The New Turbulence Nowcast from Schneider Electric

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates an Award Winner
Tuesday, 6 January 2015: 2:30 PM
129A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Donald W. McCann, McCann Aviation Weather Research, Inc., Overland Park, KS; and D. W. Lennartson
Manuscript (347.0 kB)

Schneider Electric has implemented a new turbulence nowcast product for customers that need more tactical turbulence information. These customers include pilots in flight and dispatchers monitoring flights. Although these customers can view Schneider Electric turbulence forecasts for flight planning, these forecasts are purely model-based and do not take into account direct or indirect turbulence observations. The nowcast product's design analyzes turbulence observations from whatever sources are available and projects the resultant analysis one hour into the future. The nowcast's display is a spread of the EDR turbulence expected in the upcoming hour. The nowcast turbulence product is for North America or the Rapid Refresh numerical model domain. Schneider Electric has also implemented a worldwide product in some regions.

The product has three parts. 1) The first guess for non-convective turbulence is the RAP model forecast for clear air, mountain wave, and boundary layer turbulence valid within the one hour forecast window. 2) Convective turbulence starts with a grid of potential convective turbulence which is then masked with the total lightning data received in the previous 10 minutes. Then each grid point with lightning is forecast one hour creating a display of the turbulence for the upcoming hour. 3) Real time in situ EDR reports are assimilated into the combined non-convective/convective first guess adjusting the EDRs as necessary.

The nowcast product runs after the lightning data are processed…about every 10 minutes.