Special Symposium on the South Asia Monsoon

Program Chairs: Patrick A. Harr , NPS ; Madhavan Rajeevan , Ministry of Earth Sciences

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Saturday, 3 January 2015

7:30 AM-10:00 AM: Saturday, 3 January 2015


Registration for Student Conference and Short Courses
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Sunday, 4 January 2015

7:30 AM-9:00 AM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Registration for Short Courses and Conference for Early Career Professionals
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:00 AM-6:00 PM: Sunday, 4 January 2015


Registration Open for Annual Meeting
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Monday, 5 January 2015

7:30 AM-6:00 PM: Monday, 5 January 2015


Registration Continues through January 7
Location: Lobby of Exhibit Hall 5 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

9:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 5 January 2015

Recording files available
Plenary Session 1
15th Presidential Forum: Will Weather Change Forever—Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
Location: North Ballroom CD (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Hosts: (Joint between the Major Weather Events and Societal Impacts of 2014; the Eugenia Kalnay Symposium; the Harry R. Glahn Symposium; the 31st Conference on Environmental Information Processing Technologies; the 29th Conference on Hydrology; the 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change; the 24th Symposium on Education; the 20th Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography; the 20th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification; the 19th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS); the 19th Conference on Air-Sea Interaction; the 18th Conference on Middle Atmosphere; the 17th Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry; the 17th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology; the 13th Conference on Artificial Intelligence; the 13th Symposium on the Coastal Environment; the 13th History Symposium; the 12th Conference on Space Weather; the 11th Annual Symposium on New Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Systems; the 10th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice; the Eighth Annual CCM Forum: Certified Consulting Meteorologists; the Seventh Symposium on Lidar Atmospheric Applications; the Seventh Conference on the Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data; the Seventh Symposium on Aerosol-Cloud-Climate Interactions; the Sixth Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy; the Sixth Conference on Environment and Health; the Fifth Conference on Transition of Research to Operations; the Fifth Symposium on Advances in Modeling and Analysis Using Python; the Third Annual Conference for Early Career Professionals; the Third Symposium on the Weather and Climate Enterprise; the Third Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Responsiveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events; the Third Symposium on the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation; the Third Symposium on Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Processes, Prediction and Impact; the First Symposium on High Performance Computing for Weather, Water, and Climate; the Special Symposium on Model Postprocessing and Downscaling; the Special Symposium on the South Asia Monsoon; the Air Pollution Meteorology and Human Health Symposium; and the 15th Presidential Forum )
Program Chair: Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA
Moderator: Kimberly E. Klockow, NOAA
Keynote: Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA
Panelists: Bernadette Woods Placky, Climate Central; Mac Devine, IBM Cloud Services Division; Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA; Curtis L. Walker, University of Nebraska

Twenty five years hence, meteorology will be much different and expand far beyond the traditional weather forecast. Personal sensors will monitor weather nearly everywhere. Advanced computing will allow us to forecast at perhaps minute scales and kilometer resolutions, customized for each particular user. Post-mobile devices will enable instantaneous use of the information – even in remote areas of today’s developing nations. Transportation will be safer, businesses will operate more efficiently, events will automatically schedule around anticipated weather, and much more. Operational weather forecasts will be interlaced with new environmental elements that impact economic, health, energy, and security decisions. Many aspects of our daily lives will change forever. Climate change’s possibilities add a critical dimension to community resiliency. Should global weather patterns be altered, forecasting could become more challenging than today. The recent release of the fifth IPCC synthesis report has brought focus to this particular issue. Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA Administrator, will lead the session with a keynote on her vision for the meteorology enterprise in the year 2040. Following her keynote, the panelists - representing different demographics and perspectives - will then provide their vision, accompanied by a moderated discussion among the panelists.
  9:00 AM
William B (Bill) Gail: Introductory remarks
  9:08 AM
Kimberly E. Klockow: Moderator welcoming remarks
  9:16 AM
Dr. Kathryn Sullivan: AMS 2015 Annual Meeting Presidential Forum Keynote
  9:24 AM
Curtis Walker: Will Weather Change Forever – Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
  9:32 AM
Bernadette Woods Placky: Will Weather Change Forever? Anticipating Meteorology in 2040
  9:40 AM
Mac Devine: The Perfect Storm Intensifies - The Convergence of BigData, Cloud and the Internet of Things is Now at Full Strength

Thursday, 8 January 2015

8:30 AM-9:45 AM: Thursday, 8 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 1
Monsoon Variability, Rainfall Distribution
Location: 125AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on the South Asia Monsoon
Cochairs: B. Wang, University of Hawaii; Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland

Papers dealing on Rainfall distribution, impacts and Mitigation and monoon variability
  8:30 AM
1.1
March of Buoyancy Elements during Extreme Monsoon Rainfall
Dr. Tiruvalam N. Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and V. Kumar, A. Simon, A. thomas, A. Bhardwaj, and S. Das
  8:45 AM
1.2
Monsoon and Agriculture in India
Laxman Singh Rathore, NOAA/NWS, New Delhi, N/A = Not Applic, India

  9:15 AM
1.4
The Potential for Microphysical Observations through polarimetric radar in the south Asian monsoon environment: Emerging Opportunities
Chandrasekar V. Chandra, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and S. M. Deshpande, S. K. Das, M. C. Kalapureddy, and K. Chakravarthy

  9:30 AM
1.5
Influence of anthropogenic warming on extremes in the Indian summer monsoon using cluster analysis
Deepti Singh, Stanford University, Stanford, CA; and D. E. Horton and N. S. Diffenbaugh

9:45 AM-11:00 AM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Formal Poster Viewing with Coffee Break
Location: Hall 4 (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Poster Session 1

Poster presentations
 
848
Warm Indian Ocean, Weak Asian Monsoon
Mathew Koll Roxy, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and P. Terray, K. Ritika, R. Murtugudde, A. Karumuri, and B. N. Goswami

Handout (2.3 MB)

 
849
Indo-Pak heavy rainfall events: Role of Indo-Pacific SST and large-scale dynamics
Milind Mujumdar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra , India; and P. Priya, T. Sabin, T. Pascal, and R. Krishnan

 
850
Role of tropical Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean dynamics on Indian summer monsoon rainfall simulation and prediction in CFSv2 coupled model
Gibies George, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and D. N. Rao, C. T. Sabeerali, S. Mahapatra, A. Srivastava, and A. S. Rao
Manuscript (293.8 kB)

 
852
Recent development of Cloud and Convection Parameterization for improved simulation of tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation in Climate Forecast System (CFS) Model
R. Phani, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; and A. Santra, B. B. Goswami, M. Ganai, P. Mukhopadhyay, M. Mahakur, M. F. Khairoutdinov, and B. Goswami

 
853
Investigating the systematic biases on intraseasonal time-scale in NCEP CFSv2 simulated Indian Summer monsoon – an effort of improvement through Superparameterization technique
Bidyut B. Goswami, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and M. S. Deshpande, R. Phani, P. Mukhopadhyay, A. S. Rao, R. Murtugudde, M. F. Khairoutdinov, and B. N. Goswami

 
854
Role of Aerosols in Modulating Cloud Liquid Water During Active-Break Cycle of Indian Summer Monsoon: A Modeling Study
Anwesa Bhattacharya, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India; and A. Chakraborty and V. Venugopal

 
855
Natural and forced Asian monsoon rainfall – SST relationship
Xiaoqiong Li, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and M. Ting

 
856
Impact of model resolution in the Extended Range Prediction of Indian summer monsoon and 2013 North Indian Heavy Rainfall Event
AK Sahai, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and S. Joseph, S. Sharmila, S. Abhilash, N. Borah, R. Chattopadhyay, M. Rajeevan, and A. Kumar

 
857
The influence of lapse rate and moist static energy budget on the vertical structure of the ITCZ
Vishal Dixit, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; and J. Srinivasan

 
858
MONSOON INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY DURING EXTREME YEARS: OBSERVATION & COUPLED MODEL SIMULATION
S. Sharmila, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and A. Sahai, S. Joseph, R. Chattopadhyay, and S. Abhilash

 
860
Observed changes in southwest monsoon rainfall over India during 1901–2011
Madhavan Rajeevan, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India; and P. Guhathakurta

 
861
Dominating Controls for Wetter South Asian Summer Monsoon in the 21st Century
Rui Mei, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and M. Ashfaq, D. Rastogi, L. Y. R. Leung, and F. Dominguez

 
863
CAIPEEX Phase III Ganga Basin experiment: probing the effect of pollution on monsoon clouds
T. V. Prabha, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and Y. Tiwari, P. Murugavel, B. Padmakumari, M. Konwar, C. Subharthi, B. Balaji, R. S. Maheshkumar, P. Safai, P. Rao, S. Nair, E. A. Reshmi, S. Patade, T. Dharmaraj, M. P. Raju, S. G. Narkhedkar, K. Chakravarti, A. Mahajan, S. Tiwari, M. Varghese, A. Srivastava, Gopalakrishnan, S. Chakravarty, D. Siingh, G. Pandithurai, Y. Bhavani Kumar, A. Jayaraman, N. Malap, K. Anandakumar, P. Pradeep Kumar, P. R. Sinha, D. Ojha, B. Raneesh, K. Nandakumar, B. Goswami, and M. Rajeevan

 
864
Increase in resolution is key in improving GCMs over South Asia
Moetasim Ashfaq, ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN; and D. Rastogi, R. Mei, D. Touma, and L. R. Leung

 
866
 
868
Predicting Indian summer monsoon onset over Kerala on extended range using an Ensemble Prediction System based on CFSv2
Susmitha Joseph, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and A. Sahai, S. Abhilash, N. Borah, R. Chattopadhyay, and M. Rajeevan

 
869
A new perspective on the distribution of clouds over the Western Ghats using Doppler weather radar observations
Subrata Kumar Das, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and S. M. Deshpande, K. Chakravarty, and M. C. Kalapureddy

 
870
Dust Induced Radiative effect on Marine Clouds during Monsoon Breaks
Harikishan Gandham, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and B. PadmaKumari, R. S. Maheskumar, and J. R. Kulkarni

 
871
 
872
Real Time Extended Range Prediction of 2013 Indian Summer Monsoon: An Assessment
N. Borah, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and A. Sahai, S. Abhilash, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Joseph, S. Sharmila, and A. Kumar

 
873
Influence of Pre-onset Land-Atmosphere conditions on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall variability
Archana Rai, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and S. K. Saha, S. Pokhrel, and S. Krishna

 
874
How useful is the extra-tropical Sea Surface Temperature in predicting the seasonal mean monsoon over South Asia?
Rajib Chattopadhyay, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and R. Phani, A. S. Rao, and B. N. Goswami

 
875
 
876
Using multipliers that statistically tag errors arising from individual terms of model physics and dynamics in a forecast model for reduction of systematic errors
Sarvesh Kumar Dubey, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. T. N. Krishnamurti, A. Bhardwaj, and A. thomas

 
877
Indian summer monsoon precipitation extremes and their relation with global sea surface temperatures
Jayashree Revadekar, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and H. Varikoden

 
878
Predictability of the South Asian monsoon in the CFSv2 Operational Forecast Model
Subhadeep Halder, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer, L. Marx, and J. L. Kinter III

11:00 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 2
Monsoon Dynamics
Location: 125AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on the South Asia Monsoon
Cochairs: Duane E. Waliser, JPL; Dr. Tiruvalam N. Krishnamurti, Florida State Univ.

Papers dealing in Monsoon Dynamics
  11:00 AM
2.1
Who leads when El Niño Dances with the Indian Monsoon?
Bala Narapusetty, NASA/GSFC/UMD/ESSIC, Greenbelt, MD; and R. Murtugudde, A. Kumar, and H. Wang

  11:15 AM
2.2
Observational aspects of the South Asian Monsoon
G. S. Bhat, Indian Institute of Science Bangalore, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Lunch Break

12:45 PM-1:05 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Daily Weather Briefings
Location: 132AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

1:30 PM-3:00 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 3
Monsoon Predictability-I
Location: 125AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on the South Asia Monsoon
Cochairs: Laxman Singh Rathore, NOAA/NWS; Jagadish Shukla, George Mason Univ./COLA
  1:30 PM
3.1
Improving Monsoon Prediction With a Coupled EnKF Data Assimilation System
Eugenia Kalnay, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and J. Carton, S. G. Penny, D. Hotta, G. Y. Lien, and T. Sluka
  1:45 PM
3.2
Predictable Mode Analysis of Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Predictability
Bin Wang, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Xiang and J. Y. Lee
  2:00 PM
3.3
Bottom boundary currents in rotating beta plane source-sink experiments
Ruby Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. T. N. Krishnamurti
  2:15 PM
3.4
Promises and Prospects for Predicting the South Asian Monsoon
James L. Kinter III, COLA, Fairfax, VA; and P. A. Dirmeyer, B. Huang, E. K. Schneider, R. Bombardi, S. Halder, C. S. Shin, R. Shukla, and B. Singh

  2:45 PM
3.6
Predictability of High Resolution Models in the Indian Monsoon Region
V. Krishnamurthy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA

3:00 PM-3:05 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Registration Closes

3:00 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


Coffee Break
Location: Meeting room foyers (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

Meet the President
Location: 126A (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)

3:30 PM-5:00 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015

Recording files available
Session 4
Monsoon Predictability-II
Location: 125AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Host: Special Symposium on the South Asia Monsoon
Cochairs: Brian E. Mapes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS; Sumant Nigam, University of Maryland

Papers dealing with monsoon prediction
  3:30 PM
4.1
  3:45 PM
4.2
Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in a coarse resolution aquaplanet GCM
Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and A. M. Ravindran and A. J. Majda
  4:00 PM
4.3
Subseasonal-to-seasonal monsoon prediction in the Met Office coupled initialized forecasting system GloSea5
Andrew G. Turner, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and S. J. Bush, G. M. Martin, and S. J. Woolnough
  4:15 PM
4.4
Efforts on Seasonal Forecasts under the Monsoon Mission
Suryachandra Rao Anguluri, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India; and A. Hazra, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Ali, A. Dhakate, G. George, K. Saluknke, R. Dandi, and S. Mahapatra
  4:30 PM
4.5
Development of CFS based Grand Ensemble Prediction System for the Extended Range Forecasting of Indian Summer Monsoon
S. Abhilash, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; and A. Sahai, N. Borah, S. Joseph, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Sharmila, M. Rajeevan, B. E. Mapes, and A. Kumar
  4:45 PM
4.6
Examination of the Challenges in Weekly to Seasonal Numerical Forecast of the Indian Monsoon
Nihat Cubukcu, Weather Predict Consulting Inc, Raleigh, NC; and D. Bachiochi and E. Williford

5:00 PM-5:05 PM: Thursday, 8 January 2015


AMS 95th Annual Meeting Adjourns