Twenty five years hence, meteorology will be much different and expand far beyond the traditional weather forecast. Personal sensors will monitor weather nearly everywhere. Advanced computing will allow us to forecast at perhaps minute scales and kilometer resolutions, customized for each particular user. Post-mobile devices will enable instantaneous use of the information – even in remote areas of today’s developing nations. Transportation will be safer, businesses will operate more efficiently, events will automatically schedule around anticipated weather, and much more. Operational weather forecasts will be interlaced with new environmental elements that impact economic, health, energy, and security decisions. Many aspects of our daily lives will change forever. Climate change’s possibilities add a critical dimension to community resiliency. Should global weather patterns be altered, forecasting could become more challenging than today. The recent release of the fifth IPCC synthesis report has brought focus to this particular issue. Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA Administrator, will lead the session with a keynote on her vision for the meteorology enterprise in the year 2040. Following her keynote, the panelists - representing different demographics and perspectives - will then provide their vision, accompanied by a moderated discussion among the panelists.
William B (Bill) Gail: Introductory remarks
Kimberly E. Klockow: Moderator welcoming remarks
Dr. Kathryn Sullivan: AMS 2015 Annual Meeting Presidential Forum Keynote
Curtis Walker: Will Weather Change Forever – Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
Bernadette Woods Placky: Will Weather Change Forever? Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
Mac Devine: The Perfect Storm Intensifies - The Convergence of BigData, Cloud and the Internet of Things is Now at Full Strength
Town Hall Meeting: Core Science Talk – Multi-hazard Impact Science with an Emphasis on Natural Hazards
Location: 131C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
The last few years has seen an increasing focus by the Met Office in the UK to provide Impact-based weather warnings in response to the public's, disaster management authorities' and Governments' needs to have a common, meaningful and understandable means of weather hazard communication. The UK's National Severe Weather Warning Service went impact-based in 2011 and a series of successfully communicated high impact flooding and wind storms events since then have provided ample evidence of the common language now being spoken between the scientists, planners and responders. The biggest challenge now is to further develop the underpinning science of weather hazard impact by integrating the mature science of weather forecasting with the developing science of hazard vulnerability and exposure. This necessarily requires an increasing dependency on other agencies and new databases, the development of interoperable science and visualisation frameworks and new and innovative means of monitoring and reporting hazard impact. The Natural Hazard Partnership, chaired by the Met Office, is leading the way in coordinating work in the UK to broaden the science to services pipeline into a range of multi-hazard impact assessments. This town hall talk looks to take us on the journey that is multi-hazard impact science into relevant and understandable assessments and warnings to the public, disaster management authorities and UK Governments.
The second half of the town hall will feature an update and discussion of the Bárðarbunga volcanic activity and its impacts with updates from Sara Barsotti from the IMO and others.
Joint Panel Discussion
Often climate models and data are complex and built for use by climate scientists, but what about the decision makers looking for climate information to make decisions? Creating information from climate data and models involves making the data easy to understand and useful to citizen scientists and non-scientists alike. How can climate experts provide outlooks on climate useful for decisions on policy, infrastructure, resources, and life and safety? Some issues related to providing this information include data/model uncertainty, sampling errors, spatial resolution, model downscaling, visualization, liability, and risk management, to name a few. This panel will discuss plans, strategies, challenges, perspectives, technologies, and the future of climate change information and services for society.
Stephen Ambrose Introduction