An assessment of a forecast tool for convective weather impacts at the TRACON scale

Certain CWSU offices produce a TRACON Approach and Departure Gate Forecast product communicating potential convection-based impacts to sectors within the TRACON using a traffic light format. The Forecast Impact and Quality Assessment Section was tasked with developing verification techniques for these forecasts, ultimately to be incorporated into an automated verification tool.

A preliminary demonstration of techniques was performed using simulated forecast output for the Atlanta Hartsfield and Charlotte Douglas international airports as an example. Verification techniques included traditional metrics applied to sector coverage categories as well as techniques to measure the forecast's ability to identify events with respect to lead time to event onset and cessation. An overview of the forecast output and characteristics will be provided, as well as a discussion of the approaches that can be used to verify such a product.