00 PM
3.1
Improving the Accuracy Satellite Based Solar Resource for use in NREL's National Solar Radiation Database
Manajit Sengupta, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and P. Gotseff, A. Habte, C. Molling, and A. K. Heidinger
  4:15 PM
3.2
Assessment of the impact of assimilation of a network of coastal wind profiling radars on simulating offshore winds in and above the wind turbine layer
Irina V. Djalalova, NOAA/ESRL/PSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and L. Bianco, J. M. Wilczak, J. B. Olson, J. Carley, M. Marquis, R. M. Banta, Y. Pichugina, and J. W. Cline
  4:30 PM
3.3
  4:45 PM
3.4
Wake Losses in Wind Plants – Comparing Several Methods with Measured Wakes
Robert Conzemius, Windlogics, Inc., Grand Rapids, MN; and D. Moon and J. Eastman

5:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 4
Climate Data and Modeling Applied to Long-Term Renewable Energy Resource Development
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Andrew Clifton, National Renewable Energy Laboratory

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Reception and Exhibits Opening

7:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Town Hall Meeting: Planning for the future: Extreme weather, changing climate, and energy sustainability in large urban areas
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Panelists: Norrie McKenzie, Georgia Power; Marilyn Brown, GA Tech; Andrew Odins, NRG Energy Inc.

In 2012 there were 11 billion dollar weather and climate disasters in the United States according to the NCDC. Several of these disasters directly impacted major cities and urban areas. The high population density and increasing growth of large metropolitan areas makes stability and sustainability of energy of critical importance in the urban environment. An important factor in the stability and sustainability of energy in the urban environment is weather. Temperature extremes magnify energy demands in heavily populated areas, while storms like post-tropical storm Sandy present risks to the distribution grid. Extreme weather in a small geographic region can have large consequences for urban environments in terms of reliability and emergency management response . Cities are a great opportunity to increase weather dependent renewable energy production for reliability and for reduction of greenhouse gases. The climate is changing and weather extremes seem to be occurring more frequently. With this in mind, this town hall aims to discuss where do we go from here? This town hall meeting will be co-sponsored by the AMS Energy Committee and the AMS Board on the Urban Environment. Some of the possible questions for discussion are: What are the meteorological and climate challenges of integrating more renewable energy generation in urban areas? What are the evolving policies related to energy in the urban environment and are the aims of these policies realistic? What research is needed by the meteorological and climate communities in order to promote energy sustainability , resiliency, and security in the urban environment? What should urban areas be doing to adapt and mitigate the effects of extreme weather hazards and climate change? Who should be leading the charge to make such changes – ie: private entities, local, state, federal governments, a collaboration? For additional information, please contact Manda Adams (manda.adams@uncc.edu), Jorge Gonzalez (gonzalez@me.ccny.edu) orKevin Stenson (Kevin.Stenson@meteogroup.com).
  7:00 PM
Introductions: Amanda Adams

Tuesday, 4 February 2014

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 5
Energy User experiences with Weather/Climate Data
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Heidi Centola, CME Group; Matthew Davey, Lyndon State College
  8:30 AM
5.1
Observations and reanalysis data used for reinsurance
Steve E. Smith, Beach Re, New York, NY; and D. C. Wright
  8:45 AM
5.2
Short Term Load Forecasting with a Meteorologist
W. Jeff House, Tennessee Valley Authority, Chattanooga, TN
  9:30 AM
5.5
Estimating the Threat to Offshore Wind Farms using a 24-year Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Climatology
Brandy Stimac, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC; and A. S. Adams and M. Eastin

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Spouses' Coffee

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

11:00 AM-11:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 6
Extreme Weather Events and Their Impacts on the Energy Industry
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Kevin Stenson, MeteoGroup
  11:00 AM
6.1
Hot Times in the City – A Look at Summer Heat in New York City from a Utility Company Perspective
Brandon Hertell, Consolidated Edison Company of New York, New York, NY; and R. D'Arienzo
  11:15 AM
6.2
It is Tails
Lawrence Heitkemper, MDA Information Systems LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and T. Hartman
  11:30 AM
6.3

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Lunch Break

Stanley a. Changnon Luncheon
Location: Room B401 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Atmospheric Circulations Part I
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes )
Chair: Travis Hartman, MDA Information Systems, LLC
  1:30 PM
J1.1
The Madden-Julian Oscillation and extratropical cyclogenesis
Charles Jones, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA
  1:45 PM
J1.2
Predictability of Different ISO Forms
Violeta Toma, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. Webster and F. Hirata
  2:15 PM
J1.4
Associations between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and pan-Arctic terrestrial snow
G. R. Henderson, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and B. S. Barrett and E. Kreyenhagen
  2:30 PM
J1.5
Skill of the MJO and Northern Hemisphere Blocking in GEFS Medium-Range Reforecasts
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill and G. Kiladis
  2:45 PM
J1.6

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 7
Medium-range, sub-seasonal and seasonal scale forecast techniques and modeling for energy demand
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Travis Hartman, MDA Information Systems, LLC
  3:30 PM
7.1
Skill of a New Two- to Six-Week Forecast System
Richard P. James, Prescient Weather Ltd, State College, PA; and J. D. Ross and J. A. Dutton

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 2
Extreme Weather Events Part I
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes )
Chair: Travis Hartman, MDA Information Systems, LLC
  4:15 PM
J2.2
  4:30 PM
J2.3
Skillful wintertime, intraseasonal North American temperature forecasts based on the state of ENSO and the MJO
Nat Johnson, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and D. C. Collins, S. B. Feldstein, M. L'Heureux, and E. Riddle
  4:45 PM
J2.4
The Madden Julian Oscillation: Identification
Michael Ventrice, Weather Service International, Andover, MA; and M. C. Wheeler, H. Hendon, C. J. Schreck III, C. Thorncroft, and G. Kiladis

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 1
Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture
Location: Room C106 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2013; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
  5:00 PM
L1.1
Towards a general theory of global monsoons (Invited Presentation)
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

Wednesday, 5 February 2014

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Applications of Artificial Intelligence Methods for Energy
Location: Room C204 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; and the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Cochairs: Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR; Brian DAgostino, Sempra Energy
  8:30 AM
J3.1
Smart Cloud Detection System for Intra-hour Solar Irradiance Forecasts (Invited Presentation)
Y. Chu, University of California, La Jolla, CA; and L. Nonnemacher, R. Inman, Z. Liao, H. T. C. Pedro, and C. F. M. Coimbra
  8:45 AM
J3.2
A multi-scale solar energy forecast platform based on machine-learned adaptive combination of expert systems
Siyuan Lu, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and J. Lenchner, G. J. Tesauro, C. M. Corcoran, F. J. Marianno, J. Zhang, B. M. Hodge, E. Campos, and H. F. Hamann
  9:00 AM
J3.3
Using AI to integrate weather into electrical and natural gas load forecasts
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Wiener, W. Myers, S. E. Haupt, T. Brummet, S. Dettling, S. Linden, and J. M. Pearson
  9:15 AM
J3.4
  9:30 AM
J3.5
  9:45 AM
J3.6
Development of Clear sky models for solar energy using Machine Learning
Guido Cervone, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and J. Lin, T. C. McCandless, and S. Haupt
Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Atmospheric Circulations Part II
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes )
Cochairs: Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy; Charles Jones, Univ. of California
  8:45 AM
J4.2
Variability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
Matthew Lafleur, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and B. S. Barrett and G. Henderson
  9:00 AM
J4.3
Three-dimensional structure and evolution of the barotropic and baroclinic components of the MJO
Ángel F. Adames, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and J. M. Wallace
  9:15 AM
J4.4
A Potential Vorticity Perspective of the South Asian Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillation
Sebastián Ortega, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. Webster and V. Toma
  9:30 AM
J4.5
Relative Roles of Circumnavigating Waves and Extratropics on the MJO
Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and T. Li

  9:45 AM
J4.6

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Spouses' Coffee

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Extreme Weather Events Part II
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes )
Cochairs: Bradford S. Barrett, U.S. Naval Academy; Charles Jones, Univ. of California
  10:45 AM
J5.2
  11:00 AM
J5.3
The Impact of the MJO on Global Ocean Surface Wave Heights
Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and B. Wu, Y. Yung, F. Webb, and S. Kedar
  11:15 AM
J5.4
Extended-Range Multi-Scale Simulations of the Madden Julian Oscillation and Tropical Cyclone 05
Xiaodong Hong, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, J. Doyle, P. May, S. Chen, M. Flatau, and L. W. O'Neill
  11:30 AM
J5.5
Moist static energy and the MJO
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia University, New York, NY; and S. Wang, D. Kim, and E. D. Maloney

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Lunch Break

Women in the Atmospheric Sciences Luncheon: A Conversation about the Future
Location: Room C112 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Lecture 2
Horton Lecture
Location: Georgia Ballroom 1 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Seventh Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
Recording files available
Joint Session 7
Global Teleconnections and the MJO
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; and the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Cochairs: Bradford S. Barrett, Univ. of Oklahoma; Charles Jones, Univ. of California
  1:45 PM
J7.2
MJO modulation of surface variables over South America in the CFS reanalysis
Michael Natoli, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery and E. J. Becker

  2:00 PM
J7.3
Recording files available
Joint Session 9
AI Solar Energy Prediction Contest
Location: Room C204 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Cochairs: David John Gagne II, University of Oklahoma; Amy McGovern, Univ. of Oklahoma
  1:30 PM
Introductory Remarks

  1:45 PM
9.1
Forecasting Daily Solar Energy Production Using Robust Regression Techniques
Gilles Louppe, University of Ličge, Ličge, Belgium; and P. Prettenhofer
  2:15 PM
9.3
A Blending Approach to Solar Energy Prediction
Lucas Eustaquio Gomes da Silva, Belo Horizonte , Brazil; and G. Titericz Jr.

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Poster Session 2
Poster Session
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
 
729
 
731
The WWRP/THORPEX-WCRP Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction Project
Andrew W. Robertson, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and F. Vitart and D. E. Waliser

 
732
 
733
Meteorological Phenomena Impacting Spatial Consistency of Ramp Events in Wind Farms
Ian James Camerlin, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus, Jr. and E. S. Takle
Manuscript (245.7 kB)

 
734
Forecasting Electric Generation from Solar Energy
Stephen D. Jascourt, MDA Information Systems, LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and D. Kirk-Davidoff, C. Cassidy, and T. Hartman

Handout (828.8 kB)

 
736
Solar and Wind Resource Assessments from Two Years of Short-Range High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Forecasts
Eric P. James, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. Alexander, B. D. Jamison, and S. G. Benjamin

 
737
Development of Cloud Propagation Forecast System
Duane Apling, Northrop Grumman Corporation, McLean, VA; and K. Darmenova and G. Higgins

 
738
Can Targeted Off-Site Observations of Boundary Layer Wind Profiles Improve Ramp Forecasting?
Eric P. Grimit, 3TIER, Inc., Seattle, WA; and C. Maalouf, J. Lerner, and P. Storck


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

4:00 PM-4:45 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 8
Software Applications Linking Weather to Energy Decision Support
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Mitchell T. Baer, Dept. of Energy; Adam H. Turchioe, University at Albany/SUNY
  4:00 PM
8.1
Outage Prediction and Response Optimization (OPRO)
Amith Singhee, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, New York; and A. P. Praino, A. Sabharwal, D. Melville, J. P. Cipriani, L. A. Treinish, S. Abbaspour, S. Siegel, Z. Li, G. Labut, H. Storey, J. Esser, P. Whitman, R. Foltman, R. Mueller, and W. Harlow
  4:30 PM
8.3
Generation Mix Optimization for Australia's Low Carbon Energy System Transition
R. J. Dargaville, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and M. Jeppesen, M. J. Brear, C. Manzie, T. Alpcan, R. Huva, and M. Gannon

4:45 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 9
Energy Applications Weather/Climate Data Part III
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Jenny Dissen, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC/CICS
  4:45 PM
9.1
Very High Resolution Coupled Weather and Wind Power Modeling
Lloyd A. Treinish, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and J. P. Cipriani, A. P. Praino, J. R. Dorronsoro, and J. Diaz
  5:00 PM
9.2
  5:15 PM
9.3

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Lecture 3
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: Room C113 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Seventh Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
  5:00 PM
L3.1

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


94th AMS Awards Banquet

Thursday, 6 February 2014

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 10
Short-Range Forecast Modeling for Wind/Solar Electric Generation Part I
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Kathleen E. Moore, Integrated Environmental Data, LLC
  8:30 AM
10.1
Improvements in short-term solar energy forecasting
Sergio A. Bermudez, IBM T. J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and S. Lu, M. A. Schappert, T. G. van Kessel, and H. F. Hamann
  8:45 AM
10.2
Two methods in improving onshore wind forecast
Hui Du Sr., IBM Research, Beijing, China; and M. Zhang, B. Xie, H. Wang, and L. Treinish
  9:00 AM
10.3
Time-lagged consistency in hourly updated 3km HRRR wind ramp forecasts for 2013/2014
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and J. Olson, C. Alexander, M. Hu, E. James, J. M. Brown, T. Smirnova, S. Weygandt, J. Wilczak, E. Szoke, and C. A. Finley
  9:15 AM
10.4
Micrometeorology of the Southern Great Plains: Legacy Relationships and Short-Term Weather Forecasting for Wind Energy
William Pendergrass, NOAA/OAR/ARL/ATDD, Oak Ridge, TN; and C. A. Vogel and B. B. Hicks

  9:30 AM
10.5
Characterization of marine boundary layer winds from lidar measurements and regional forecast models
Yelena Pichugina, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Banta, A. Brewer, J. Olson, J. Carley, J. Wilczak, I. V. Djalalova, L. Bianco, M. Marquis, S. Benjamin, G. DiMego, and J. W. Cline

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 11
Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Melinda Marquis, NOAA
  11:00 AM
11.1
An Overview of Results from the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)
James M. Wilczak, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, J. B. Olson, S. Benjamin, C. A. Finley, J. M. Freedman, J. Manobianco, J. Carley, K. Orwig, J. W. Cline, and M. Marquis
  11:15 AM
11.2
The Wind Forecast Improvement Project: Final Results From The Southern Study Region
Jeff Freedman, AWS TruePower LLC, Albany, NY; and J. W. Zack, J. Manobianco, P. Beaucage, K. Rojowsky, J. L. Schroeder, B. C. Ancell, K. Brewster, K. Thomas, S. Basu, V. Banunarayanan, K. Orwig, J. M. Wilczak, J. W. Cline, and I. Flores
  11:30 AM
11.3
Overview of the Final Results from the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): Northern Study Area
Catherine A. Finley, WindLogics Inc., Grand Rapids, MN; and J. Wilczak, G. Stark, and G. Brinkman

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 12
Renewable Energy Resource Variablity
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Andrew Clifton, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
  1:30 PM
12.1
A Solar and Wind Integrated Forecast Tool (SWIFT) Designed for the Management of Renewable Energy Variability on Island Grid Systems
John Zack, AWS Truepower LLC, Troy, NY; and S. Young, E. J. Natenberg, T. Melino, and K. T. Waight
  1:45 PM
12.2
  2:00 PM
12.3
Relating Solar Resource Variability to Satellite-retrieved Cloud Properties
Laura M. Hinkelman, JISAO/Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and A. K. Heidinger, C. C. Molling, M. Sengupta, and A. Habte
  2:15 PM
12.4
A Ramp Tool and Metric to Measure the Skill of Numerical Weather Prediction Models at Forecasting Wind Ramp Events
Laura Bianco, NOAA/ESRL/PSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. M. Wilczak, I. V. Djalalova, S. Calvert, J. W. Cline, C. A. Finley, and J. M. Freedman
  2:30 PM
12.5
High Wind Shear and Ramp Events within the Rotor Layer across the Iowa Tall Tower Network
Renee A. Walton, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and E. S. Takle and W. A. Gallus Jr.
  2:45 PM
12.6
Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis of Wind Ramps
Nicholas H. Smith, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 13
Short-Range Forecast Modeling for Wind/Solar Electric Generation Part II
Location: Room C114 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Inanc Senocak, Boise State University
  3:30 PM
13.1
Deterministic Solar Power Forecasting Using Sky Imagery
Chi Wai Chow, Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA; and H. Yang, B. Kurtz, A. Nguyen, B. Urquhart, M. Ghonima, and J. Kleissl
  3:45 PM
13.2
Metrics for Solar Forecasts
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen and B. G. Brown
  4:15 PM
13.4
Adaptive Particle and Kalman Filter for Intra-hour Solar Irradiance Forecasting
Amanpreet Kaur, University of California, La Jolla, CA; and C. F. M. Coimbra

  4:30 PM
13.5
Metrics Development for Evaluating the Accuracy of Solar Power Forecasting
Jie Zhang, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and B. M. Hodge, A. Florita, S. Lu, H. Hamman, and V. Banunarayanan

  4:45 PM
13.6
APPLICATION OF A KALMAN FILTER FOR IMPROVING WIND AND SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTS FOR THE RENEWABLE INDUSTRY
Gerald van der Grijn, MeteoGroup, Wageningen, the Netherlands, Netherlands; and H. Hartmann, D. Malda, and R. Mureau

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


AMS 94th Annual Meeting Adjourns