An observational study of the impacts of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on South Asian monsoon onset
In this study, we use reanalysis and satellite-base data to explore statistical relationships between these two important tropical circulations. Preliminary results suggest that years in which the monsoon has a later-than-normal onset have a stronger eastward MJO propagation. In other words, there seems to be a so far unrecognized association between late ISM onset and strong MJO activity. Correlations between the MJO and other important aspects of the monsoonal circulation, such as Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures, lower- and upper-level winds, meridional and zonal wind shears are explored. By shedding further insights into the connection between the MJO and the ISM, this study has the potential to improve seasonal predictions skills of monsoon onset, which to date remain limited.