Now or Then

Most weather related decisions are not simple go no go but are do something now say, tomorrow for do it later say, a day next week. Thus two forecasts are required and a more complex decision rules that takes into account an opportunity lost as well as a longer forecast may not be as accurate. We note that an approved probability can be obtained as a function of the forecast probability and the Brier score.

The decision is even more complex if later is any day next week. Then multiple forecasts are needed and an even more complex decision rule. A wait and see rule requires a probability of a probability being forecast. Happily the Ornstein Uhlenbeck process can give such probabilities. Two or more forecasts combined require a whole new system of verifications.