Correcting for the Seasonal Cycle of Bias in the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Using the GEFS reforecast v2
Recently, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) released a reforecast dataset of the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), which issued historical forecasts from 01 December 1984 to the present, consisting of 10 ensemble members plus the control run. Here, we use this dataset to investigate the seasonal cycle of 2-meter temperature forecast bias globally. Once calculated, the seasonal cycle of bias can be subtracted from real time forecasts to provide a stable bias corrected forecast.
This presentation will focus on the seasonal cycle of 2-meter temperature bias in the GEFS reforecast v2, and demonstrate how correcting for the known model bias can improve the overall model 2-meter temperature forecast.