The impact of the initial flow on the extratropical response to Madden Julian Oscillation convective heating
A similar study is carried out using observational data. An analog approach—using projections to determine the analogs—is used to approximate the part of the flow that results from the MJO heating. The composite initial flow that corresponds to a large MJO response in observational data somewhat matches that in the model, though there is more variability between phases. Finally, the analog method is used to examine questions related to predictability and the MJO. It is found that predictability is improved by taking into account the presence of the MJO and by choosing analogs with high projections. The presence of an active MJO also increases predictability.