Predictability and Prediction of Multiyear to Decadal Droughts with a Hybrid Dynamical-Statistical System using CMIP5 Experiments with the MIROC5 Global Earth System Model
Our results indicate that the hybrid prediction system is able to hindcast slow evolution of SC-PDSI reasonably well in Southern Africa, Central India, and the U.S. Great Plains, especially from the 1980s to 2010. These results can be used to develop necessary adaptation measures for water, food, and energy security in the regions where the hybrid prediction system can predict multiyear to decadal droughts with significant skill. This oral presentation will show statistical associations between DCV phenomena and worldwide SC-PDSI, decadal hindcast skill of the DCV phenomena in the CMIP5 experiments with the MIROC5 ESM, and decadal hindcast skill of SC-PDSI. The presentation will also describe and discuss atmospheric teleconnections from the DCV phenomena in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to the regions where these DCV phenomena cause multiyear to decadal droughts.