Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy

Program Chairs: Heidi Centola , CME Group ; Brian D'Agostino , Sempra Energy

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Saturday, 3 January 2015

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 3 January 2015


Registration for Student Conference and Short Courses
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Sunday, 4 January 2015

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Registration for Short Courses and Conference for Early Career Professionals
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


WeatherFest
Location: Hall 1 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Newcomer’s Welcome and Informational Exchange
Location: 127ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


95th Annual Review, New Fellows, and Featured Awards
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

5:45 PM-8:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Fellows Reception
Location: North Ballroom Foyer (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Monday, 5 January 2015

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Registration Continues through January 7
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
15th Presidential Forum: Will Weather Change Forever—Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
Location: North Ballroom CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2014; the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the Harry R. Glahn Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Eighth Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fifth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Third Annual Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling; the Special Symposium on the South Asia Monsoon; the Air Pollution Meteorology and Human Health Symposium; and the 15th Presidential Forum )
Program Chair: Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA
Moderator: Kimberly E. Klockow, NOAA
Keynote: Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA
Panelists: Bernadette Woods Placky, Climate Central; Mac Devine, IBM Cloud Services Division; Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA; Curtis L. Walker, University of Nebraska

Twenty five years hence, meteorology will be much different and expand far beyond the traditional weather forecast. Personal sensors will monitor weather nearly everywhere. Advanced computing will allow us to forecast at perhaps minute scales and kilometer resolutions, customized for each particular user. Post-mobile devices will enable instantaneous use of the information – even in remote areas of today’s developing nations. Transportation will be safer, businesses will operate more efficiently, events will automatically schedule around anticipated weather, and much more. Operational weather forecasts will be interlaced with new environmental elements that impact economic, health, energy, and security decisions. Many aspects of our daily lives will change forever. Climate change’s possibilities add a critical dimension to community resiliency. Should global weather patterns be altered, forecasting could become more challenging than today. The recent release of the fifth IPCC synthesis report has brought focus to this particular issue. Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA Administrator, will lead the session with a keynote on her vision for the meteorology enterprise in the year 2040. Following her keynote, the panelists - representing different demographics and perspectives - will then provide their vision, accompanied by a moderated discussion among the panelists.
  9:00 AM
William B (Bill) Gail: Introductory remarks
  9:08 AM
Kimberly E. Klockow: Moderator welcoming remarks
  9:16 AM
Dr. Kathryn Sullivan: AMS 2015 Annual Meeting Presidential Forum Keynote
  9:24 AM
Curtis Walker: Will Weather Change Forever – Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
  9:32 AM
Bernadette Woods Placky: Will Weather Change Forever? Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
  9:40 AM
Mac Devine: The Perfect Storm Intensifies - The Convergence of BigData, Cloud and the Internet of Things is Now at Full Strength

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Spouses' Coffee

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Coffee Break
Location: North Ballroom Foyer (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

11:00 AM-11:45 AM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 1
Software Applications Linking Weather to Energy Decision Support
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Heidi Centola, CME Group; Lawrence C. Gloeckler, SUNY
  11:30 AM
1.3

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Lunch Break

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Daily Weather Briefings
Location: 132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-2:00 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 2
Energy Risk Management and the Importance of Linking Weather to Energy Planning
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Heidi Centola, CME Group; Lawrence C. Gloeckler, SUNY
  1:30 PM
2.1
Natural Gas Prices and the Extreme Winters of 2011/12 and 2013/14: Causes, Indicators, and Interactions
Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and S. Bennett, J. Cordeira, J. Crouch, J. Dissen, A. L. Lang, D. Margolin, A. O'Shay, J. Rennie, and M. Ventrice

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session
Energy Poster Session
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
 
372
A Global Survey of Kelvin Waves and Tropical Cyclogenesis
Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC

 
374
NOAA ISIS and SURFRAD stations for verification of solar forecasts for the Solar Forecast Improvement Project (SFIP)
Kathleen Lantz, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. J. Michalsky, M. Marquis, G. B. Hodges, E. Hall, J. Wendell, and D. Longenecker

 
375
Characterization Of Mesoscale Variability in WRF - a Coastal Low-level Jet Case Study
Ken Tay, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore; and J. K. Lundquist, M. Skote, and T. Y. Koh

 
376
Impact of Climate Change on Commercial and Residential Building Energy Consumption
Jianhua Huang, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and K. Gurney

 
378
Intra-hour solar power forecasts using a real-time irradiance monitoring network
Antonio T. Lorenzo, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and W. F. Holmgren, M. Leuthold, C. K. Kim, A. D. Cronin, and E. A. Betterton

 
379
The MDA Solar Power Forecast System: Sub-hourly variability and behind-the-meter generation
Stephen D. Jascourt, MDA Information Systems LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and D. Kirk-Davidoff, C. C. Cassidy, and T. Hartman

Handout (840.1 kB)

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 3
Energy Applications for Weather/Climate Data
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Melinda Marquis, NOAA; Jennifer F. Newman, University of Oklahoma
  4:00 PM
3.1
  4:15 PM
3.2
Radar Wind Profiler Deployments to Improve Short-Term Forecasting for Wind Plants
Julia Flaherty, PNNL, Richland, WA; and W. J. Shaw, J. M. Wilczak, A. White, T. Ayers, and J. R. Jordan
  4:30 PM
3.3
Modeling the variability of renewable generation and electrical demand in RTOs and cities with reanalyzed winds, insolation and temperature
Daniel Kirk-Davidoff, MDA Information Systems LLC, Gaithersburg, MD; and S. D. Jascourt and C. C. Cassidy
  4:45 PM
3.4
Impacts of Wind Farms on Cumulus Cloud Development in the Central Great Plains
Laren C. Mahoney, Creighton University, Omaha, NE; and T. J. Wagner, T. L'Ecuyer, and M. S. Kulie

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Reception and Exhibits Opening
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Tuesday, 6 January 2015

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 4
Short-Range Forecast Modeling for Solar Electric Generation
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Brian D'Agostino, Sempra Energy
  8:30 AM
4.1
WRF-Solar to Advance Solar Power Forecasting
Pedro A. Jimenez, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt, J. Hacker, and J. Dudhia
  8:45 AM
4.2
Predicting Distributed Solar Power Production for Utilities
Julia M. Pearson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt, T. L. Jensen, C. Burghardt, T. C. McCandless, T. Brummet, and S. Dettling
  9:00 AM
4.3
Comparison of Solar Energy Nowcasting Techniques
Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt, P. Jimenez Munoz, T. C. McCandless, M. A. Rogers, and S. D. Miller
  9:15 AM
4.4
Clustering Techniques for Improved Solar Forecasting and Utility Operations
Carlos F.M. Coimbra, University of California, La Jolla, CA

  9:30 AM
4.5
An Integrated Operational System for Solar Power Forecasting
Duane Apling, Northrop Grumman Corporation, McLean, VA; and G. Higgins, K. Darmenova, and S. Freeman

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015


Spouses' Coffee

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Recording files available
Lecture 1
Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Presidential Forum; the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2014; the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the Harry R. Glahn Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling )
  11:00 AM
L1.1
Model Diagnoses of El Nino Teleconnections to the Global Atmosphere-Ocean System
Ngar-Cheung Lau, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
Recording files available
Session 5
Short-Range Forecast Modeling for Solar Electric Generation II
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Yelena L. Pichugina, NOAA
  11:00 AM
5.1
Solar Metrics — The Relationship Between Forecast System Component Behavior and the Overall Score
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and A. R. S. Anderson, B. G. Brown, S. E. Haupt, and T. Fowler
  11:15 AM
5.2
Weather Based Irradiance Modeling of the Solar Strand at the University at Buffalo
John McGreevy, SUNY, Buffalo, NY; and T. Singh and M. Majji

  11:45 AM
5.4
Solar Forecasts from the 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
Eric P. James, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. B. Olson, M. Marquis, and C. R. Alexander

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015


Lunch Break

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015


Daily Weather Briefings
Location: 132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 6
Electric Generation Forecast Modeling for Wind and Solar
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Evan G. Osler, NRG Systems, Inc.; James M. Wilczak, NOAA/ESRL
  1:30 PM
6.1
Power Curve Modeling in Complex Terrain Using Statistical Models
Vera Bulaevskaya, LLNL, Livermore, CA; and S. Wharton, A. Clifton, G. Qualley, and W. Miller

  1:45 PM
6.2
An Operational Forecasting System for Renewable Power in the Southwest US Using NWP, Satellite Imagery, and DG PV Production Data
William F. Holmgren, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and M. Leuthold, C. K. Kim, A. T. Lorenzo, E. A. Betterton, and A. D. Cronin
  2:15 PM
6.4
Improvements in Satellite-Derived Short-Term Insolation Forecasting: Statistical Comparisons, Challenges for Advection-Based Forecasts, and New Techniques
Matthew A. Rogers, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. D. Miller, J. M. Haynes, A. Heidinger, S. E. Haupt, and M. Sengupta
  2:30 PM
6.5
  2:45 PM
6.6
HRRR/Rapid Refresh Assimilation/Modeling improvements for Wind/Solar Energy Guidance
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, E. James, J. Brown, C. Alexander, and J. Kenyon

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet the President
Location: 126A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:30 PM-5:15 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 7
Wind Modeling for Short-Range Forecasting
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Larry K. Berg, PNNL; Eric E. Wertz, MDA Information Systems, LLC
  4:00 PM
7.3
Meteorological Analysis of Large Power-Error Events in the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (Wfip) Data Set
James M. Wilczak, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, D. J. Gottas, P. J. Neiman, and J. B. Olson
  4:15 PM
7.4
Development of a wind turbine icing event database
Daniel R. Adriaansen, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and P. Prestopnik, D. Blanche, and M. Politovich
  4:30 PM
7.5
  5:00 PM
7.7
Investigating Marine Boundary Layer Parameterizations for Improved Off-Shore Wind Predictions by Combining Observations with Models via State Estimation
Luca delle Monache, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Hacker, B. Kosovic, J. A. Lee, F. Vandenberghe, Y. Wu, A. Clifton, S. Hawkins, J. N. Nissen, and D. Rostkier-Edelstein

Wednesday, 7 January 2015

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Applications of Lidar in the Energy Sector
Location: 211A West Building (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; and the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Cochairs: Sara C. Tucker, Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp.; Rebecca M. Pauly, University of Wyoming
  8:45 AM
J1.2
Evaluation of the Six-Beam Lidar Scanning Strategy at the Boulder Atmospheric Observatory
Jennifer F. Newman, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. A. Bonin, P. M. Klein, S. Wharton, P. B. Chilson, A. Muschinski, A. Sathe, L. M. Root, and S. Tichkule
  9:00 AM
J1.3
Two-component wind fields from single scanning aerosol lidar
Shane D. Mayor, California State Univ., Chico, CA; and P. Dérian, C. F. Mauzey, and M. Hamada

  9:15 AM
J1.4
Lidar Uncertainty Measurement Experiment (LUMEX) – An Overview
Aditya Choukulkar, CU Boulder/NOAA/ESRL/CSD, Boulder, CO; and W. A. Brewer, R. M. Banta, R. M. Hardesty, Y. L. Pichugina, C. J. Senff, S. P. Sandberg, A. M. Weickmann, G. Antoszewski, B. J. Carroll, R. Delgado, J. K. Lundquist, M. E. Rhodes, B. Kosovic, A. Muschinski, K. S. Barr, and D. Wolfe
  9:30 AM
J1.5
Dual Doppler Lidar Wind Profiling in the Lidar Uncertainty Measurement Experiment (LUMEX)
Brian J. Carroll, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and A. Choukulkar, R. Delgado, R. M. Hardesty, S. P. Sandberg, G. Antoszewski, W. A. Brewer, J. K. Lundquist, and A. Muschinski
  9:45 AM
J1.6
Lidar Uncertainty Measurement Experiment (LUMEX) – Profiling lidar Intercomparisons
Julie K. Lundquist, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. E. Rhodes, J. C. Y. Lee, P. T. Quelet, R. Robey, C. St. Martin, K. Tay, B. Vanderwende, R. Worsnop, B. Kosovic, A. Choukulkar, W. A. Brewer, R. M. Banta, R. M. Hardesty, Y. L. Pichugina, C. J. Senff, S. P. Sandberg, A. M. Weickmann, G. Antoszewski, B. J. Carroll, R. Delgado, A. Muschinski, and D. E. Wolfe
Recording files available
Joint Session 2
MJO Prediction and Tropical Cyclones
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact )
Cochairs: John Bosse, Schneider Electric; Matthew Janiga, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
  8:30 AM
J2.1
  8:45 AM
J2.2
The MJO's Impacts on Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Using an Extended MJO Index (1905-2011)
Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and E. Oliver

  9:00 AM
J2.3
Wake Vortex Formation and Tropical Cyclogenesis West of Sumatra During DYNAMO
Caitlin M. Fine, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson
  9:15 AM
J2.4

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Spouses' Coffee

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet the President
Location: 126A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
Applications of Lidar in the Energy Sector - II
Location: 211A West Building (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; and the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
Cochairs: Shane D. Mayor, California State Univ.; Brian J. Carroll, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County
  10:30 AM
J3.1
New DOE Lidar Buoys for MABL Measurements in Support of Offshore Wind Energy
William J. Shaw, PNNL, Richland, WA; and J. A. Ward, G. Matzat, A. Duerr, J. W. Cline, R. K. Newsom, S. Matzner, and M. Pekour
  10:45 AM
J3.2
New DOE Lidar Buoys: Evaluation of lidar wind profiles obtained during initial offshore performance tests
Rob K. Newsom, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. Matzner, M. Pekour, W. J. Shaw, J. A. Ward, G. Matzat, A. Duerr, and J. W. Cline
  11:15 AM
J3.4
Investigating low-level jet wind profiles using two different lidar scanning strategies
Brian Joseph Vanderwende, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. K. Lundquist
  11:30 AM
J3.5
Using Doppler Wind Lidar to Assess Meteorological Controls on Offshore Wind Power Generation
Ruben Delgado, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD; and N. Goudarzi, S. Rabenhorst, F. Daham, G. Antoszewski, D. Wesloh, and A. St. Pé
  11:45 AM
J3.6
Low Level Jet properties and the rotor layer wind shear from offshore lidar measurements
Yelena L. Pichugina, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and R. M. Banta, W. A. Brewer, A. Choukulkar, R. M. Hardesty, A. M. Weickmann, and S. P. Sandberg

Recording files available
Joint Session 4
Extratropical Interactions with the MJO
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact )
Cochairs: Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University; Matthew Janiga, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
  10:30 AM
J4.1
Impact of the MJO on the Initiation of Mesoscale Convective System over the US Corn Belt
Elisabeth F. Callen, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and T. C. Chen
  11:45 AM
J4.6
Extratropical Influence on the MJO Seasonality
Marcus N. Morgan II, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and P. Ray

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Lunch Break

Women in the Atmospheric Sciences Luncheon
Location: 213AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Daily Weather Briefings
Location: 132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Lecture 2
Horton Lecture
Location: 127ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Eighth Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling )
Chair: Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
Recording files available
Joint Session 5
Applications of Artificial Intelligence Methods for Energy-Part I
Location: 124B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; and the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
CoChair: Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR
  1:30 PM
J5.1
An AI Approach to Forecasting Net Loads and Distributed Solar Production for Utilities
John K. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Wiener, S. E. Haupt, T. Brummet, S. Dettling, and J. M. Pearson
Recording files available
Session 8
Medium-Range, Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Scale Forecast Techniques and Modeling for Energy Demand
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Cochairs: Mitchell T. Baer, Dept. of Energy; Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University
  2:00 PM
8.3
Global vs. Local MJO Forecast Skills
Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. LIng, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. Beljaars, R. M. Forbes, F. Vitart, and M. Ulate
  2:15 PM
8.4
Heat waves and MJO: prospects for subseasonal excessive heat outlooks
Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland/Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Gottschalck

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Recording files available
Joint Session 6
Applications of Artificial Intelligence Methods for Energy-Part II
Location: 124B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; and the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy )
CoChair: Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR
  4:00 PM
J6.1
A Multi-Faceted Approach Towards Solar Forecasting
Edwin Campos, Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL; and E. Constantinescu, J. Wang, Z. Zhou, A. Botterud, D. Cook, H. F. Hamann, and S. Lu

  4:45 PM
J6.4
Machine Learning Based Multi-model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecasting
Siyuan Lu, IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY; and Y. Hwang, I. Khabibrakhmanov, H. Dang, T. van Kessel, F. Marianno, X. Shao, and H. F. Hamann

  5:00 PM
J6.5
A Regime-Dependent Bayesian Approach to Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasts
Tyler C. McCandless, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt, G. S. Young, and A. J. Annunzio
Recording files available
Joint Session 7
MJO Prediction and Impacts
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; and the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact )
Cochairs: Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University; Matthew Janiga, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
  4:15 PM
J7.2
The influence of the MJO on Spring Equatorial West African convection
Fisseha Berhane, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and B. F. Zaitchik
  4:45 PM
J7.4
  5:00 PM
J7.5
  5:15 PM
J7.6
The MJO signal in the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System
Malaquias Peña, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu, X. Zhou, D. Hou, and Q. Zhang

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


95th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Thursday, 8 January 2015

8:30 AM-9:15 AM: Thursday, 8 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 9
High Density Weather Observing Networks Utilized in Wind/Solar Electric Generation
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Randall P. Benson, Iberdrola Renewables
  8:30 AM
9.1
Results from the Position of Offshore Wind Energy Resources (POWER) Study
Melinda Marquis, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Olson, R. M. Banta, Y. L. Pichugina, S. Benjamin, E. P. James, J. M. Wilczak, I. V. Djalalova, L. Bianco, J. Carley, and J. W. Cline
  8:45 AM
9.2
The Next-Generation Satellite Product for NREL's National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB)
Manajit Sengupta, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO; and A. Habte, P. Gotseff, A. Lopez, A. Weekley, Y. Xie, C. C. Molling, and A. Heidinger

9:15 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 8 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 10
New Technologies for the Production of Renewable Energy
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Joel W. Cline, U.S. Department of Energy
  9:15 AM
10.1

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Lecture 3
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: 124A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2014; the 15th Presidential Forum; the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the Harry R. Glahn Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fifth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling; and the Air Pollution Meteorology and Human Health Symposium )
  11:00 AM
L3.1
Recording files available
Session 11
Climate Data and Modeling Applied to Long-Term Renewable Energy Resource Development
Location: 224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy
Chair: Jennifer F. Newman, University of Oklahoma
  11:00 AM
11.1
National Energy with Weather System (NEWS) sets bounds on cost effective wind and solar PV deployment without storage
Christopher T. Clack, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and A. MacDonald, A. Alexander, A. Dunbar, Y. Xie, and J. M. Wilczak
  11:30 AM
11.3
Hydroclimatic impacts of perennial biofuel crop expansion
Melissa A. Wagner, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and M. Georgescu, M. Wang, A. Mahalov, and G. Miguez-Macho

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Lunch Break

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Daily Weather Briefings
Location: 132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet the President
Location: 126A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


AMS 95th Annual Meeting Adjourns