The Development of NAEFS Statistical Post-Processing System
This study will focus on the future NAEFS SPP development and implementation: 1). Generate high resolution (NDGD grid) downscaled probabilistic forecast for CONUS (2.5km) and Alaska (3km) with additional variables (wind gust, cloud cover and etc.); 2). Use reforecast data to improve calibrated ensemble forecasts; 3). Introduce varied decaying coefficients (varied by lead time, domains and seasons) to optimum the 1st moment bias correction technique; 4) Apply Recursive Bayesian Model Process (RBMP) method to improve blending process (different weights) and 2nd moment; and 5). Introduce smart initialization system (developed by NCEP/EMC and ESRL/GSD) to adjust NDFD high resolution grid data before applying NAEFS statistical downscaling process. Preliminary results demonstrate that additional values are added from each stated process.