Twenty five years hence, meteorology will be much different and expand far beyond the traditional weather forecast. Personal sensors will monitor weather nearly everywhere. Advanced computing will allow us to forecast at perhaps minute scales and kilometer resolutions, customized for each particular user. Post-mobile devices will enable instantaneous use of the information – even in remote areas of today’s developing nations. Transportation will be safer, businesses will operate more efficiently, events will automatically schedule around anticipated weather, and much more. Operational weather forecasts will be interlaced with new environmental elements that impact economic, health, energy, and security decisions. Many aspects of our daily lives will change forever. Climate change’s possibilities add a critical dimension to community resiliency. Should global weather patterns be altered, forecasting could become more challenging than today. The recent release of the fifth IPCC synthesis report has brought focus to this particular issue. Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA Administrator, will lead the session with a keynote on her vision for the meteorology enterprise in the year 2040. Following her keynote, the panelists - representing different demographics and perspectives - will then provide their vision, accompanied by a moderated discussion among the panelists.
William B (Bill) Gail: Introductory remarks
Kimberly E. Klockow: Moderator welcoming remarks
Dr. Kathryn Sullivan: AMS 2015 Annual Meeting Presidential Forum Keynote
Curtis Walker: Will Weather Change Forever – Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
Bernadette Woods Placky: Will Weather Change Forever? Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
Mac Devine: The Perfect Storm Intensifies - The Convergence of BigData, Cloud and the Internet of Things is Now at Full Strength
In May 2014, the third US National Climate Assessment was publicly released by the White House. Building on efforts such as the IPCC 5th Assessment, and previous National Climate Assessments, the 2014 NCA incorporates a broad scope of the best available science relevant to decision making at multiple scales. The NCA also included important transdisciplinary efforts bridging physical and social sciences, and the communications enterprise. This session will highlight the major scientific highlights of the 2014 NCA, the process as envisioned and executed, the “ongoing assessment” concept, and policy implications. Topics within the session are not limited to direct NCA contributions. Of particular interest are sector specific and regional climate information, methods and perspectives on science communication, the policy implications at multiple scales, and next steps. Contributions that connect IPCC and regional, state, or local assessment activities with the NCA are also encouraged.
The decade long International Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program ended twenty years ago in December 1994. TOGA fundamentally advanced our understanding of tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions and their global impacts, established a new observing system for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research and forecasting, and served as an incubator for the development of skillful seasonal prediction models. It paved the way for much subsequent progress in climate research and its legacy still resonates throughout the scientific community. This session will celebrate that legacy and pay tribute to two renowned scientists whose pioneering studies laid the foundation for TOGA and contributed greatly to its success: Gene Rasmusson and the late Klaus Wyrtki. Presentations are encouraged that highlight climate variability and change in the tropics, the global impacts of the tropics in the climate system, and advances in seasonal to decadal time scale climate forecasting. Presentations on evolving 2014 El Niño-like conditions are also encouraged.
Introduction - Mike McPhaden
The impacts of climate variability and change manifest in dramatically different ways. Coastal regions grapple with storm surge and sea level rise; urban areas endure heat waves that affect public health and safety; and forested regions with drought and wildfire. These impacts are overlaid on vastly different social, political, and economic systems, creating a patchwork of different risk and vulnerability profiles at sub-national scales. The breadth and depth of this challenge requires multiple partners with different expertise, collaborating across regional scales. This session invites papers that describe the importance and value of regional collaborations, challenges faced in coordination, examples of bridging science with decision making, and other co-production models. Papers that focus on particular engagements with NOAA RISA, DOI Climate Science Centers, USDA Regional Climate Hubs, State Climatologists, Sea Grant, and Regional Climate Centers are encouraged.
Themed Joint Session
With the potential for more frequent and more intense extreme events in parts of the world as a consequence of climate change, there is increasing focus on science in the context of minimizing risk and vulnerability. This session will showcase the scientific advances, impacts, and lessons learned through the lens of Western drought events. Topics of interest include predictability of US drought on multiple scales, climate change attribution of drought, lessons gleaned from the applied science community, planning and processes for drought, and cascading impacts of drought on both the ecological and urban environments. Papers addressing social and economic impacts are particularly encouraged. Note that papers do not have to directly relate to Western US drought, but can also discuss impacts and response to other extreme events in other parts of the US and the world from which transferable lessons might be shared.