Distribution and variability of CAPE over the tropical oceans
Due to their consistent temporal and spatial coverage over decadal time scales, global reanalysis datasets offer a means to explore global CAPE patterns, regional variability in CAPE within TC basins, and changes and variations over time that may be related to natural climate oscillations or climate change. This study uses pre-calculated CAPE from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and calculated CAPE from the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) to investigate relationships between CAPE and other environmental variables, such as sea surface temperature and vertical wind shear, indices representing established patterns such as the El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), as well as seasonal and multidecadal TC activity. Results describing statistical correlations, dominant spatial patterns, and temporal shifts by basin and from a global perspective using monthly CAPE data will be presented. Relationships between 6-hourly CAPE and periods of TC intensity change will also be discussed.