Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling

Program Chairs: Barbara G. Brown , NCAR ; Scott Sellars , Univ. of California ; Brian J. Etherton , NOAA/OAR/ESRL

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Saturday, 3 January 2015

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 3 January 2015


Registration for Student Conference and Short Courses
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Sunday, 4 January 2015

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Registration for Short Courses and Conference for Early Career Professionals
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


WeatherFest
Location: Hall 1 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Newcomer’s Welcome and Informational Exchange
Location: 127ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


95th Annual Review, New Fellows, and Featured Awards
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

5:45 PM-8:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Fellows Reception
Location: North Ballroom Foyer (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Monday, 5 January 2015

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Registration Continues through January 7
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
15th Presidential Forum: Will Weather Change Forever—Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
Location: North Ballroom CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2014; the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the Harry R. Glahn Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Eighth Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fifth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Third Annual Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling; the Special Symposium on the South Asia Monsoon; the Air Pollution Meteorology and Human Health Symposium; and the 15th Presidential Forum )
Program Chair: Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA
Moderator: Kimberly E. Klockow, NOAA
Keynote: Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA
Panelists: Bernadette Woods Placky, Climate Central; Mac Devine, IBM Cloud Services Division; Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA; Curtis L. Walker, University of Nebraska

Twenty five years hence, meteorology will be much different and expand far beyond the traditional weather forecast. Personal sensors will monitor weather nearly everywhere. Advanced computing will allow us to forecast at perhaps minute scales and kilometer resolutions, customized for each particular user. Post-mobile devices will enable instantaneous use of the information – even in remote areas of today’s developing nations. Transportation will be safer, businesses will operate more efficiently, events will automatically schedule around anticipated weather, and much more. Operational weather forecasts will be interlaced with new environmental elements that impact economic, health, energy, and security decisions. Many aspects of our daily lives will change forever. Climate change’s possibilities add a critical dimension to community resiliency. Should global weather patterns be altered, forecasting could become more challenging than today. The recent release of the fifth IPCC synthesis report has brought focus to this particular issue. Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA Administrator, will lead the session with a keynote on her vision for the meteorology enterprise in the year 2040. Following her keynote, the panelists - representing different demographics and perspectives - will then provide their vision, accompanied by a moderated discussion among the panelists.
  9:00 AM
William B (Bill) Gail: Introductory remarks
  9:08 AM
Kimberly E. Klockow: Moderator welcoming remarks
  9:16 AM
Dr. Kathryn Sullivan: AMS 2015 Annual Meeting Presidential Forum Keynote
  9:24 AM
Curtis Walker: Will Weather Change Forever – Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
  9:32 AM
Bernadette Woods Placky: Will Weather Change Forever? Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
  9:40 AM
Mac Devine: The Perfect Storm Intensifies - The Convergence of BigData, Cloud and the Internet of Things is Now at Full Strength

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
Assessing the Skill of Statistical Downscaling Techniques: Questioning Assumptions and Quantifying Value
Location: 124B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling; and the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence )
Cochairs: Michael E. Baldwin, Purdue University; Carlos Felipe Gaitan, University of Oklahoma/NOAA/GFDL
  1:30 PM
J1.1
Bias Correction of Simulated Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: Preserving Relative Changes in Quantiles and Extremes
Alex J. Cannon, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, Canada; and S. R. Sobie and T. Q. Murdock

  1:45 PM
J1.2
Verification of Probabilistic Downscaling
Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Lorenz and D. J. Vimont
  2:00 PM
J1.3
  2:15 PM
J1.4
Hyperlocal Downscaling using WRF: Science, Technology and Applications
Wallace Hogsett, Weather Analytics, Bethesda, MD; and S. Cecelski and R. Rogers

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 1
The Last Mile: Methods and Technologies for Delivering Custom Weather, Water, and Climate Information to Everyone in the World
Location: 124B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; and the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling )
Cochairs: V. Lakshmanan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma; Amy McGovern, Univ. of Oklahoma
  4:00 PM
TJ1.1
Scaling Machine Learning Models to Produce High Resolution Gridded Solar Power Forecasts
David John Gagne, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. E. Haupt, S. Linden, J. K. Williams, A. McGovern, G. Wiener, J. A. Lee, and T. C. McCandless
  4:15 PM
TJ1.2
Generation of Ensemble-Based Hazardous Weather Guidance Products from Rapidly Updating Models: The HRRR Convective Probabilistic Forecast (HCPF) and Related Post-Processing Work
Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, J. A. Hamilton, S. Benjamin, E. P. James, T. G. Smirnova, M. Hu, and I. Jankov
  4:30 PM
TJ1.3
Big Data is Critical for the Weather Ready Nation
Nancy Grady, SAIC, Oak Ridge, TN; and J. O. Olson and T. M. Anselmo
  4:45 PM
TJ1.4
  5:00 PM
TJ1.5
Weather for the Road: a Mobile Solution
Philipe Tissot, Texas A&M University, Corpus Christi, TX; and D. Stephen and D. Fonseca
  5:15 PM
TJ1.6
Cloud-Based Numerical Weather Prediction for Near Real-time Forecasting and Disaster Response
Andrew L. Molthan, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case, J. Venner, R. Schroeder, M. Checchi, B. T. Zavodsky, and R. O'Brien

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Reception and Exhibits Opening
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Tuesday, 6 January 2015

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Recording files available
Lecture 1
Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Presidential Forum; the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2014; the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the Harry R. Glahn Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling )
  11:00 AM
L1.1
Model Diagnoses of El Nino Teleconnections to the Global Atmosphere-Ocean System
Ngar-Cheung Lau, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China

Wednesday, 7 January 2015

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 1
Maximizing the Utility of Ensembles
Location: 123 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling
Cochairs: Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR
  8:30 AM
1.1
A Hybrid, Analog-NWP Ensemble
F. Anthony (Tony) Eckel, Microsoft, Bellevue, WA; and L. delle Monache
  9:30 AM
1.5
Producing a Synthesis Forecast and Uncertainty Estimation From Multiple, Disparate Forecast Products
Matthew S. Wandishin, NOAA/ESRL/Global Systems Division/CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Layne, M. A. Petty, and B. J. Etherton
  9:45 AM
1.6
Poster Introductions (Invited Presentation)
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. J. Etherton and S. Sellars

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Spouses' Coffee

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet the President
Location: 126A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 2
Statistical and Dynamical Downscaling
Location: 123 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling
Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL
  10:30 AM
2.1
Quantifying the value of quantile mapping methods using a perfect-model approach
Carlos Felipe Gaitan, University of Oklahoma/NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
 
Paper 2.3 has been moved. New poster number is 927.

  11:00 AM
2.3A
The Development of NAEFS Statistical Post-Processing System
Bo Cui, IMSG at EMC/NCEP, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and H. Guan

  11:15 AM
2.4A

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Lunch Break

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Daily Weather Briefings
Location: 132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Lecture 2
Horton Lecture
Location: 127ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Eighth Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling )
Chair: Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
Recording files available
Session 3
Post-Processing and Product Generation - Part 1
Location: 123 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling
Cochairs: Bob Glahn, NOAA/NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory ; Scott Sellars, Univ. of California
  1:30 PM
3.1
An Introduction to the National Blend of Global Models Project
Kathryn K. Gilbert, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and J. P. Craven, D. R. Novak, T. M. Hamill, J. Sieveking, D. P. Ruth, and S. J. Lord

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session
Model Postprocessing and Downscaling
Host: Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling
Cochairs: Barbara G. Brown, NCAR; Brian J. Etherton, NOAA/OAR/ESRL; Scott Sellars, Univ. of California
 
927
An approach for filling time gaps of dynamic climate downscaling
Yongqiang Liu, USDA Forest Service, Athens, GA; and H. Tian, B. Tao, and J. Yang

 
835
Tests with parameterization of convection in cases of intense rainfall in mountainous regions
Daniela Carneiro Rodrigues, INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil

 
836
Forecast Improvement of Locally Heavy Rainfall Events Through Diagnosis and Examination of Model Precipitation Climatologies
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

 
837
Mountain precipitation forecasts from operational ensembles
Trevor I. Alcott, NOAA/NWS, Salt Lake City, UT

 
839
A Robust Post-processing Algorithm Based on Bayesian Model Averaging
Hong Guan, Systems Research Group Inc./EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and B. Cui

 
840
An Investigation of the Spatiotemporal Variability of the Performance of Operational Global Ensemble Forecast Systems
Carlee F. Loeser, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and M. A. Herrera, B. Goudeau, and I. Szunyogh

 
842
Probabilistic Ensemble Forecasts of Turbulence for Aviation
Stephen R. Moseley, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and P. Buchanan and P. Gill

 
843
Using 2011-2014 SSEO Verification Metrics to Assess Uncertainty in Severe Weather Forecasts
Pamela Eck, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and J. Correia Jr.

 
846
Developing sub-domain verification methods based on GIS tools
Jeffrey Alan Smith, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, WSMR, NM; and T. A. Foley and J. W. Raby

 
847
Projected Precipitation Changes within the Great Lakes Region: A Multi-scale Analysis of Precipitation Intensity and Seasonality
Samantha Basile, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and A. Steiner, D. Brown, and A. Bryan

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 4
Post-Processing and Product Generation - Part 2
Location: 123 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling
Cochairs: Scott Sellars, Univ. of California; Barbara G. Brown, NCAR
  4:00 PM
4.1
A Sample Size Sensitivity Test for MOS Precipitation Type
Phillip E. Shafer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD
  4:15 PM
4.2
The Characteristics of GFS MOS Temperature Forecast Guidance Errors for the Past Decade
Yun Fan, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and K. K. Gilbert, D. E. Rudack, W. Yan, S. Scallion, and P. E. Shafer

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


95th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Thursday, 8 January 2015

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Lecture 3
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: 124A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2014; the 15th Presidential Forum; the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the Harry R. Glahn Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fifth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling; and the Air Pollution Meteorology and Human Health Symposium )
  11:00 AM
L3.1

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


AMS 95th Annual Meeting Adjourns