22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Program Chairs:
- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award WinnerSaturday, 1 February 2014
7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 1 February 2014
Registration for Student Conference and Short Courses
Sunday, 2 February 2014
7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 2 February 2014
Registration for Short Courses and Conference for Early Career Professionals
9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014
Registration Open for Annual Meeting
12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014
WeatherFest
4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014
94th Annual Review, New Fellows, and Featured Awards
Location: Room C302 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Monday, 3 February 2014
7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014
Registration Continues through February 5
9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014
Plenary Session
1
14th Presidential Forum: Extreme Weather, Climate, and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools
Location: Thomas Murphy Ballroom (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes;
the 14th Presidential Forum;
the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation;
the Superstorm Sandy and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools;
the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium;
the Edward S. Epstein Symposium;
the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies;
the 28th Conference on Hydrology;
the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change;
the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction;
the 23rd Symposium on Education;
the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences;
the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA;
the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS);
the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry;
the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences;
the 12th History Symposium;
the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment;
the 11th Conference on Space Weather;
the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment;
the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems;
the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research;
the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions;
the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy;
the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health;
the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium;
the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations;
the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python;
the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise;
the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events;
and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts
)
Moderator:
Panelists:
Speaker:
9:00 AM
Welcoming Remarks
9:25 AM
Panel Discussion
10:25 AM
Concluding Remarks
9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014
Spouses' Coffee
10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014
Coffee Break
11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014
Session
1
Statistical and Probabilistic Methods in Climate Analysis and Prediction–Part 1
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair:
11:00 AM
A prediction of the probability distributions of tropical cyclones tracks in the future climate around Japan: Kazue Suzuki
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014
Lunch Break
1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014
Session
2
Statistical and Probabilistic Methods in Climate Analysis and Prediction—Part 2
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair:
2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014
Poster Session
1
Posters: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer:
Poster 223 has been moved. New paper number is 5.1A
Poster 222 will also be presented at 7.2A
Poster 225 has been moved. New paper number is 1.2A
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014
Themed Joint Session
3
Interdisciplinary Research and Education on Precipitation Prediction and Extremes
Location: Room C109 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 23rd Symposium on Education;
the 28th Conference on Hydrology;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
CoChair:
5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014
Reception and Exhibits Opening
Tuesday, 4 February 2014
9:00 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Session
3
Methods for extreme value analysis, prediction, and evaluation
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair:
9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Spouses' Coffee
9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Joint Poster Session
1
Posters: Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
Cochairs:
Joint Poster Session
3
Integrated Metrics and Benchmarking For Next Generation Hydro/Land Surface Modeling of the Water Cycle Posters
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 28th Conference on Hydrology;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
Cochairs:
11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Joint Session
2
Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques I
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
Cochairs:
Presentations featuring advancements or applications in ensemble prediction techniques, including modeling developments, new statistical techniques, and their applications.
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Lunch Break
Stanley a. Changnon Luncheon
Location: Room B401 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Joint Session
3
Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques II
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
Cochairs:
Presentations featuring advancements or applications in ensemble prediction techniques, including modeling developments, new statistical techniques, and their applications.
3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Coffee Break
Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Joint Session
4
Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques III
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
Cochairs:
Presentations featuring advancements or applications in ensemble prediction techniques, including modeling developments, new statistical techniques, and their applications.
3:45 PM
J4.2
Joint Session
10
Integrated Metrics and Benchmarking For Next Generation Hydro/Land Surface Modeling of the Water Cycle
Location: Room C210 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 28th Conference on Hydrology;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
Chair:
Cochairs:
The 28th Conference on Hydrology and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences is proposing a joint session on next generation, integrated metrics for water cycle modeling from a hydrological and land surface modeling perspective. The advancements in theoretical and computational capabilities provide tremendous opportunities but offer the scientific community challenges in the verification of each of the complex components and their interactions. Hydrology can be considered the "system response" to many of the coupled systems being modeled, so a particular interest of this session will be to explore the verification challenges in many hydrologic variables, such as, precipitation, evaportransporation, streamflow, groundwater and soil moisture. In addition, the development of a common, systematic set of measures will improve the "observability" of various model outputs from these systems. This session will focus on highlighting integrated diagnostic, verification and benchmarking techniques and metrics that promote systematic error and uncertainty quantification across complex modeling components, with the end user in mind. The 'Integrated' metrics refer to measures that examine the hydrological models as a "system" rather than a single variable and/or component (e.g. evaluating the water balance components simultaneously) and are needed to verify the new advancement in earth system modeling, such as the coupling of atmosphere, hydrologic, land surface, ocean and cryosphere earth systems. We invite contributions that lead towards the definition and refinement of such standardized measures of model performance for the land surface and hydrologic community.
5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014
Session
1
Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture
Location: Room C106 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change;
the 14th Presidential Forum;
the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes;
the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation;
the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium;
the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies;
the 28th Conference on Hydrology;
the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction;
the 23rd Symposium on Education;
the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences;
the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA;
the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS);
the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry;
the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences;
the 12th History Symposium;
the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment;
the 11th Conference on Space Weather;
the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment;
the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems;
the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research;
the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions;
the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy;
the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health;
the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium;
the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations;
the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python;
the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise;
the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events;
the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2013;
and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts
)
Wednesday, 5 February 2014
8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Joint Session
5
Edward S. Epstein Symposium, Part I
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the Edward S. Epstein Symposium;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
Cochairs:
8:30 AM
Opening remarks, introduction of Epstein family, and Ed's early life--Bob Glahn and Dick Hallgren
9:30 AM
J5.2
9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Spouses' Coffee
10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Coffee Break
Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Joint Session
6
Edward S. Epstein Symposium, Part II
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the Edward S. Epstein Symposium;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
Cochairs:
11:00 AM
Panel Discussing the Contributions of Ed Epstein–Dick Hallgren, John Zillman, Eugene Bierly, John Leese, Bob Livezey, and Bob Glahn
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Lunch Break
Women in the Atmospheric Sciences Luncheon: A Conversation about the Future
Location: Room C112 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Lecture
2
Horton Lecture
Location: Georgia Ballroom 1 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 28th Conference on Hydrology;
the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes;
the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation;
the Edward S. Epstein Symposium;
the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies;
the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change;
the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction;
the 23rd Symposium on Education;
the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences;
the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA;
the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS);
the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry;
the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences;
the 12th History Symposium;
the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment;
the 11th Conference on Space Weather;
the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment;
the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems;
the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research;
the Seventh Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists;
the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions;
the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy;
the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health;
the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium;
the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations;
the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python;
the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise;
the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events;
and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts
)
Joint Session
7
Edward S. Epstein Symposium, Part III
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the Edward S. Epstein Symposium;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
Cochairs:
Joint Session
9
AI Solar Energy Prediction Contest
Location: Room C204 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences;
the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences;
and the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
)
Cochairs:
1:30 PM
Introductory Remarks
2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Joint Session
8
Edward S. Epstein Symposium, Part IV
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the Edward S. Epstein Symposium;
and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
)
Cochairs:
4:45 PM
Summary of Symposium and Remarks by Individuals
5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Lecture
3
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: Room C113 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint
between the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry;
the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes;
the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation;
the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium;
the Edward S. Epstein Symposium;
the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies;
the 28th Conference on Hydrology;
the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change;
the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction;
the 23rd Symposium on Education;
the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences;
the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA;
the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS);
the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences;
the 12th History Symposium;
the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment;
the 11th Conference on Space Weather;
the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment;
the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems;
the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research;
the Seventh Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists;
the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions;
the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy;
the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health;
the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium;
the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations;
the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python;
the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise;
the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events;
and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts
)
5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014
94th AMS Awards Banquet
Thursday, 6 February 2014
8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 6 February 2014
Session
4
Evaluation of weather, climate, and hydrology forecasts and impacts on the built environment
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair:
9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 6 February 2014
Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014
Session
5
Uncertainty quantification
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs:
11:15 AM
Use of a nonlinear filter to improve the quality of Oklahoma Mesonet surface observations: Alexandria McCombs
12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014
Lunch Break
1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014
Session
6
Statistical model development, statistical forecasting approaches, and ensemble forecasting methods—Part 1
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair:
1:30 PM
6.1
2:00 PM
6.3
2:15 PM
6.4
2:30 PM
6.5
3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014
Registration Closes
3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014
Coffee Break
Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014
Session
7
Statistical model development, statistical forecasting approaches, and ensemble forecasting methods—Part 2
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer:
5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014
AMS 94th Annual Meeting Adjourns