Examination of the Challenges in Weekly to Seasonal Numerical Forecast of the Indian Monsoon

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Thursday, 8 January 2015: 4:45 PM
125AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Nihat Cubukcu, Weather Predict Consulting Inc, Raleigh, NC; and D. Bachiochi and E. Williford

There remain many challenges to the prediction of the onset, strength and progression of the Indian Monsoon on the sub-seasonal scale. Numerical prediction models have vastly improved to better resolve the scales required to capture the nonlinear nature of this feature, but they continue to struggle in consistently predicting the monsoon, even within a month. The advantages of multi-model ensembles have shown further value in capturing the skewed likelihood of occurrence beyond the deterministic range of predictability. In this work, we use a multi-model Superensemble™ technique to explore the opportunities to potentially enhance what is currently available for prediction and further government and private management of interests impacted by the annual monsoon rains.