22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences

Program Chairs: Barbara G. Brown , NCAR ; Scott Sellars , Univ. of California ; Brian J. Etherton , NOAA/OAR/ESRL ; Bob Glahn , NOAA/NWS

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 1 February 2014

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 1 February 2014


Registration for Student Conference and Short Courses

Sunday, 2 February 2014

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


Registration for Short Courses and Conference for Early Career Professionals

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


Registration Open for Annual Meeting

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


WeatherFest

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Sunday, 2 February 2014


94th Annual Review, New Fellows, and Featured Awards
Location: Room C302 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

Monday, 3 February 2014

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Registration Continues through February 5

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
14th Presidential Forum: Extreme Weather, Climate, and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools
Location: Thomas Murphy Ballroom (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Superstorm Sandy and the Built Environment: New Perspectives, Opportunities, and Tools; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
Moderator: Margaret Davidson, NOAA/Office for Coastal Management
Panelists: Leslie Chapman-Henderson, Federal Alliance for Safe Homes; David Perkes, Mississippi State Univ.; Ellis Stanley, Hammerman & Gainer International, Inc.; Rear Admiral David W. Titley, Penn State University; Peter Kareiva, The Nature Conservancy
Speaker: Andy Revkin, Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times, and Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding, Pace University
  9:00 AM
Welcoming Remarks

  9:05 AM
PL1.1
The New Communication Climate - An exploration of tools and traits that give the best chance of success in facing a fast-forward media landscape and changing climate
Andy Revkin, Dot Earth blogger, The New York Times, and Senior Fellow for Environmental Understanding, Pace University, New York, NY
  9:25 AM
Panel Discussion

  10:25 AM
Concluding Remarks

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Spouses' Coffee

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Coffee Break

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 1
Statistical and Probabilistic Methods in Climate Analysis and Prediction–Part 1
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Eric Gilleland, NCAR
  11:00 AM
A prediction of the probability distributions of tropical cyclones tracks in the future climate around Japan: Kazue Suzuki
  11:15 AM
1.1
Are Tornadoes Becoming Stronger? A Statistical Model for Tornado Intensity
James Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger and I. J. Elsner
  11:30 AM
1.2A
Prediction of probability distribution of Tropical Cyclone trajectories under future climate around Japan
Kazue Suzuki, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan; and S. Nakano and G. Ueno

  11:45 AM
1.4
  12:00 PM
1.3

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 2
Statistical and Probabilistic Methods in Climate Analysis and Prediction—Part 2
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR
  2:00 PM
2.3
Temporal Clustering of Tropical Cyclone Occurrence
Patrick A. Harr, NPS, Monterey, CA; and H. M. Archambault
  2:15 PM
2.4
Poster introductions
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Poster Session 1
Posters: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR
 
Poster 223 has been moved. New paper number is 5.1A

 
Poster 222 will also be presented at 7.2A

 
224
Applications of a Simple Monte Carlo Model to Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Forecasts
Michael Splitt, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. M. Lazarus and S. Collins

 
Poster 225 has been moved. New paper number is 1.2A

 
423
Now or Then
Albert R. Boehm, Retired, Huntsville, AL


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 3
Interdisciplinary Research and Education on Precipitation Prediction and Extremes
Location: Room C109 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
CoChair: John A. Knox, University Of Georgia
  4:30 PM
TJ3.3
Through the Eyes of the Experts: The Perception of the Probability of Precipitation
Castle Williams, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and A. E. Stewart, A. Horst, E. Knox, B. Brough, and J. A. Knox
  4:45 PM
TJ3.4
Who's the King of PoP? Comparing the Accuracy of NWS and NAM/GFS MOS Precipitation Forecasts for Ten U.S. Cities, 2003–2012
Kyle Mattingly, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and J. A. Knox, C. Davis, R. Hale, L. Lindsey, A. Long, R. Scroggs, J. Rackley, A. E. Stewart, L. Bloch, and J. McLeod
  5:00 PM
TJ3.5
Experiential Learning on Hydrometeorology Through a University Study Abroad Program
Curtis N. James, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, AZ
  5:15 PM
TJ3.6
Raising Geoscience Awareness Among Underrepresented Minority and First Generation Undergraduate STEM Students in New York City
Dr Reginald Blake, New York City College of Technology, Brooklyn, NY; and J. Liou-Mark and N. Blackburn

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 3 February 2014


Reception and Exhibits Opening

Tuesday, 4 February 2014

9:00 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 3
Methods for extreme value analysis, prediction, and evaluation
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Daniel S. Wilks, Cornell University
  9:15 AM
3.2
  9:30 AM
3.3
New strategies to estimate future changes in tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds
Mari Jones, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. D. Youngman, G. J. Holland, D. B. Stephenson, and R. W. Katz

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Spouses' Coffee

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Joint Poster Session 1
Posters: Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Kelly M. Mahoney, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado; Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL
 
118
Ensemble-Based Analysis of Factors Contributing to the 14 June 2010 Oklahoma City Flood
Nathan Dahl, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue
Manuscript (2.6 MB)

 
119
CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasting System: Impact of IC and LBC perturbations
Fanyou Kong, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, K. W. Thomas, Y. Wang, K. Brewster, A. J. Clark, M. C. Coniglio, J. Correia Jr., J. S. Kain, and S. J. Weiss
Manuscript (727.4 kB)

 
120
Improvements in the Canadian Regional Ensemble Prediction System
Ronald Frenette, EC, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. Charron, A. Erfani, and N. Gagnon

Handout (406.1 kB)

 
121
The Development of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
Yuejian Zhu, EMC, College Park, MD; and D. Hou, X. Zhou, R. Wobus, M. Pena, and J. Peng

 
122
Operational Multi-model Medium Range Forecasting: A NUOPC Update
David McCarren, Navy/CNMOC, Silver Springs, MD; and S. Sandgathe, F. Toepfer, and Y. Zhu

 
123
Anomaly Forecast—Useful Tool for Extreme Weather Detection
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, H. Guan, and B. Yang

 
124
Time-Lagged 3-km Ensemble High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecasts for Key Convective Storm, Fire Weather and Wind Energy Events in 2013
Curtis Alexander, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Benjamin, S. S. Weygandt, D. C. Dowell, and E. P. James

 
125
An Evaluation of the Impact of Increased Horizontal Grid Spacing on SREF Performance
Isidora Jankov, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, J. Du, G. DiMego, Y. Zhu, B. G. Brown, E. Mirvis, and Z. toth

 
126
The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF)
Ligia R. Bernardet, Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and I. Jankov, S. Albers, K. Mahoney, T. Workoff, F. Barthold, W. Hogsett, D. Reynolds, and J. Du

 
127
Ensemble Data Assimilation in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) during CONCORDIASI (2010)
Matthew S. Elliott, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. Cavallo and D. B. Parsons

 
128
A neighborhood-based probability of precipitation forecasting technique: Further testing
Michael C. Kochasic, NOAA/NWS, Goodland, KS; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

 
129
Probabilistic Global Convective Hazard Forecasts and Verification
R. Stretton, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. Buchanan, W. Hand, D. Suri, and S. Willington
Manuscript (531.2 kB)

Handout (753.9 kB)

 
132
The Impact of Forecast Error Growth on the Medium-Range Predictability of a European Cyclone
William S. Lamberson, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn and L. F. Bosart

 
133
Preliminary results of ETKF based ensemble precipitation prediction over the Korean Peninsula
Jun Kyung Kay, Yonsei University, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul, South Korea; and H. M. Kim

 
134
Ensemble Cloud Forecasting to Enable Free-Space Optical Communications
Billy D. Felton, Northrop Grumann Corporation, McLean, VA; and R. J. Alliss


Joint Poster Session 3
Integrated Metrics and Benchmarking For Next Generation Hydro/Land Surface Modeling of the Water Cycle Posters
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Hydrology; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Sujay Kumar, NASA/GSFC; Scott Sellars, Univ. of California; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR
 
48
Quantifying the dominant modes of subgrid variability in land surface modeling using the mosaic approach
Sujay V. Kumar, SAIC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. D. Peters-Lidard and K. R. Arsenault

 
49
Sensitivity of albedo and greenness fraction parameters in surface fluxes estimated from Noah land surface models in the FLUXNET sites
Roshan K. Shrestha, EMC, College Park, MD; and H. Wei, J. Dong, P. A. Dirmeyer, and M. B. Ek

 
50
The NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force Capability Assessment Protocol
Andrew W. Wood, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Huang, C. D. Peters-Lidard, A. Mariotti, S. Schubert, L. Luo, M. Svoboda, D. Barrie, and A. Bradley

 
51
Toward benchmarking land surface models for large scale snow predictions using in-situ station observations
Yuqiong Liu, Unvieristy of Maryland and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. D. Peters-Lidard, K. R. Arsenault, and S. V. Kumar


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 2
Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques I
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL; Daniel Hodyss, NRL

Presentations featuring advancements or applications in ensemble prediction techniques, including modeling developments, new statistical techniques, and their applications.
  11:00 AM
J2.1
Algorithmic decision-making under weather uncertainty in atmospheric science field campaigns: a summary
Christopher J. Hanlon, Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. A. Small III, J. Verlinde, and G. S. Young
  11:15 AM
J2.2
Applying Statistical Decision Theory to a Field Experiment with Multiple Research Objectives: The DC3 Campaign
Christopher J. Hanlon, Penn State Univ., University Park, PA; and A. A. Small III, S. Bose, G. Young, and J. Verlinde
  11:30 AM
J2.3
  11:45 AM
J2.4
Representing model uncertainty in data assimilation with stochastic physics
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and P. Pegion and T. Hamill

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Lunch Break

Stanley a. Changnon Luncheon
Location: Room B401 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques II
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL; Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL

Presentations featuring advancements or applications in ensemble prediction techniques, including modeling developments, new statistical techniques, and their applications.
  1:30 PM
J3.1
Convective-scale Warn-on-Forecast
David J. Stensrud, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and L. J. Wicker
  2:00 PM
J3.3
Producing Reforecast-Calibrated Extended-Range Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts
Francisco M. Alvarez, Saint Louis University, Saint Louis, MO; and T. M. Hamill, T. P. Eichler, and C. E. Graves

  2:15 PM
J3.4
Automated Storm Classification For the Development of Probabilistic Hazard Information
Timothy W. Humphrey, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and V. Lakshmanan, T. M. Smith, K. L. Ortega, B. T. Smith, and R. L. Thompson
  2:30 PM
J3.5
  2:45 PM
J3.6
Outside the Envelope: When Ensemble Forecasts Go Awry
Trevor I. Alcott, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Analysis and Forecasting with Ensemble or Probabilistic Techniques III
Location: Room C202 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR

Presentations featuring advancements or applications in ensemble prediction techniques, including modeling developments, new statistical techniques, and their applications.
  3:30 PM
J4.1
A First Look at the Meteorological Development Laboratory's Experimental ECMWF MOS System
David Rudack, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. P. Ruth, K. K. Gilbert, and T. Curtis
  3:45 PM
J4.2
Stochastic tendency in a global atmospheric model
Myung-Seo Koo, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and S. Y. Hong
  4:00 PM
J4.3
Accounting for Varying Variances in Ensemble Post-Processing
Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Bishop
  4:30 PM
J4.5
  4:45 PM
J4.6
Distinct Characteristics of Hurricane Ensemble Forecasts using Physical Parameterizations vs. Stochastic Perturbations
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and F. Judt, J. Berner, C. Y. Lee, M. Curcic, C. Snyder, and R. Rotunno

Recording files available
Joint Session 10
Integrated Metrics and Benchmarking For Next Generation Hydro/Land Surface Modeling of the Water Cycle
Location: Room C210 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Hydrology; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Chair: Sujay V. Kumar, SAIC
Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; Scott Sellars, Univ. of California

The 28th Conference on Hydrology and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences is proposing a joint session on next generation, integrated metrics for water cycle modeling from a hydrological and land surface modeling perspective. The advancements in theoretical and computational capabilities provide tremendous opportunities but offer the scientific community challenges in the verification of each of the complex components and their interactions. Hydrology can be considered the "system response" to many of the coupled systems being modeled, so a particular interest of this session will be to explore the verification challenges in many hydrologic variables, such as, precipitation, evaportransporation, streamflow, groundwater and soil moisture. In addition, the development of a common, systematic set of measures will improve the "observability" of various model outputs from these systems. This session will focus on highlighting integrated diagnostic, verification and benchmarking techniques and metrics that promote systematic error and uncertainty quantification across complex modeling components, with the end user in mind. The 'Integrated' metrics refer to measures that examine the hydrological models as a "system" rather than a single variable and/or component (e.g. evaluating the water balance components simultaneously) and are needed to verify the new advancement in earth system modeling, such as the coupling of atmosphere, hydrologic, land surface, ocean and cryosphere earth systems. We invite contributions that lead towards the definition and refinement of such standardized measures of model performance for the land surface and hydrologic community.
  3:45 PM
J10.2
Results from the international benchmarking project, PLUMBER (PALS Land sUrface Model Benchmarking Evaluation pRoject) (Invited Presentation)
Martin Best, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and G. Abramowitz, H. Johnson, M. Ek, P. A. Dirmeyer, Z. Guo, B. Pak, L. Stevens, M. Decker, G. Balsamo, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, J. A. Santanello Jr., C. D. Peters-Lidard, S. Kumar, A. J. Pitman, A. A. Boone, H. Kim, and T. Oki
  4:15 PM
J10.4
Benchmarking the next phase of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) using the Land Verification Toolkit (LVT)
David M. Mocko, SAIC at NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and C. D. Peters-Lidard, S. Kumar, Y. Xia, M. B. Ek, and J. Dong
  5:00 PM
J10.7
A cross-spectral approach to assessing the performance of hydrological models: observed v modelled daily discharge of the River Thames, UK
Graham Weedon, Met Office, UK, Wallingford, United Kingdom; and C. Prudhomme, S. Crooks, R. Ellis, S. Folwell, and M. Best
  5:15 PM
J10.8
The GEWEX Science Questions and Metrics for Progress
P.J. Van Oevelen, International GEWEX Project Office, Columbia, MD

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 4 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 1
Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture
Location: Room C106 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 14th Presidential Forum; the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2013; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
  5:00 PM
L1.1
Towards a general theory of global monsoons (Invited Presentation)
Peter J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA

Wednesday, 5 February 2014

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Edward S. Epstein Symposium, Part I
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS; Dick Hallgren, AMS
  8:30 AM
Opening remarks, introduction of Epstein family, and Ed's early life--Bob Glahn and Dick Hallgren

  9:45 AM
J5.3
Closure of the Stochastic Dynamic Equations
Rex J. Fleming, Global Aerospace, LLC, Boulder, CO

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Spouses' Coffee

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 6
Edward S. Epstein Symposium, Part II
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS; Dick Hallgren, AMS
  11:00 AM
Panel Discussing the Contributions of Ed Epstein–Dick Hallgren, John Zillman, Eugene Bierly, John Leese, Bob Livezey, and Bob Glahn

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Lunch Break

Women in the Atmospheric Sciences Luncheon: A Conversation about the Future
Location: Room C112 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Lecture 2
Horton Lecture
Location: Georgia Ballroom 1 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Seventh Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
Recording files available
Joint Session 7
Edward S. Epstein Symposium, Part III
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Dick Hallgren, AMS; Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS
  1:30 PM
J7.1
On the estimation of climatology using harmonics (Invited Presentation)
Huug van den Dool, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD; and D. A. Unger
  2:00 PM
J7.2
Tracking Climate Change: Ed Epstein's Influence and Mentorship (Invited Presentation)
Robert E. Livezey, NWS Retired, Self-Employed Consultant, Bethesda, MD
Recording files available
Joint Session 9
AI Solar Energy Prediction Contest
Location: Room C204 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; and the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Cochairs: David John Gagne II, University of Oklahoma; Amy McGovern, Univ. of Oklahoma
  1:30 PM
Introductory Remarks

  1:45 PM
9.1
Forecasting Daily Solar Energy Production Using Robust Regression Techniques
Gilles Louppe, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium; and P. Prettenhofer
  2:15 PM
9.3
A Blending Approach to Solar Energy Prediction
Lucas Eustaquio Gomes da Silva, Belo Horizonte , Brazil; and G. Titericz Jr.

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Joint Session 8
Edward S. Epstein Symposium, Part IV
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; and the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences )
Cochairs: Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS; Dick Hallgren, AMS
  4:00 PM
J8.1
Climate Change and the Predictability of Extreme Events
Dan C. Collins, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and D. A. Unger and E. E. Riddle
  4:45 PM
Summary of Symposium and Remarks by Individuals

5:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014

Recording files available
Lecture 3
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: Room C113 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Hosts: (Joint between the 16th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the Second Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Impacts on Weather and Climate Extremes; the Second Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Stanley A. Changnon Symposium; the Edward S. Epstein Symposium; the 30th Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 28th Conference on Hydrology; the 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting / 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; the 23rd Symposium on Education; the 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences; the 18th Joint Conference on the Applications of Air Pollution Meteorology with the A&WMA; the 18th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 12th Conference on Artificial and Computational Intelligence and its Applications to the Environmental Sciences; the 12th History Symposium; the 12th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 11th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Symposium on the Urban Environment; the Tenth Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the Ninth Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic Research; the Seventh Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Sixth Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Fifth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Fifth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fourth Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology Special Symposium; the Fourth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fourth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Second Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Second Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; and the Special Symposium on Severe Local Storms: The Current State of the Science and Understanding Impacts )
  5:00 PM
L3.1

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 5 February 2014


94th AMS Awards Banquet

Thursday, 6 February 2014

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 4
Evaluation of weather, climate, and hydrology forecasts and impacts on the built environment
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division
  8:30 AM
4.1
  8:45 AM
4.2
Customized Verification Applied to High-Resolution WRF-ARW Forecasts for Rio de Janeiro
James P. Cipriani, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center, Yorktown Heights, NY; and L. A. Treinish, A. P. Praino, R. Cerqueira, M. N. Santos, V. C. Segura, I. C. Oliveira, K. Mantripragada, and P. Jourdan
  9:15 AM
4.4
Challenges of incorporating the event-based perspective into verification techniques
Matthew S. Wandishin, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division and CIRES Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Layne, B. J. Etherton, and M. A. Petty

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall C3 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 5
Uncertainty quantification
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Cochairs: Dan Collins, NOAA/CPC; Brian J. Etherton, NOAA//Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division
  11:00 AM
Reforecasts at CPC: Dan Collins
  11:15 AM
Use of a nonlinear filter to improve the quality of Oklahoma Mesonet surface observations: Alexandria McCombs
  11:30 AM
5.1A
Use of a nonlinear filter to improve the quality of Oklahoma Mesonet surface observations
Alexandria McCombs, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK; and N. E. Bain and R. Jabrzemski

  11:45 AM
5.2A
  12:00 PM
5.3

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 6
Statistical model development, statistical forecasting approaches, and ensemble forecasting methods—Part 1
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Chair: Scott Sellars, Univ. of California
  1:30 PM
6.1
  1:45 PM
6.2
Recent Development to Improve NAEFS SPP
Hong Guan, Systems Research Group Inc./EMC and NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and B. Cui
  2:15 PM
6.4
Experimental MOS Precipitation Type Guidance from the ECMWF Model
Phillip E. Shafer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack
  2:30 PM
6.5
Statistical forecasting of rainfall from radar reflectivity in Singapore
Xiao Liu, IBM, Singapore, Singapore; and V. Gopal and L. A. Treinish

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


Coffee Break

Meet the President
Location: Room C103 (The Georgia World Congress Center )

3:30 PM-4:45 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014

Recording files available
Session 7
Statistical model development, statistical forecasting approaches, and ensemble forecasting methods—Part 2
Location: Room C205 (The Georgia World Congress Center )
Host: 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences
Organizer: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR
  3:30 PM
7.1
Preliminary Evaluation of a Fused Algorithm for the Prediction of Severe Storms
John L. Cintineo, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and M. J. Pavolonis and J. Sieglaff
  3:45 PM
7.2A
An Updated Look at Tropical Cyclone Data/Statistics From A Global Perspective
Matthew Bolton, Pasco Hernando Community College, Naples, FL; and H. M. M. Mogil

  4:00 PM
7.3
  4:15 PM
7.4
Understanding SREF Ensemble Behavior Using the Method for Object Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE)
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Fowler, I. Jankov, J. H. Gotway, R. Bullock, E. Tollerud, and B. G. Brown

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 6 February 2014


AMS 94th Annual Meeting Adjourns