Prediction of boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation in CFSv2: Importance of convection parameterizations and realistic SSTs

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Thursday, 8 January 2015: 3:30 PM
125AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Arun Kumar, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD; and R. Murtugudde, M. Peng, and W. Wang

This study investigates the predictability of the boreal summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO). We first analyze the prediction of the MISO in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcasts. We then study the dependence of the prediction on the convection parameterizations and the specification of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to explore the predictability potential of the forecast system. Various previous studies have demonstrated that both convection parameterizations and air-sea interaction affect the simulation of the observed intraseasonal variability. In this study, we examine how the evolution of the MISO depends on the underlying SSTs through initialized forecast experiments with the NCEP atmospheric Global Forecast System (GFS). Different convection parameterizations are used to test how the SST impact depends on the model physics.