European modelling and analysis of atmospheric composition (including volcanic emissions)

Air quality is defined as the quality of the air that one directly breathes at the surface. It directly affects lives of most European citizens. It forms a significant risk factor for various health conditions and can also aggravate existing health conditions, such as respiratory disease. On a larger scale, atmospheric composition represents the full state of the global atmosphere covering phenomena such as desert dust plumes, long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants and ash plumes from volcanic eruptions, but also variations and long-term changes in the background concentrations of trace components.

MACC-III, an EU-funded project, uses a comprehensive global monitoring and forecasting system that estimates the state of the atmosphere on a daily basis, combining information from models and observations, and it provides a daily 5-day forecast. The global modelling system is also used to provide the boundary conditions for an ensemble of more detailed regional air quality models that are used to zoom in on the European domain and produce 4-day forecasts of air quality.

Examples of the MACC system's capability to analyse and forecast volcanic ash plumes will be shown.