Analysis of New York City traffic data, land use, emissions and high resolution local meteorology for the prediction of neighborhood scale intra-urban PM2.5 and O3

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Monday, 5 January 2015: 4:30 PM
228AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Chowdhury Nazmi, NOAA/CREST/City College, New York, NY; and N. Malakar, L. Cordero, and B. Gross

Air pollution affects the health and well-being of residents of mega cities like New York. Predicting the air pollutant concentration throughout the city can be difficult because the sources and levels of the pollutants can vary from season to season. Local meteorology, traffic and land use also play an important role in these variations and the use of statistical machine learning tools such as Neural Networks can be very useful. In order to develop a Neural Network for the prediction of intra-urban air pollutants (PM2.5, O3), high resolution local data are collected and analyzed. Surface level high resolution temperature, relative humidity and wind speed data are collected from the CCNY METNET network. Annual average daily traffic data from NYMTC model as well as continuous and short count traffic data are collected from NYSDOT. High density data from NYC Community Air Survey model is used to analyze the relationship between background and street level indicators for PM2.5 and O3. All the variables (meteorology, population, traffic, land use etc) are ranked according to the absolute strength of their correlation with the measured pollutants and highest ranking variables are identified to be used for the development of a Neural Network. An analysis of how street level pollution differs from background AIRNow observations will be made showing the importance of high density observations. The potential to use the model in other urban areas will also be explored.