A Statistical Evaluation of Hydrologic Forecasting on the Missouri River From 1983 to 2013

The authors examine collectively the long-term river stage verification statistics for twelve daily forecast locations on the Missouri River from Sioux City, Iowa downstream to Saint Charles, Missouri. This study covers the time period from Jan 1, 1983 through Dec 31, 2013 and focuses on forecast lead times of 24, 48, and 72 hours. The methods used for this statistical analysis are with correlation (scatter plots), distribution properties (standard deviation), and accuracy “error statistics” (mean absolute error and mean error). The paper also includes the topics of long-term flows in the Missouri basin with regard to forecasting errors, and the many changes in hydrologic modeling and forecasting that have taken place the past three decades.