Time-lagged consistency in hourly updated 3km HRRR wind ramp forecasts for 2013/2014

The 3km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model run experimentally in real-time by NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory in support of renewable energy and other applications is updated hourly, reinitialized with new observations and issuing new 15h forecasts, allowing multiple solutions valid at the same time. During 2013, new attention has been given to forecasts of wind ramp events from HRRR and other mesoscale models.

In this paper, we demonstrate temporal consistency of wind ramp forecasts from successive HRRR forecasts initialized at different times and valid at the same time and new graphical products to identify the degree of consistency of these HRRR wind ramp forecasts. Consistency of these fields (or lack thereof) is important for forecasters and power managers.

We will also give an overview of major 2013 and planned 2014 changes to the HRRR forecast (model changes including to boundary-layer and land-surface, introduction of ensemble data assimilation and 3km radar assimilation). The HRRR continues to be a cornerstone of the ongoing Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) and SunShot solar energy programs sponsored by the US Department of Energy and NOAA to improve detailed forecast guidance for 50-150m wind, wind ramp events and solar/radiation forecasts over those currently available from operational NOAA weather forecast models. This paper will provide a summary of these changes for the conference attendees.