The Ensemble Tool in AWIPS II

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
Tuesday, 6 January 2015: 9:15 AM
132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Paul Schultz, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and E. Polster, X. Jing, T. J. LeFebvre, and W. Roberts

The NOAA/ESRL Global System Division is developing software to display and manipulate ensemble forecast model data on AWIPS II. It is written in Java using Raytheon's baseline code and architecture principles as much as possible.

During FY14 we implemented in AWIPS II the basic capabilities we prototyped in 2008 within a modified version of AWIPS, which was shared with and tested by several WFOs. The capabilities include spaghetti diagrams (thinned contour plots), plumes (time series), and histograms. The current Ensemble Tool also allows for simple calculations such as mean, standard deviation, and ensemble relative frequency.

Our FY15 plans include an interactive tool to use on calibrated ensembles (e.g., downscaled SREF and NAEFS) to estimate event probabilities, or the value associated with a chosen probability threshold. Also, we will provide a way to access ensemble model grids, such as the individual SREF members, and other datasets not included in SBN. In particular, we want to implement the ability to produce anomaly diagnostics that are used in decision support to convey the rarity or seriousness of a given situation.