Low-frequency variability in the hydrological cycle: implications for detection and attribution of climate change
This study attempts to identify the low-frequency variability and quantify its contribution to the total variability of precipitation on a global and regional scale. Consequently, the effect of natural variability on detection and attribution of anthropogenic change is analysed. To identify decadal/multi-decadal time-scale variability, we analyse thermal and hydrological variables provided by the long control run of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM3 model. Derived fingerprints are used to verify whether long-term natural variability can significantly contribute to the simulated and observed precipitation records and whether they are separable from the response to the anthropogenic forcing.