27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change

Program Chairs: Sumant Nigam , University of Maryland ; Kristen Averyt , CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
Reviewers: Chris K. Folland , United Kingdom Meteorological Office ; Nat Johnson , NOAA/GFDL ; Hai Lin , EC ; Joel R. Norris , SIO/Univ. Of California ; Scott Power , Australia Bureau of Meteorology ; R. Saravanan , Texas A&M University ; David W. J. Thompson , Colorado State University ; Xuebin Zhang , EC ; Michael McPhadden , NOAA/PMEL ; Shang-Ping Xie , Univesity of California ; Michael Richman , CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma ; Lance Leslie , CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma ; Kevin Werner , NOAA ; Adam Parris , NOAA ; Emily Therese Cloyd , US Global Change Research Program

- Indicates paper has been withdrawn from meeting
- Indicates paper is an Award Winner

Saturday, 3 January 2015

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 3 January 2015


Registration for Student Conference and Short Courses
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Sunday, 4 January 2015

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Registration for Short Courses and Conference for Early Career Professionals
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

12:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


WeatherFest
Location: Hall 1 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:00 PM-4:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Newcomer’s Welcome and Informational Exchange
Location: 127ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


95th Annual Review, New Fellows, and Featured Awards
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

5:45 PM-8:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Fellows Reception
Location: North Ballroom Foyer (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Monday, 5 January 2015

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Registration Continues through January 7
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
15th Presidential Forum: Will Weather Change Forever—Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
Location: North Ballroom CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2014; the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the Harry R. Glahn Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Eighth Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fifth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Third Annual Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling; the Special Symposium on the South Asia Monsoon; the Air Pollution Meteorology and Human Health Symposium; and the 15th Presidential Forum )
Program Chair: Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA
Moderator: Kimberly E. Klockow, NOAA
Keynote: Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA
Panelists: Bernadette Woods Placky, Climate Central; Mac Devine, IBM Cloud Services Division; Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA; Curtis L. Walker, University of Nebraska

Twenty five years hence, meteorology will be much different and expand far beyond the traditional weather forecast. Personal sensors will monitor weather nearly everywhere. Advanced computing will allow us to forecast at perhaps minute scales and kilometer resolutions, customized for each particular user. Post-mobile devices will enable instantaneous use of the information – even in remote areas of today’s developing nations. Transportation will be safer, businesses will operate more efficiently, events will automatically schedule around anticipated weather, and much more. Operational weather forecasts will be interlaced with new environmental elements that impact economic, health, energy, and security decisions. Many aspects of our daily lives will change forever. Climate change’s possibilities add a critical dimension to community resiliency. Should global weather patterns be altered, forecasting could become more challenging than today. The recent release of the fifth IPCC synthesis report has brought focus to this particular issue. Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA Administrator, will lead the session with a keynote on her vision for the meteorology enterprise in the year 2040. Following her keynote, the panelists - representing different demographics and perspectives - will then provide their vision, accompanied by a moderated discussion among the panelists.
  9:00 AM
William B (Bill) Gail: Introductory remarks
  9:08 AM
Kimberly E. Klockow: Moderator welcoming remarks
  9:16 AM
Dr. Kathryn Sullivan: AMS 2015 Annual Meeting Presidential Forum Keynote
  9:24 AM
Curtis Walker: Will Weather Change Forever – Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
  9:32 AM
Bernadette Woods Placky: Will Weather Change Forever? Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
  9:40 AM
Mac Devine: The Perfect Storm Intensifies - The Convergence of BigData, Cloud and the Internet of Things is Now at Full Strength

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Spouses' Coffee

10:30 AM-11:00 AM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Coffee Break
Location: North Ballroom Foyer (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 1
Global Warming Hiatus-Part I
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Shang-Ping Xie, Univesity of California; Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/GFDL

Global average temperature has increased by 0.8oC over the 20th century but this warming trend has slowed or even stalled for the past 15 years. This warming hiatus has caused much confusion and debate but at the same time offers a scientific opportunity to study climate change dynamics in action. Mechanisms proposed include a slowdown in net radiative forcing, and interference by natural variability. This session showcases rapidly advancing research on the physical mechanisms and various impacts of this hiatus event. Topics of particular interest include interdecadal variability and the interaction with forced climate change, radiative forcing and related processes, and ocean heat storage as pertinent to the hiatus.
  11:15 AM
1.2
  11:45 AM
1.4
A Link Between the Hiatus in Global Warming and North American Drought
Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and F. Zeng, A. Rosati, G. Vecchi, and A. T. Wittenberg

Recording files available
Joint Session 1
The 2014 US National Climate Assessment: Science, Policy, and the Future-Part I
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice )
Cochairs: Emily Therese Cloyd, US Global Change Research Program; Kristen Averyt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

In May 2014, the third US National Climate Assessment was publicly released by the White House. Building on efforts such as the IPCC 5th Assessment, and previous National Climate Assessments, the 2014 NCA incorporates a broad scope of the best available science relevant to decision making at multiple scales. The NCA also included important transdisciplinary efforts bridging physical and social sciences, and the communications enterprise. This session will highlight the major scientific highlights of the 2014 NCA, the process as envisioned and executed, the “ongoing assessment” concept, and policy implications. Topics within the session are not limited to direct NCA contributions. Of particular interest are sector specific and regional climate information, methods and perspectives on science communication, the policy implications at multiple scales, and next steps. Contributions that connect IPCC and regional, state, or local assessment activities with the NCA are also encouraged.
  11:00 AM
J1.1

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Lunch Break

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Daily Weather Briefings
Location: 132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 2
Global Warming Hiatus-Part II
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Thomas L. Delworth, NOAA/GFDL; Shang-Ping Xie, Univesity of California
  1:30 PM
2.1
  1:45 PM
2.2
Projections of a rebound in warming out of the current hiatus
Matthew H. England, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  2:00 PM
2.3
Contribution of Natural Decadal Variability to Global-Warming Acceleration and Hiatus
Masahiro Watanabe, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba, Japan; and H. Shiogama, H. Tatebe, M. Hayashi, M. Ishii, and M. Kimoto

  2:15 PM
2.4
Tropical modulations of global mean temperature
Shang-Ping Xie, Univesity of California, La Jolla, CA; and C. Y. Wang

Recording files available
Joint Session 2
The 2014 US National Climate Assessment: Science, Policy, and the Future-Part II
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice )
Cochairs: Emily Therese Cloyd, US Global Change Research Program; Kristen Averyt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
  1:30 PM
J2.1
  1:45 PM
J2.2
The State of Adaptation and the Role of Climate Information (Invited Presentation)
Joel B. Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, CO; and R. Bierbaum and A. Lee
  2:00 PM
J2.3
Science-policy Challenges in Climate Assements
Hilda Joan Blanco, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA

  2:15 PM
J2.4
Science and Communication Issues Associated with Precipitation in the NCA
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 1
Global Warming Hiatus Posters
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Shang-Ping Xie, Univesity of California; Gerald Meehl, NCAR
 
Poster 53 has been moved. New paper number is 3.1A.

 
54
Monitoring Climate Signatures with High Spectral Resolution Infrared Satellite Measurements
Daniel H. DeSlover, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and R. Knuteson, D. C. Tobin, and H. Revercomb


Poster Session 2
Regional climate variability and change Posters
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
 
Poster 57 has moved. New paper number is 13A.1.

 
59
Attribution of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to External Forcing, Internal Variability and Weather Noise
Ioana Colfescu, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and E. K. Schneider

 
60
 
62
Examining Changes in North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones with Climate Change
Allison C. Michaelis, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. L. Cipullo, J. A. Willison, G. M. Lackmann, and W. A. Robinson

 
64
 
65
Changing Jet-Stream Waviness Assessed Using Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs)
Jennifer A. Francis, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ; and N. Skific, J. J. Cassano, and E. N. Cassano

Handout (7.5 MB)

 
66
Examination of Future Severe Convective Storms in the United States through High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling
Kimberly Hoogewind, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and M. E. Baldwin and R. J. Trapp

 
67
Dual Heuristics for Assessment of Hydrologic Sensitivities to Climate Change in Watersheds of the Lower Colorado Basin
Kevin W. Murphy, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ; and B. S. Murphy and A. W. Ellis

Handout (1.9 MB)

 
68
Climate Extremes in a High-Resolution Regional Model Ensemble over the Continental United States
Deeksha Rastogi, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and R. Mei and M. Ashfaq

 
69
Long-Term Internal Variability Effects on Centennial Dynamic Sea Level Projections
Mohammad Hadi Bordbar, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany; and T. Martin, M. Latif, and W. Park

 
70
Coupled regional climate simulations of the future precipitation climate of the Central Andes
Stephen D. Nicholls, NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Greenbelt, MD; and K. I. Mohr

 
71
Spectral Analysis of GCM Output using Digital Filtering Techniques
Farahnaz Taghavi, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran; and D. Yazgi and A. Neyestani

 
72
Multi-model Approach for Projecting Extremes Related to the Lack and Excess of Precipitation in Central/Eastern Europe
Rita Pongrácz, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and J. Bartholy and A. Kis
Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Handout (355.1 kB)

 
73
Variations of Broad-scale Asian summer monsoon circulation and possible causes
Zhiyan Zuo, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and S. Yang, R. Zhang, A. Kumar, and Y. Xue

 
75
Intensification of pre-monsoon tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and impacts from aerosols
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and B. M. Buckley and J. H. Yoon

 
77
Local vs. remote controls on forced Sahelian rainfall
Spencer A. Hill, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and Y. Ming

Handout (1.2 MB)

 
80
The Causes and Predictability of the 2014 Balkans Flooding
Yehui Chang, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert

 
81
 
84
Assessing Significance of Global Climate Change in Local Climate Time Series
Marina Timofeyeva, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and A. Bair, R. E. Livezey, A. Hollingshead, F. Horsfall, and J. C. Meyers

 
85
Adventures with November Snowfall: Time Series, Synoptic Classification, and Modeling of Snow Days in the Lake Michigan Region
Craig Clark, Valparaiso Univ., Valparaiso, IN; and A. Young, E. Delap, K. Heinlein, R. Connelly, A. Caruthers, A. VanDe Guchte, Z. Sefcovic, D. Koning, A. Carne, H. Boney, B. Ganesh-Babu, K. H. Goebbert, and S. Fingerle

 
89
A recent tornado outbreak under pseudo-global warming
Robert J. Trapp, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and K. Hoogewind, M. E. Baldwin, and S. Lasher-Trapp

 
90
Quantifying the Strength of Water Cycle Variations over the US
Xia Feng, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and P. Houser

 
91
Precipitation Organization in a Warmer Climate
Mark Nissenbaum, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC; and R. Ferreira and T. M. Rickenbach

 
95

4:00 PM-5:15 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Joint Session 3
The 2014 US National Climate Assessment: Science, Policy, and the Future-Part III
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice )
Cochairs: Emily Therese Cloyd, US Global Change Research Program; Kristen Averyt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado
  4:15 PM
J3.2
  4:30 PM
J3.3
  5:00 PM
J3.6

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 3
Global Warming Hiatus-Part III
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Gerald Meehl, NCAR; Matthew H. England, University of New South Wales
  4:15 PM
3.2
Varying Planetary Heat Sink Led to Global-Warming Slowdown and Acceleration
Ka-Kit Tung, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and X. Chen

  4:45 PM
3.4
Decadal Variability of Clouds and its Contributions to Global Warming Hiatus
Hui Su, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and J. Jiang, T. P. J. Shen, and Y. Yung
  5:00 PM
3.5
Drivers of hiatus periods: volcanic eruptions, decadal variability and aerosols
Nicola Maher, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia; and A. Sen Gupta, M. H. England, and S. McGregor
  5:15 PM
3.6
Role of Stratospheric Water Vapor in Global Warming from GCM Simulations Constrained by MLS Observation
Yuan Wang, California Institute of Technology/JPL, Pasadena, CA; and H. Su, J. Jiang, N. Livesey, M. L. Santee, and P. C. Stek

5:30 PM-7:30 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Reception and Exhibits Opening
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Tuesday, 6 January 2015

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 4A
Arctic circulation and sea-ice variability and trends: Structure and mechanisms
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Jim Carton, University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science
  8:30 AM
4A.1
How reasonable is the Arctic/subArctic ocean in historical CMIP5 simulations?
Yanni Ding, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Carton, G. Chepurin, S. Hakkinen, and M. Steele
Manuscript (661.7 kB)

  9:00 AM
4A.3
A history of Western Arctic sea ice extent: A tale of two ice cores
Stacy E. Porter, Byrd Polar Research Center, Columbus, OH; and E. Mosley-Thompson and L. G. Thompson
  9:15 AM
4A.4
Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in the recent past
Masato Mori, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba, Japan; and M. Watanabe, H. Shiogama, J. Inoue, and M. Kimoto

  9:30 AM
4A.5
Recording files available
Session 4B
Rasmusson-Wyrtki session on ENSO, Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions, and Global Climatic Impacts: 20 Years after TOGA-Part I
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Michael McPhadden, NOAA/PMEL

The decade long International Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program ended twenty years ago in December 1994. TOGA fundamentally advanced our understanding of tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions and their global impacts, established a new observing system for El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) research and forecasting, and served as an incubator for the development of skillful seasonal prediction models. It paved the way for much subsequent progress in climate research and its legacy still resonates throughout the scientific community. This session will celebrate that legacy and pay tribute to two renowned scientists whose pioneering studies laid the foundation for TOGA and contributed greatly to its success: Gene Rasmusson and the late Klaus Wyrtki. Presentations are encouraged that highlight climate variability and change in the tropics, the global impacts of the tropics in the climate system, and advances in seasonal to decadal time scale climate forecasting. Presentations on evolving 2014 El Niño-like conditions are also encouraged.
  8:30 AM
Introduction - Mike McPhaden

  8:45 AM
4B.1
Milestones on the Road toTOGA
Eugene M. Rasmusson, University of Maryland, College Park, MD

  9:30 AM
4B.3
ENSO-like Variability 1900-2013
John M. Wallace, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and X. Chen

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015


Spouses' Coffee

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Joint Poster Session 2
Regional Climate Partnerships: Connecting Climate Science and Decision Making Posters
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice )
 
96
Climate webinars as a platform for supporting extended networks in Alaska
Nathan Kettle, Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, Fairbanks, AK; and S. F. Trainor

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Recording files available
Lecture 1
Bernhard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 15th Presidential Forum; the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2014; the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the Harry R. Glahn Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling )
  11:00 AM
L1.1
Model Diagnoses of El Nino Teleconnections to the Global Atmosphere-Ocean System
Ngar-Cheung Lau, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
Recording files available
Joint Session 7
Regional Climate Partnerships: Connecting Climate Science and Decision Making-Part I
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice )
Cochairs: Kevin Werner, NOAA; Adam Parris, NOAA

The impacts of climate variability and change manifest in dramatically different ways. Coastal regions grapple with storm surge and sea level rise; urban areas endure heat waves that affect public health and safety; and forested regions with drought and wildfire. These impacts are overlaid on vastly different social, political, and economic systems, creating a patchwork of different risk and vulnerability profiles at sub-national scales. The breadth and depth of this challenge requires multiple partners with different expertise, collaborating across regional scales. This session invites papers that describe the importance and value of regional collaborations, challenges faced in coordination, examples of bridging science with decision making, and other co-production models. Papers that focus on particular engagements with NOAA RISA, DOI Climate Science Centers, USDA Regional Climate Hubs, State Climatologists, Sea Grant, and Regional Climate Centers are encouraged.
  11:00 AM
J7.1
Building Stakeholder Partnerships: Putting Science Into Practice
Mark A. Shafer, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK
  11:15 AM
J7.2
Climate Training Workshops for Native American Tribes
Alek Krautmann, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and R. Riley, A. Taylor, and M. A. Shafer

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015


Lunch Break

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015


Daily Weather Briefings
Location: 132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 5
Rasmusson-Wyrtki session on ENSO, Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions, and Global Climatic Impacts: 20 Years after TOGA-Part II
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Clara Deser, NCAR
  1:30 PM
5.1
A nonlinear framework for advancing our understanding of ENSO in climate models
Pedro N. DiNezio, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

  2:00 PM
5.3
Progresses Since TOGA in Understanding El Niño Dynamics
Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

  2:15 PM
5.4
The Curious Case of the El Niño That Never Happened: A perspective from 40 years of progress in climate research and forecasting
Michael McPhaden, NOAA/ERL/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA; and A. Timmermann, M. J. Widlansky, M. A. Balmaseda, and T. N. Stockdale
  2:30 PM
5.5
Identifying unpredictable components of El Niño
Cécile Penland, NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO
Recording files available
Joint Session 8
Do Climate Services Make a Difference? Evaluating the Development and Provision of Climate Information
Location: 226C (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; and the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change )
Chair: Zack S. Guido, University of Arizona

This session focuses on efforts that have evaluated how climate services have influenced resource management, policy, or other decision contexts. Presentations can highlight useful metrics and effective research design for evaluating climate services as well as documented outcomes of climate service activities. Presentations for work that evaluates the outcomes of a program or policy.
  2:30 PM
J8.5
CCAFS' Innovative Tool Measure the Value of Climate Services for Farmers
Alexa Jay, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Palisades, NY; and A. Tall

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet the President
Location: 126A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:30 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Recording files available
Joint Session 10
Regional Climate Partnerships: Connecting Climate Science and Decision Making-Part II
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice )
Cochairs: Kevin Werner, NOAA; Adam Parris, NOAA
  3:30 PM
J10.1
Midwestern Regional Climate Center: Building partnerships across sectors
Beth L. Hall, Illinois State Water Survey/Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Champaign, IL; and M. S. Timlin
  4:45 PM
Panel Discussion

3:30 PM-5:45 PM: Tuesday, 6 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 6
Rasmusson-Wyrtki session on ENSO, Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions, and Global Climatic Impacts: 20 Years after TOGA-Part III
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Stephen E. Zebiak, International Research Institute for climate prediction, Columbia University
  3:30 PM
6.1
  3:45 PM
6.2
  4:00 PM
6.3
  4:15 PM
6.4
Transition characteristics and predictability of ENSO diversity
Chen Chen, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and M. Cane, A. T. Wittenberg, and D. Chen
  4:30 PM
6.5
Influence of Two Types of El Niños on the East Asian Climate During Boreal Summer: A Numerical Study
Zhiping Wen, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China; and Z. Chen, R. Wu, P. Zhao, and J. Cao
  5:30 PM
6.9
Why is 2014 El Niño not a super El Niño?
Li-Ciao Hong, Research Center for Environmental Change, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. Lin and F. F. Jin

Wednesday, 7 January 2015

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 7A
Regional climate variability and change: Detection and attribution of temperature and precipitation variations: Role of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, and multidecadal natural variability; high-resolution regional climate projections
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: David W. J. Thompson, Colorado State University
  8:30 AM
7A.1
Sinuosity: A robust measure of mid-tropospheric waviness
Jonathan E. Martin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and S. Vavrus, F. Wang, and J. A. Francis
  8:45 AM
7A.2
  9:00 AM
7A.3
Free and Forced Changes of the Surface Atmospheric Circulation and Storminess Extremes over the last 140 years
Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and G. P. Compo, C. Penland, and C. McColl

  9:15 AM
7A.4
Forced and Natural North Atlantic SST Impacts on U.S. Hydroclimate in Observations and CMIP5 Models
Mingfang Ting, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory/Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and C. Li, B. Cook, and Y. Kushnir
  9:45 AM
7A.6
Estimating the role of natural variability in climate change using observations
David W. J. Thompson, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes, C. Deser, and W. E. Foust

Recording files available
Session 7B
The Peter J. Lamb Session on Climate Variability in Precipitation Processes-Part I
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Michael Richman, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma; Lance Leslie, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma

This session is dedicated to Dr. Peter J. Lamb. Because Dr. Lamb's interests encompassed a wide scope of precipitation processes studies from around the globe, research concerned with precipitation variability from any geographical region or location are welcome. Targeted presentations can be observational, modeling, or a combination of either related to precipitation processes, at time scales spanning the continuum of weather to climate.
  8:30 AM
7B.1
Ensemble-Based Empirical Prediction of Ethiopian Monthly-to-Seasonal Monsoon Rainfall
Zewdu Segele, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Richman, L. Leslie, and P. J. Lamb
  9:00 AM
7B.3
Case Studies of Intense Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Philippines
Irenea L. Corporal-Lodangco, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and L. Leslie and M. Richman

  9:30 AM
7B.5
A New Approach to Extract Monthly High Resolution Information for Precipitation from GCM Scenarios and Predictions
M. Neil Ward, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna, Italy; and S. Materia, S. Gualdi, and A. Navarra

9:00 AM-11:00 AM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Spouses' Coffee

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet the President
Location: 126A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 8A
  10:30 AM
8A.1
Changes in the global divergent overturning circulation, including the Hadley and Walker Circulations
Gilbert P. Compo, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado and Physical Sciences Division/ESRL/NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. D. Sardeshmukh

  10:45 AM
8A.2
Does External Forcing Interfere with the AMOC's influence on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature?
Neil F. Tandon, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; and P. J. Kushner
  11:00 AM
8A.3
Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Northern Hemisphere Climate in winter
Gudrun Magnusdottir, Univ. of California, Irvine, CA; and Y. Peings

  11:15 AM
8A.4
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO; and M. Alexander, T. Ault, K. M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, N. J. Mantua, A. J. Miller, S. Minobe, H. Nakamura, N. Schneider, and D. J. Vimont
  11:30 AM
8A.5
  11:45 AM
8A.6
Exploring Pacific climate variations and their impacts on East African Water Resources and Food Security
Chris C. Funk, USGS/Earth Resources Observation Systems, Santa Barbara, CA; and M. Hoerling, A. Hoell, B. Liebmann, J. Verdin, and G. eilerts
Recording files available
Session 8B
The Peter J. Lamb Session on Climate Variability in Precipitation Processes-Part II
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Michael Richman, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma; Lance Leslie, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma
  10:30 AM
8B.1

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Lunch Break

Women in the Atmospheric Sciences Luncheon
Location: 213AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Daily Weather Briefings
Location: 132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-2:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Lecture 2
Horton Lecture
Location: 127ABC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Eighth Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; and the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling )
Chair: Michael B. Ek, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
Recording files available
Session 9A
Extreme events: Analysis of heat waves and polar air outbreaks—Part I
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Nat Johnson, NOAA/GFDL
  2:00 PM
9A.3
Remote Influences of Atmospheric and Oceanic Variability on Heat Waves and Cold Spells in a Regional Climate Model
Tarun Verma, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. M. Patricola, J. S. Hsieh, R. Saravanan, and P. Chang
  2:15 PM
9A.4
Recording files available
Session 9B
  1:30 PM
9B.1
Statistical-dynamical seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones affecting New York State
Edmund K. M. Chang, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and H. M. Kim
  1:45 PM
9B.2
Impacts of Extratropical Wave Breaking on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. Zhang

  2:00 PM
9B.3A
Distribution and variability of CAPE over the tropical oceans
Kimberly M. Wood, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie
  2:15 PM
9B.4
How do meridional modes structure and growth depend on mean state asymmetry?
Cristian Martinez-Villalobos, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and D. J. Vimont

2:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 4
Decadal-Multidecadal variability in Pacific and Atlantic basins Posters
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
 
533
Interannual to Multi-Decadal Variability of Indo-Pacific SST
Joanna M. Slawinska, Center for Prototype Climate Modeling, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates; and D. Giannakis

 
534
Climatic Significance of Multi-Decade Oscillations of the Upper Ocean Heat Content
Mikhail Vladimirovich Anisimov, P.P.Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS, Moscow, Russia; and V. I. Byshev, A. V. Gusev, A. L. Figurkin, S. N. Moshonkin, V. G. Neiman, I. V. Serykh, and V. B. Zalesny

 
536
Long Term Increase In Fog Occurrence Over The NW Pacific And NW Atlantic Fog Maximums
Clive E. Dorman, SIO/Univ. Of California, La Jolla, CA; and J. Mejia, D. Koracin, and D. McEvoy

 
537
North Pacific decadal variability: insights from a biennial ENSO environment
Deepthi Achuthavarier, USRA, Greenbelt, MD; and S. D. Schubert and Y. Vikhliaev

 
541
The effect of changes in the Hadley circulation on oxygen minimum zones in the ocean
Gabriela De La Cruz Tello, Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science, San Jose, CA; and C. C. Ummenhofer and K. B. Karnauskas


Poster Session 5
Extreme Events Posters
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
 
542
Fire and Ice: California drought, Polar Vortex, and climate change
Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang, Utah State University, Logan, UT; and L. E. Hipps, R. Gillies, and J. H. Yoon

 
543
 
544
Spatial patterns of record-setting temperatures
Alex B. Kostinski, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI; and A. Anderson

 
545
Historical perspective on recent heat and cold extremes
Kenneth E. Kunkel, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC

 
546
Temperature Extremes and Associated Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns in NARCCAP Regional Climate Models: Towards a framework for generalized model evaluation
Paul C. Loikith, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, H. Lee, J. D. Neelin, J. Kim, B. R. Lintner, S. A. McGinnis, and L. O. Mearns

 
547
A Wind Chill Climatology of North America: Decadal and Regional Trends
Macy E. Howarth, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and M. Brackett and N. F. Laird

 
Paper 550 has been moved. New paper number is 10A.3.

 
551
A Climatological Study of Cold Surges along the African Highlands
Caitlin Crossett, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and N. D. Metz

 
552
Case Studies of Cold Surges along the African Highlands
Nicholas D. Metz, Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY; and C. Crossett

 
919
Fire, drought, and El Nino: California in a warming world
Jin-Ho Yoon, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. Y. Wang, R. Gillies, L. E. Hipps, B. Kravitz, and P. Rasch


Poster Session 6
Interannual variability Posters
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
 
553
Diagnostic Evaluation of NMME Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts for the Continental United States
Gregory S. Karlovits, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA; and G. Villarini, A. Bradley, and G. Vecchi

 
554
Enhanced Seasonal Predictability of the Arctic Oscillation and the Role of the Sea Surface Temperature Forcing
Daehyun Kang, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan, South Korea; and M. I. Lee

 
555
Interannual Variability of the Atlantic Hadley Circulation and Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Activity
Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang, M. Peng, J. H. Chen, and S. J. Lin

 
556
Top-of-atmosphere Radiation Budget and Global Mean Sea Surface Temperature
Shoichi Taguchi, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Japan

Handout (2.4 MB)

 
559
Influence of cloud radiative effects on the large-scale climate variability in the extratropics
Ying Li, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. W. J. Thompson


Poster Session 7
Subseasonal Variability Posters
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
 
561
Understanding Surface Variable Responses to the MJO in the CFS Reanalysis over the Americas
Michael Natoli, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery and E. J. Becker

 
562
 
565
A study of intraseasonal oscillations through mechanistic experiments in CAM4.0
Abheera Hazra, Earth Research Institute, Santa Barbara, CA; and V. Krishnamurthy and C. Jones

 
566
Changes to the intrinsic predictability of weather under extreme climate change
Justin G. McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds and E. A. Satterfield

 
567
An Update of Cluster Analysis of the Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Regimes
Ming Bao, Nanjing Univeristy, Nanjing, China; and J. M. Wallace

 
568
On the relation between North American winter precipitation and storm tracks
Katherine E. Lukens, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and E. H. Berbery

 
569
Investigating the Performance of an Ensemble Prediction System in a Changing Climate
Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. McLay and C. A. Reynolds

 
571
Relationship between the ISO and the East Asian summer monsoon circulation patterns
Ken-Chung Ko, National Kaohsiung Normal Univ., Kaohsiung, Taiwan; and P. S. Chiu

 
573
Progress with FIM-iHYCOM coupled model toward improved stationary wave and blocking prediction at 1–9 months
Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and S. Sun, R. Bleck, L. Li, J. Brown, and H. Li

 
574
A NARR-Derived Climatology of Southerly and Northerly Low-Level Jets over North America and Coastal Environs
Dana L. Doubler, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI; and J. A. Winkler, X. Bian, S. Zhong, and C. K. Walters

4:00 PM-4:45 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 10A
Extreme events: Analysis of heat waves and polar air outbreaks—Part II
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Nat Johnson, NOAA/GFDL
  4:00 PM
10A.1
  4:15 PM
10A.2
Changes in Pacific Northwest Heat Waves under Anthropogenic Global Warming
Matthew C. Brewer, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass
  4:30 PM
10A.3

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015

Recording files available
Themed Joint Session 6
Growing Importance of Extremes: The Example of Drought in California and the West
Location: 126BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; and the 29th Conference on Hydrology )
Cochairs: Veva Deheza, National Integrated Drought Information System; Kristen Averyt, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

With the potential for more frequent and more intense extreme events in parts of the world as a consequence of climate change, there is increasing focus on science in the context of minimizing risk and vulnerability. This session will showcase the scientific advances, impacts, and lessons learned through the lens of Western drought events. Topics of interest include predictability of US drought on multiple scales, climate change attribution of drought, lessons gleaned from the applied science community, planning and processes for drought, and cascading impacts of drought on both the ecological and urban environments. Papers addressing social and economic impacts are particularly encouraged. Note that papers do not have to directly relate to Western US drought, but can also discuss impacts and response to other extreme events in other parts of the US and the world from which transferable lessons might be shared.
  4:00 PM
TJ6.1
  4:15 PM
TJ6.2
CalWater 2—Precipitation, Aerosols, and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers Experiment
F. Martin Ralph, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and J. R. Spackman, K. A. Prather, D. Cayan, P. J. DeMott, M. D. Dettinger, C. W. Fairall, L. R. Leung, D. Rosenfeld, S. Rutledge, D. Waliser, and A. White
  4:30 PM
TJ6.3
  4:45 PM
TJ6.4
Improving the Utility of Seasonal Outlooks of Anomalous Precipitation for California
Lance E. Watkins, NASA DEVELOP National Program, Hampton, VA; and E. J. Davis, A. Nothdurft, and A. Mendenhall

  5:15 PM
TJ6.6
The National Extreme Events Data and Research Center (NEED)
Dale Kaiser, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and T. Wilbanks, T. Boden, R. Devarakonda, and J. Gulledge
Recording files available
Session 10B
Interannual variability: Inter-basin links; internally-generated vs. externally-forced basin variability; ocean-atmosphere structure and mechanisms in observations and climate simulations; progress prospects of monthly-to-seasonal prediction-Part II
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: R. Saravanan, Texas A&M University
  4:00 PM
10.1
Periodic variability in the large-scale middle latitude atmosphere
David W. J. Thompson, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and E. A. Barnes and Y. Li

  4:15 PM
10.2
On the diabatic heating of the North Atlantic storm-track
Rhys Parfitt, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; and A. Czaja

5:30 PM-6:30 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


Awards Banquet Reception in the Exhibit Hall
Location: Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

7:00 PM-10:00 PM: Wednesday, 7 January 2015


95th AMS Awards Banquet
Location: North Ballroom (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Thursday, 8 January 2015

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 8 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 11A
Advances in climate modeling and prediction-Part I
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Yi Ming, GFDL
  8:30 AM
11A.1
Possible Aerosol Impacts on Tropical Cyclones
Yi Ming, GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin

  8:45 AM
11A.2
Projected 21st century changes in the length of the tropical storm season in downscaled simulations and HIRAM
John G. Dwyer, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, M. Biasutti, K. A. Emanuel, M. Zhao, and G. Vecchi
  9:00 AM
11A.3
Global Projections of Intense Tropical Cyclone Activity for the Late 21st Century from Dynamical Downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios
Thomas R. Knutson, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and J. J. Sirutis, M. Zhao, R. E. Tuleya, M. A. Bender, and G. Villarini
  9:15 AM
11A.4
Global High-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Simulations: Climate Impacts and Model Sensitivities
Kevin A. Reed, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Bacmeister, C. Hannay, M. Wehner, P. Lauritzen, and J. Truesdale
  9:30 AM
11A.5
Tropical Temperature Trends in AMIP Simulations and the Impact of SST Uncertainties
Stephan Fueglistaler, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. Flannaghan, I. M. Held, S. Po-Chedley, B. Wyman, and M. Zhao

8:30 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 8 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 11B
Subseasonal variability: Spatiotemporal structure in the troposphere (and stratosphere); link with teleconnection patterns and MJO; dynamical and thermodynamic mechanisms; hydroclimate impacts; potential predictability; representation in climate simulations-Part I
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Cochairs: Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA/CPC; Andrew Hoell, University of California
  8:30 AM
11B.1A
Intraseasonal teleconnections between South America and South Africa
Alice M. Grimm, Federal University, Curitiba, Brazil; and C. Reason

  8:45 AM
11B.2
Impacts of variability and projected change in midlatitude storm tracks on the hydroclimate of the U.S. Southwest during winter
Edmund K. M. Chang, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and C. Zheng, P. Lanigan, A. M. W. Yau, and J. D. Neelin

  9:15 AM
11B.4
Tropically forced tapping of potential energy by planetary scale waves and the subsequent Arctic warming
Cory Francis Baggett, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and S. Lee
  9:30 AM
11B.5

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 9
Advances in climate modeling and prediction Posters
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
 
581
The General Circulation of the Atmosphere and Climate Changes
Vladimir Krupchatnikov, Siberian Research Hydrometeorology Institute, Novosibirsk, Russia; and Y. Martynova, I. Borovko, and T. Shulgina

 
582
Convective and Stratiform Precipitation Characteristics in an Ensemble of Regional Climate Model Simulations
Jan Kysely, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Prague, Czech Republic; and Z. Rulfova, A. Farda, and M. Hanel

 
Poster 583 has been moved. New paper number is 12A.2A.

 
584
Diagnosing Factors Influencing AMOC Decline in Climate Models
Abigail Lauren Ahlert, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Winton

 
585
Toward Understanding Climatic Influences on Cold-Season Tornado Events
Samuel J. Childs, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and S. Weaver

Handout (1.9 MB)

 
586
The SWAP, a day-to-day monitoring tool for drought (as well as flood)
Er Lu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and W. Cai, Z. Jiang, and Q. Zhang

 
587
Quantification of the Anthropogenic Contribution to Global Warming
Austin Hope, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and T. Canty, N. Mascioli, and R. J. Salawitch

 
Poster 588 has been moved. New paper number is 9B.3A.

 
589
The seasonal predictability induced by the transient eddies
Chihiro Matsukawa, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan; and Y. Takaya and S. Maeda

 
590
Uncertainty quantification of daily precipitation extremes
Michael F. Wehner, LBNL, Berkeley, CA; and P. Pall, M. Duffy, D. Stone, C. Paciorek, and W. D. Collins

 
591
Regional Climate Model Experiment Using RegCM Subgridding Options in the Framework of Med-CORDEX
Judit Bartholy, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; and R. Pongracz, I. Pieczka, F. D. Kelemen, A. Kis, and K. Andre
Manuscript (1.4 MB)

Handout (789.6 kB)

 
592
Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS5 Model
Young-Kwon Lim, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Schubert, O. Reale, M. I. Lee, A. Molod, and M. J. Suarez

 
593
Decadal and Long-Term U.S. Trends of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature Using CMIP5 Hindcast Data
Steve T. Stegall, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Asheville, NC; and K. E. Kunkel

 
595
Quantifying the climatological environmental influence on tropical cyclone intensity
Sarah Strazzo, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Elsner and T. H. Jagger

 
596
Response of Summer Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin to the Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies: A Simulation Study with CAM3
Hui Li, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology/Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Nanjing, China; and E. Lu, P. Zhai, S. Zhou, and Y. Wang

 
597

Poster Session 10
General Topics in Climate Variability and Change
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
 
598
Industry scale application of solar panels and global climate
Aixue Hu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Levis, G. Meehl, W. Han, W. M. Washington, K. Oleson, and G. Strand

 
599
What is New in Version 2 of the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive?
Imke Durre, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and X. Yin, S. Applequist, R. S. Vose, and J. D. Arnfield

 
602
Towards the Understanding and Development of an Urban-influenced Climate Framework
Bradford Johnson, University of Georgia, Athens, GA; and J. M. Shepherd

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Lecture 3
Walter Orr Roberts Lecture
Location: 124A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2014; the 15th Presidential Forum; the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the Harry R. Glahn Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fifth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling; and the Air Pollution Meteorology and Human Health Symposium )
  11:00 AM
L3.1
Recording files available
Session 12B
Regional climate variability and change: Detection and attribution of temperature and precipitation variations: Role of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, and multidecadal natural variability; high-resolution regional climate projections-Part II
Location: 122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Massimo A. Bollasina, University of Edinburgh
  11:15 AM
12B.2
  11:30 AM
12B.3
The Regional Climate Response to Absorption-Driven Solar Dimming over East Asia
Geeta G. Persad, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and Y. Ming, D. Paynter, and V. Ramaswamy

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Lunch Break

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Daily Weather Briefings
Location: 132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 13A
Advances in climate modeling and prediction-Part III
Location: 121BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change
Chair: Christopher Castro, University or Arizona
  1:45 PM
13A.2
Implementation and testing of variable soil depth in the global land surface model CLM4.5
Michael A. Brunke, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and P. D. Broxton, J. Pelletier, D. J. Gochis, P. Hazenberg, D. M. Lawrence, G. Y. Niu, P. A. Troch, and X. Zeng
  2:00 PM
13A.3
  2:15 PM
13A.4
Stratospheric vs. tropospheric effects on circulation changes in a simple GCM
Martin Jucker, New York University, New York, NY; and C. W. Cairns and G. K. Vallis

  2:30 PM
13A.5
The relationship between ENSO variability and the mean state: results from the paleoclimate simulations
Weipeng Zheng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing, China; and L. Chen and Y. Q. Yu

  2:45 PM
13A.6
Urban effects on the North American monsoon precipitation of 2002–2010: a study within the context of severe weather events
Thang Luong, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and C. Castro, S. Grossman-Clarke, M. Jares, H. I. Chang, and C. M. Carrillo

Recording files available
Session 13B
  1:30 PM
13B.1
  2:00 PM
13B.3

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet the President
Location: 126A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 14
  3:45 PM
14.2
The Future of Malawi's Growing Season
Edward K. Vizy, University of Texas, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook, J. Chimphamba, and B. McCusker
  4:00 PM
14.3
Attribution of trends in rising nighttime temperatures in the Western US
Roberto J. Mera, Union of Concerned Scientists, Washington, DC; and D. Rupp, P. W. Mote, and M. R. Allen
  4:15 PM
14.4
End-of-century projections of North American atmospheric river events in CMIP5 climate models
Michael Warner, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and C. F. Mass and E. Salathe
  4:30 PM
14.5
Pattern of climate response to CO2, sulfate and black carbon in CESM1
Yangyang Xu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and S. P. Xie, J. F. Lamarque, and W. M. Washington

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


AMS 95th Annual Meeting Adjourns