6.5
Employing Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts into the Operational Colorado Flood Threat Bulletin
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Here, we compare the performance of our subjective daily Flood Threat Bulletin prepared for the Colorado Water Conservation Board, with a purely objective analogue developed from a 23-member ensemble of atmospheric models with horizontal resolution ranging from 4-km to 16-km. Validation spans the 2014 warm season, 1 May – 31 Sep, and is based upon both individual National Weather Service flood reports as well as gridded precipitation estimates, to ensure coverage in poorly observed areas. We show a range of validation metrics assessing both probability and spatial coverage of QPF. Broadly, results suggest that a purely objective approach is not yet operationally feasible due to an underestimate of short-term heavy rainfall, likely due to insufficient model resolution.