3.5
Drivers of hiatus periods: volcanic eruptions, decadal variability and aerosols
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An examination of climate model projections based on two future warming scenarios indicates that hiatus decades are strongly linked to enhanced equatorial Pacific cooling and the shift to a negative phase of the IPO. In addition synthetic volcanic eruptions can cause hiatus decades to occur. The likelihood of a hiatus occurring into the future is found to be dependent on the rate of change of anthropogenic forcing, with larger volcanic eruptions and stronger shifts to a negative IPO needed to cause a hiatus under greater rates of warming. We find that there is little chance of a hiatus occurring after 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario, even in the event of a large volcanic eruption.