Progresses Since TOGA in Understanding El Niño Dynamics

Following the seminal work of documentations of El Nino's nature by pioneers as G. Rasmussen and K. Wyrtki, the TOGA decade witnessed concurrent advances in ENSO theory and ENSO observation, modeling and prediction. Two decades since TOGA, significant further progresses have been made in understanding the basic dynamics of the ENSO phenomenon. The advances have led to a better understanding of rich behaviors of ENSO. This talk is aimed to briefly review some of the advances by focusing on progresses in understanding ENSO dynamics in terms of (I) linear dynamics of ENSO modes, (ii) nonlinear dynamics, particularly the ENSO and annual cycle nonlinear interaction, (iii) ENSO's interactions with “noise” forcing. Discussions on the remaining challenges of understanding the dynamics of ENSO complexity will be also addressed.