Downscaled Ensemble Reforecasts of Extreme Rainfall Events
Specifically, the global reforecasts are used to force an ensemble of convection allowing WRF-ARW forecasts with the new WRF hydrologic modeling system (WRF-Hydro) coupled underneath. Some events examined during the course of this research are tropical storm Erin in 2007, the 2010 Arkansas MCV caused flood, and the flooding that occurred in San Antonio, TX in 2013. Ensemble analysis methods are used to diagnose atmospheric processes responsible for differences in the TC and MCV track and precipitation forecasts. Then, the way that these differences affect the hydrologic forecasts are examined to assess sensitivities in flood potential to particular atmospheric features. Any results will reflect the ability for downscaled ensemble NWP systems to represent previously unresolved mesoscale features, precipitation totals, and hydrologic responses.