Use of NN based approaches to create high resolution climate meteorological forecasts

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Thursday, 6 February 2014: 9:00 AM
Room C101 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Nabin Malakar, City College of New York, New York, NY; and B. Gross, J. E. Gonzalez, P. Yang, and F. Moshary

The effects of global climate forecasts on regional scale domains requires that the low resolution GCM forecast data can be intelligently modified so that it can be injected into high resolution models such as terrestrial ecosystems etc. This is often called downscaling in the climate forecast literature and is usually performed using one of 2 different strategies. In the first strategy, the use of purely statistical approaches such as interpolation is applied to the GCM low resolution data to provide the high resolution data. Of course, the “high” resolution data really does not possess any high resolution inputs that can drive regional scale models. In particular, valuable high resolution information such as land surface identification and potential emission sources is not used. On the other hand, the potential of using regional Meteorological Models such as WRF can be attempted where the GCM conditions and the forecasted land surface properties are encoded into a future time slice. Of course, this approach is extremely computer intensive and the performance may not be worth the computer resources. In this presentation, we make use of another intermediate approach where low resolution meteorological data including both surface and column integrated parameters are combined with high resolution land surface classification parameters within a NN training scheme in an attempt to improve on purely interpolative approaches. In particular, our study region is the North East domain [{35N,45N} x {-85W,-65W}] . In particular, we focus on High and Low temperature extremes which are the outputs to be considered are obtained within the PRISM data set while the low resolution climatology parameters at low resolution (.5 deg) MET data including Tmax, Tmin, Rhum, Wind Speed, Radiation, Precip and Planetary Boundary Layer height are obtained from the ISI-MIP climatology forecast database. In addition, a high resolution land surface map is used based on the 2006 USGS land surface map. Preliminary results show that the NN approach can result in improved high resolution performance in areas where land surface features change rapidly. In addition, we will make comparisons using the WRF model for the time periods from 2006-2011.