TJ2.1
Projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the IPCC AR5 and 3rd US National Climate Assessment

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Monday, 3 February 2014: 1:30 PM
Room C101 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Michael F. Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA; and J. Arblaster, V. kharin, J. sillman, and K. E. Kunkel

The projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation indices and statistics from the IPCC AR5 and the 3rd US National Climate Assessment will be presented. Both reports make use of the CMIP5 model simulations of the future. The rationale for the measures of extreme weather chosen for the reports will be discussed as well as the differences in extreme projections between the CMIP3 and CMIP5 scenarios. With high confidence, both reports conclude that there will be fewer extremely cold days and more extremely hot days as the average climate warms. In general, rare cold temperature events are projected to warm more than average winter temperatures. Rare high temperature events are projected to warm at rates similar to or in some regions greater than average summer temperatures. Similarly, heavy precipitation events are projected to be more frequent and more intense in a warmer world. The length of dry seasons and other measures of drought are projected to increase over much of the inhabited land masses. The figure shows the change in the 20 year return value of the annual maximum and minimum daily surface air temperatures at the end of the 21st century relative to the end of the 20th century for the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 CMIP5 scenarios.