The Recent Surface Global Warming Hiatus: The Role of Internal Forcing beyond the Tropical Pacific

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Monday, 5 January 2015: 11:30 AM
122BC (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Clara Deser, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Fan

Internal decadal variability of the Tropical Pacific Ocean has been implicated as a leading cause for the recent slowdown in surface global warming. Here we revisit this issue using a large ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model, a state-of-the-art global coupled climate model. In agreement with previous studies, we find a role for intrinsic variability of the eastern Tropical Pacific in the global warming hiatus. However, internal variability of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is equally important and can offset the influence from the tropical Pacific, complicating attribution of the observed hiatus.