Meteorological Analysis of Large Power-Error Events in the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (Wfip) Data Set
Large error events are defined on the basis of the 3 hour running mean of the difference between forecast and observed power, aggregated within each of the two WFIP study areas. Using 6 hour forecasts from the 3 km resolution NOAA/High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, and observed pseudo-power derived from anemometers on 127 tall tower sites in the two WFIP study areas, we find 27 events in the North Study Area with aggregate error greater than 20% of capacity, and 31 events in the South Study Area with aggregate error greater than 30% of capacity over the WFIP year-long field program. These events are categorized according to season, meteorological condition, being an over- or under-forecast, and length of the event. We also compare statistics to large errors calculated using the 13km resolution NOAA/Rapid Refresh model (RAP), and to errors calculated for individual tower locations (instead of the aggregated power).