Short and long term mineral dust aerosols simulations and its linkage to Meningitis in Senegal

Hyper-endemic levels and occasional epidemic levels of Meningitis are found during the Northern hemisphere winter and spring seasons across Northern Sub-Saharan Africa. Several factors may important for determining whether hyper-endemic or epidemic levels occur within a country: health care system, susceptibility of individuals, socio-economic status and the environment. The Meningitis belt is located to the south of the Sahara and has a large number of cases each year, where all factors are thought to be important. In this presentation we examine the variability of aerosols using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (REGCM4) and the WRF-CHEM model for two periods: 1993-2013 and 2012 and 2013. Daily, weekly and monthly dust concentrations are examined and compared to reported cases of meningitis cases in Senegal. Preliminary results are in agreement with recent studies, which suggest that dust particle concentrations are strongly related to meningitis cases. The dust concentrations in the REGCM4 are compared to WRF-CHEM and observations of PM 2.5 and PM10 in Senegal